You Can't Overtake Us

**You Can't Overtake Us**

Kazakhstan has maintained its status as the largest economy in Central Asia for many years. This is not just a formal title: behind it lie real GDP volumes, significant foreign trade turnover, large-scale infrastructure projects, and serious industrial potential. But how does the country manage to maintain its leadership in a region where other states are also actively accelerating their development?

### Scale and Figures

In terms of gross domestic product, Kazakhstan is noticeably ahead of its neighboring countries. The republic's economy relies on several strong areas at once: oil and gas extraction, metallurgy, agriculture, transport and logistics services, and a gradually expanding service sector. The geographical location also plays an important role: Kazakhstan acts as a transit bridge between China, Russia, and Europe, and the country actively utilizes this factor. The development of transport corridors, including routes through the Caspian Sea and railways towards China, makes Kazakhstan a crucial link in international cargo flows.

As reported by Dastan Akebayev, Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC "Institute of Economic Research," over the past five years, the real growth of Kazakhstan's economy amounted to 21.3%. At the same time, the expansion of the economy's scale is accompanied by gradual structural shifts — the role of the manufacturing industry, entrepreneurship, investment, and the domestic market is strengthening.

The expert cited data according to which in 2025, production volume in the manufacturing industry reached 30.7 trillion tenge. Compared to 2021, the industrial production index in this sector increased by 23.4%.

Positive dynamics, he added, are also observed in the GDP per capita indicator. In 2025, it amounted to 7.8 million tenge, or more than 15 thousand US dollars. Compared to 2021, the indicator grew by 77.2% in tenge, and by 44.7% in dollar terms.

"The increase in the scale of the economy is accompanied by gradual structural changes — the role of the manufacturing industry, entrepreneurship, investment, and the domestic market is increasing," the expert said.

### Resources as a Foundation

The raw materials sector remains the backbone of the economy. Oil, metals, uranium — these are commodities in demand on global markets. At the same time, Kazakhstan does not limit itself to extraction and export: oil refineries, metallurgical plants, and mineral processing enterprises operate in the country. Such processing increases added value and reduces dependence on the sale of "raw" materials.

But high dependence on commodity markets also carries risks: prices for oil and metals can fluctuate sharply, and with them, budget revenues. Therefore, in recent years, diversification has been increasingly discussed in Kazakhstan: developing non-resource sectors, supporting small and medium-sized businesses, and attracting investment to new sectors.

Today, many analysts note that Kazakhstan is gradually reducing its dependence on the resource sector. Emin Garibli, an expert from Azerbaijan, emphasizes that the dynamics of the country's key industries in the first half of the year confirmed steady growth, and reforms aimed at attracting investment are yielding results — in the competitive struggle, the Kazakh economy is ahead of a number of its neighbors.

Political scientist Eduard Poletayev added that the growth of the manufacturing industry, which is approaching 10%, and other indicators speak of a desire to increase competitiveness, accelerate modernization, and digitalization.

Jasmin Abdul, Editor-in-Chief of the World Impact Media Organization, noted in an analytical report that the country's economy is becoming less dependent on a single resource sector. Investment projects, manufacturing, logistics, energy infrastructure, and modern services are playing an increasingly important role. She emphasized that Kazakhstan is growing through investment, industry, and services, and not just through raw materials.

### Investments and Partnerships

Kazakhstan's economy is closely linked to international markets. Large foreign companies operate in the country, and joint projects are implemented with investors from various states. To attract capital, special economic zones are created, administrative procedures are simplified, and the legislative framework is being developed. Cooperation within regional associations — the EAEU and other formats that facilitate trade and the movement of labor — also remains an important factor.

Experts attribute part of the success to the improvement of the investment climate. They point to specific steps: the updated Investment Policy Concept until 2030, the work of the Investment Headquarters, the launch of the National Digital Investment Platform, and investment agreement mechanisms for large projects. Special economic and industrial zones are mentioned separately, as well as the role of the Astana International Financial Centre (which operates on the principles of English law and offers independent dispute resolution).

The authors of an article on the analytical portal Investing.com note: for investors today, not only profit is important, but also the quality of state institutions, predictability of policy, and long-term stability. Kazakhstan, in their assessment, has managed to adapt to these new conditions and maintain competitiveness. In confirmation, data was presented: in the first half of 2026, investment in fixed assets grew by 9.6%, private investment by more than 21%, and the country rose 17 positions in the Safest Countries for Investors 2026 ranking.

### Industry and Technology

In addition to the extractive sector, mechanical engineering, the production of building materials, and the food industry are developed in Kazakhstan. In recent years, interest in digitalization, the development of the IT sector, and the introduction of new technologies in traditional industries has been growing. This helps to increase production efficiency and create new jobs.

Special attention is paid to logistics and transport: new roads are being built, ports and railway hubs are being modernized, and the capacity of transit routes is being increased. Such projects not only improve domestic infrastructure but also make the country more attractive for international freight transport.

### Agriculture and Food Security

Kazakhstan is one of the largest grain exporters in the world. Fertile lands and developed agriculture make it possible not only to meet domestic needs but also to supply products to foreign markets. In addition to grain, the country produces meat, milk, vegetables, and is developing the processing of agricultural products. This is an important element of economic stability: even with fluctuations in oil prices, the agricultural sector remains a stable source of income and employment.

### Challenges and Prospects

Despite its strong position, Kazakhstan's economy faces a number of tasks. Among them are reducing dependence on resource exports, increasing labor productivity, developing high-tech industries, and improving the business climate. Supporting innovation and developing human capital — education, science, and training of qualified personnel — remain important directions.

Another challenge is regional disparities: large cities and resource-rich regions are developing faster than rural areas. Narrowing this gap requires targeted development programs, infrastructure investments, and social projects.

Experts do not turn a blind eye to existing difficulties. Ramazan Dosov, chief analyst of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan, notes that the sustainability of growth depends on whether the private sector can maintain investment activity against the backdrop of a higher tax burden, tight monetary conditions, and weak dynamics of real household incomes. He also points to the dual effect of the tax reform: it strengthens the state's revenue base, but at the same time increases business costs.

The issue of logistical risks is particularly acute. Experts draw attention to the vulnerability of transport arteries, in particular the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC): about 80% of oil export volumes pass through it, and disruptions on the route quickly affect production, foreign exchange earnings, and budget revenues. Dosov emphasizes that the main risk arises in the event of a prolonged limitation of the CPC's capacity, as alternative routes cannot yet fully replace its volumes.

### The Secret of Leadership Remains

Kazakhstan's leading position in Central Asia is the result of a combination of several factors:

- A rich resource base provides the country with powerful export potential.

- A favorable geographical position allows for the development of transport and logistics, earning from transit.

- A large-scale industrial base supports employment and generates added value within the country.

- Openness to investment and participation in international economic projects strengthen positions in foreign markets.

At the same time, the country does not stop there: diversification programs, the development of non-resource sectors, and the modernization of infrastructure should make the economy more resilient and competitive in the long term.

Analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) in their reviews point to positive macroeconomic factors that help maintain stability. They note that a low level of public debt, significant external reserves, and steady economic growth provide the country with comfortable access to international capital and create conditions for raising the sovereign rating. As an example, they cite the upgrade of the S&P Global Ratings rating from "BBB-" to "BBB" with a "stable" outlook.

Thus, the status of the region's largest economy is not an accident for Kazakhstan, but the result of many years of work to develop key industries, attract investment, and build beneficial foreign economic relations. And although many challenges lie ahead, the accumulated potential and strategic priorities give reason to believe that the country will be able to maintain its position and continue to develop in changing economic conditions.