Why a US-Russia showdown left Morocco celebrating

Why a US-Russia standoff left Morocco celebrating

Morocco says Western Sahara is part of its territory

Morocco has welcomed the end of a UN peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara that had lasted for decades, after a diplomatic clash between the US and Russia left the Security Council unable to agree on what should happen next.

On Friday, the council failed to renew the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (Minurso) after Russia vetoed a US-backed draft. A competing Russian proposal to prolong the mission also did not win enough support.

The outcome raises fresh questions about the future of Africa’s longest-running territorial dispute and the fragile ceasefire between Morocco, which claims Western Sahara, and the Polisario Front, which has fought for the territory’s independence for more than 50 years.

Western Sahara, on Africa’s north-west coast, was a Spanish colony until 1975. It holds major phosphate deposits and valuable fishing grounds along its Atlantic shoreline.

As Spain prepared to leave, both Morocco and Mauritania laid claim to the territory.

The International Court of Justice found historical ties of allegiance, but no territorial sovereignty that overrode the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination.

Morocco’s then King Hassan II answered by organising the Green March. On 6 November 1975, around 350,000 Moroccan civilians entered the territory in a mass demonstration meant to pressure Spain.

A few days later, Spain signed the Madrid Accords with Morocco and Mauritania, agreeing to hand over administrative control. Morocco took the northern two-thirds and Mauritania the southern third. The deal did not resolve the issue of sovereignty.

The Polisario Front, an independence movement founded in 1973, opposed the agreement. It viewed it as replacing Spanish colonial rule with Moroccan and Mauritanian control.

Mauritania gave up its claim in 1979, but Morocco kept fighting Polisario.

Algeria became Polisario’s main regional ally, offering military support and hosting its leadership and thousands of Sahrawi refugees in camps near Tindouf.

The North African country says its stance is rooted in the right to self-determination, while Morocco regards Western Sahara as an integral part of its territory.

Morocco and Algeria fought a brief border war in 1963 over disputes about territory inherited from French colonial rule. Their ties have remained strained, with Western Sahara at the heart of the disagreement.

After 16 years of fighting, Morocco and Polisario agreed to a UN-brokered ceasefire in 1991, with the territory split by a sand wall, or berm, to keep the rival forces apart.

The UN created Minurso to monitor the ceasefire and organise a referendum on the territory’s future. Sahrawis were supposed to choose between independence and integration with Morocco.

The vote was planned for 1992 but never happened. The two sides could not agree on who should be allowed to take part, and disputes over voter identification became a major obstacle.

In 2007, Morocco presented an autonomy proposal under which Sahrawis would manage their internal affairs while Rabat kept control of defence and foreign relations.

The Polisario Front and Algeria rejected the plan, insisting on a referendum that included independence as an option.

Years of UN-led talks failed to produce a breakthrough.

The ceasefire collapsed in November 2020, when Polisario said it was resuming armed struggle.

But after a long diplomatic campaign by Morocco, the UN Security Council voted in 2025 for a resolution supporting the autonomy plan as the "most feasible" solution for the disputed territory.

While most Sahrawis live in the part of Western Sahara controlled by Morocco, tens of thousands are believed to be in refugee camps in Algeria.

The US proposed extending Minurso’s mandate for another year, but its draft went beyond a routine renewal.

It would have removed the word "referendum" from the mission’s name and made Morocco’s autonomy proposal the only basis for further negotiations.

The draft won support from 11 of the Security Council’s 15 members, including France and the UK, but Russia vetoed it, saying it was too favourable to Morocco.

Russia then put forward a proposal to extend Minurso’s mandate without altering its terms. That draft also failed, receiving only two votes in favour.

Minurso’s mandate expired at the end of Saturday, 31 October. The UN said the next day that the mission had entered a liquidation period, with a reduced team overseeing the transfer of military equipment and other assets.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination must be respected and warned of the danger of renewed hostilities.

The Polisario Front condemned the US proposal. Its representative, Sidi Omar, thanked Russia for vetoing it, saying it would "torpedo the foundations of the UN peace process" and threaten regional and international peace.

Morocco, meanwhile, said the mission’s staff and equipment should leave the territory in the coming days, arguing that the Western Sahara issue should no longer be considered by the Security Council.

According to a UN report, Minurso had 155 military personnel and was expected to cost $62m (£46m) in the financial year beginning in June.

Morocco’s royal palace welcomed the failure to renew Minurso’s mandate.

In Laayoune, the territory’s largest city, footage showed people celebrating, waving Moroccan flags and displaying portraits of King Mohammed VI.

"The decision is an opportunity for Rabat to challenge what it sees as an international mechanism that has failed to resolve the dispute," Issam Laaroussi, a Moroccan expert in international relations, tells the BBC.

He said Morocco would now have more room to advance its autonomy proposal and move negotiations away from a referendum on independence toward autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty.

However, the decision does not alter Western Sahara’s legal status or amount to international recognition of Moroccan sovereignty.

Western Sahara remains on the UN list of non-self-governing territories, while the African Union officially recognises its independence as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

Still, the decision follows support for Morocco’s position from several countries, as Rabat has in recent years made winning international backing for its claim a central part of its foreign policy.

In 2020, the US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara as part of an agreement to establish diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel.

France also backed Morocco’s autonomy plan as the basis for resolving the dispute in 2024.

Morocco rejoined the African Union in 2017, more than three decades after leaving its predecessor, the Organisation of African Unity, in protest at the SADR’s admission.

Since returning, Rabat has tried to build support for its position within the organisation. At least 10 African countries have opened diplomatic missions in the territory in support of Rabat.

"Morocco is not necessarily seeking to abandon the UN process, but to change the framework for negotiations and draw greater support from regional organisations," says Laaroussi.

Speaking at a special joint session of parliament on Monday, House of Representatives Speaker Ahmed Touizi praised the end of Minurso as a victory for the country’s diplomacy.

He said the country should now move from "managing the dispute to implementing its autonomy plan under Moroccan sovereignty, while pressing ahead with development projects in the territory."

There are fears that Minurso’s departure could lead to renewed fighting.

The mission has monitored military developments and helped lower the risk of escalation.

Aid organisation Oxfam warned that losing its monitoring and de-escalation role could weaken stability, with serious consequences for civilians.

Laaroussi acknowledges that the mission’s departure could create security gaps.

"Minurso's departure does not create the original conflict, because the conflict is already there, but it could aggravate an already fragile security environment," he says.

The UN decision has also stirred nationalist rhetoric online.

Several Moroccan users have shared AI-generated images of themselves in military uniform, saying they are ready to fight for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.

In Morocco, Western Sahara is widely seen as a national cause. Political parties that are often divided on other issues are united in backing the country’s claim to sovereignty over the territory.

Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita has said the end of the mission does not mean the end of the ceasefire, and that Rabat remains committed to it "within respect of its security and sovereignty."

Polisario has not said what it will do next.

Any return to fighting could draw in Algeria, as tensions with Morocco remain high.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), both countries sharply increased military spending last year, with SIPRI citing their dispute over Western Sahara as a major driver.

Algeria spent an estimated $25.4bn, more than four time Morocco’s $6.3bn.