IMRI proposed a new approach to forecasting regional economies

The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRS) has presented an innovative method for forecasting regional economies.

The Institute for Macroeconomic and Regional Studies (IMRS), in collaboration with think tanks, is developing a unified methodological approach for assessing and forecasting economic growth in Uzbekistan's regions through 2030. According to the IMRS, this methodology includes an assessment of three development scenarios—inertial, target, and passive—taking into account potential growth factors and economic risks.

The proposed approach aims to more broadly utilize economic forecasting in management decision-making. Unlike a simple analysis of current trends, this methodology allows for identifying factors contributing to the achievement of established indicators, determining the resources required, and assessing the risks that could impact growth rates.

The inertial scenario demonstrates the likely dynamics of the regional economy if current trends continue. The target scenario allows for the assessment of additional investment, required production capacity, and structural reforms necessary to achieve the target indicators.

The passive scenario, in turn, is designed to assess potential losses in economic growth should risks arise in domestic and foreign markets. Thus, forecasting is viewed not only as an estimate of future indicators, but also as a tool for managing economic risks and selecting optimal solutions to achieve goals.

During a training seminar organized by the Institute for Regional Development, experts from analytical centers studied the proposed methodology using practical calculations. Participants also discussed ways to further refine it, taking into account the specific characteristics of individual regions.

The ultimate goal of this work is to create a unified analytical system that will identify specific drivers of economic growth for each region, direct investments and other resources to priority areas, and evaluate the results of economic policy.

This system is designed to link economic forecasting with practical decisions on regional development and assess the effectiveness of these measures.