Uzbekistan may fall short of 3.5 billion kilowatt-hours of solar and wind energy – EDB

**Uzbekistan Could Shortfall 3.5 Billion Kilowatt-Hours of Solar and Wind Energy – EDB**

By 2028, Uzbekistan risks facing a forced reduction in output at solar and wind power plants due to the power system's limited capacity to accept and transmit electricity. As follows from the country's power system development plan for 2026–2028, cited in a report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), losses could amount to about 3.5 billion kilowatt-hours. A portion of these losses could be reduced through more efficient electricity exchange among Central Asian countries; however, this requires strengthening domestic grids, developing digital management, and aligning trading rules.

In the new EDB report, experts emphasize that Central Asian countries need not only to build new power plants, but also to develop grids that allow the produced electricity to be transmitted to where it is needed. To achieve this, it is proposed to modernize infrastructure, align power system management, and expand cross-border electricity trade.

For Uzbekistan, this task becomes especially critical as solar and wind generation grows. If grids, reserves, and trading mechanisms are not developed simultaneously with the commissioning of new capacity, a portion of the potential output will have to be curtailed, even if there is demand for electricity in other areas or countries of the region.

### What Prevents Uzbekistan from Using All Generated Energy?

Power plants are capable of producing more than the power system can accept. In certain periods, it fails to absorb all available electricity, transmit it to the required areas, or balance it with current consumption.

This is especially true for solar and wind power plants, as their output depends on the weather and time of day. If the grid is overloaded during hours of high generation, and demand and the capabilities of other power plants do not allow the surplus to be distributed, the operator has to limit the production of a portion of the RES (renewable energy sources). In other words, the plants could have generated more electricity, but part of the potential generation will never be produced. In the report, this is referred to as forced output curtailment.

According to the report, the reasons are not limited to grid overloads: power plants are often built in areas with limited local demand and insufficient power export capacity; traditional power plants cannot lower their load below their technological minimum; the system lacks fast-acting reserves; and short-term trading and balancing are poorly developed.

The scale of the problem is demonstrated by Uzbekistan's power system development plan for 2026–2028, referenced in the report. In 2026, forced curtailments are estimated at approximately 2.2 billion kilowatt-hours, in 2027 at 3 billion, and in 2028 at nearly 3.5 billion. On an annual basis, this represents 13.6–14.2% of potential RES generation—meaning roughly every seventh kilowatt-hour that the plants could produce.

The EDB considers these figures a lower bound. The calculation is based on the assumption that by 2028, the installed RES capacity in Uzbekistan will reach about 11.4 gigawatts. However, the government target for 2030 is significantly higher: 25 gigawatts. If power plants are commissioned faster than grids, storage systems, and balancing mechanisms are developed, losses will increase: according to the authors of the report, each additional gigawatt above the baseline scenario adds approximately 300 million kilowatt-hours of curtailments per year. Furthermore, with a high share of solar and wind generation, curtailments usually grow faster than linearly, so the actual volume could end up being larger.

### In Which Months Might the Problem Be Most Acute?

Forced curtailments are unevenly distributed throughout the year. The bulk of them occur between May and October: during these months, solar and wind generation is high, while electricity demand is moderate, making it difficult for the system to utilize all available output.

The highest figures occur during periods of transitional demand. In May, 37.5% of the monthly potential RES output is curtailed, and in September, 45.7%. The summer increase in load due to cooling systems partially reduces curtailments: in June they account for 6.4%, in July 5.2%, and in August 14.1%. In winter, curtailments are minimal: 0% in January and 1.1% in December, as RES output is lower and heating demand is stable.

At the same time, these figures are projections and apply to the year 2028 under Uzbekistan's power system development plan for 2026–2028, cited in the EDB report.

The graph shows when the system will particularly need the capability to redistribute electricity between regions and countries, as well as to store surpluses for later use.

### Uzbekistan Is Not the Only One Facing Curtailments

The problem of regional energy is tied not only to the volume of electricity generated, but also to how much of the installed capacity is available during peak demand hours and how efficiently it can be delivered to consumers. The operation of power systems is also affected by the availability of reserves, the technical condition of equipment, and the ability to regulate output.

The EDB report provides data on the operation of the Central Asian Unified Power System during the hour of the annual peak load—December 10, 2024, at 19:00. With an installed capacity of 36.4 gigawatts, the available capacity stood at 28.8 gigawatts. The volume of unavailable or restricted capacity reached 6.6 gigawatts, with another 0.85 gigawatts undergoing repairs.

Among the causes of limitations, the authors name fuel shortages, lack of hydro resources, cold reserves at thermal power plants, thermal consumption constraints, and the technical condition of equipment. Meanwhile, the problems vary by country. In Uzbekistan, risks are primarily linked to gas availability and pressure in the gas transmission system. In Kyrgyzstan, power generation and regulation capabilities depend on water resources and growing domestic consumption. In Tajikistan, one of the key constraints remains the throughput capacity of grid infrastructure, which hinders the transmission of part of its hydropower.

These factors complicate electricity exchange between the region's countries. Even if one country has spare generation, transmitting it to neighbors depends on grid throughput, the availability of cross-border lines, and the alignment of power system operating modes. Therefore, developing regional trade requires not only boosting generation, but also eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks and improving inter-country coordination.

### Grids Are Already Operating Under Constraints

The EDB report also cites data on power flows during the autumn-winter period of 2024–2025. On several monitored grid sections, actual power flows exceeded permissible levels. For instance, in the Fergana energy hub on the Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan route, the power flow reached 2,940 MW against a permissible level of 1,800/2,600 MW, which was 113% of the upper limit. On the Sugdiana – Guzar – Talimarjan section inside Uzbekistan, the figure reached 1,570 MW against a permissible 1,500 MW, or 105%.

These data show that increasing electricity transmission volumes requires eliminating constraints on both cross-border lines and within national power systems. In addition to modernizing and constructing grids, the EDB suggests developing digital monitoring, improving calculations of permissible power flows, and enhancing the coordination of power system operation modes. Such measures will help improve grid controllability and make more efficient use of existing capacity, though they do not eliminate the need to physically reinforce infrastructure on overloaded sections.

### How Can Regional Exchange Help Uzbekistan?

One way to reduce electricity losses resulting from RES generation curtailments is to make more effective use of the Central Asian Unified Power System. With coordinated operations among countries, surplus electricity in one power system can be directed to where demand persists. However, the potential for such trade depends on grid throughput, the availability of accessible reserves, and agreed-upon trading rules.

According to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), in 2024, the total volume of regional electricity trade in the Central Asian Unified Power System amounted to 12.1 billion kilowatt-hours. This corresponded to 8.5% of total electricity consumption in the region.

For comparison, the share of cross-border trade in electricity consumption in 2024 was 17.5% in the European Union, 16.3% in Italy, and 10.5% in the United Kingdom. In Canada, this figure reached 9.6%, and in the US PJM market, it was 8.2%. At the same time, power systems and market organization principles in these countries differ, so these figures do not serve as a direct benchmark for Central Asia. Nevertheless, the comparison demonstrates that regional electricity exchange could play a more prominent role in securing energy supply.

For Uzbekistan, regional coordination is especially vital due to the growth of solar generation. During daytime hours, it can create a power surplus, whereas the peak of residual load in the region often falls in the evening. According to EDB estimates, the joint utilization of hydroelectric power plants, energy storage systems, flexible thermal generation, and cross-system interconnections will help smooth these fluctuations and reduce forced RES curtailments.

At the same time, electricity trading alone is not enough. Effective exchange requires more accurate generation and consumption forecasts, coordinated dispatch management, and sufficient grid throughput capacity. Energy storage can also help shift part of the daytime solar generation to evening hours when demand rises.

### Why Are Energy Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro Power Plants Needed?

Another way to reduce renewable energy curtailments is to shift part of the daytime generation to hours of increased demand. Energy storage systems and pumped-storage hydroelectric power plants (PSPPs) can be used for this purpose.

The EDB report examines four PSPP projects being developed by JSC Uzbekhydroenergo. Their combined capacity is 1.6 GW, with a total estimated cost of about $2.2 billion. The list includes the Upper Pskem PSPP with a capacity of 600 MW, Khojakent — 200 MW, Karateren — 500 MW, and Aydarkul — 300 MW.

According to the report's authors, these projects could provide up to 2.8 billion kWh of output per year and create additional capabilities for daily power system balancing and renewable energy integration.

PSPPs allow electricity to be used during surplus hours to pump water into an upper reservoir, and then generate electricity when demand rises. In the context of expanding solar generation, this makes it possible to transfer part of the daytime surplus to evening hours.

However, for now, these projects should be viewed as prospective rather than already implemented assets. The EDB notes that their actual efficiency needs to be confirmed by calculations that take into account round-trip efficiency, grid availability, hydrological conditions, and capital expenditures.

### What Prevents More Efficient Energy Use in the Region?

The main conclusion of the EDB report is that simply scaling up power plant capacity is not enough to ensure reliable energy supply in Central Asia. It is also necessary to guarantee generation availability, develop transmission grids between regions and countries, and increase the flexibility of power systems.

For Uzbekistan, this issue is particularly urgent against the backdrop of solar and wind energy development. According to the forecast cited in the report, forced RES curtailments could reach 3.5 billion kWh by 2028. The calculation is based on the country's power system development plan for 2026–2028 and assumes the commissioning of about 11.4 GW of renewable capacity by 2028. If the actual pace of power plant construction exceeds the baseline forecast, the volume of curtailments could be even greater.

Developing regional cooperation will help reduce losses. Expanding electricity trade, coordinating the management of cross-border power flows, and sharing reserves will make it possible to distribute available capacity more efficiently and offset generation surpluses or deficits in different countries. This will require investment in power grids and energy storage, improved data exchange, and more harmonized operating rules for power systems.

Thus, the key task for Central Asian countries is not only to increase electricity production, but also to create conditions for its reliable transmission and efficient use. For Uzbekistan, solving this task is of particular significance as the share of renewable sources in its energy mix grows.