Gold below $4,000, silver collapsed by 20%: what changed in the metals market in October
Over the past few weeks, the metals market has changed noticeably. While in early October industrial metals remained near multi-year highs and precious metals were attempting to recover, by November almost the entire sector found itself under pressure.
Gold dropped below $4,000, silver crashed by 20%: what happened in the metals market in October
Over recent weeks, the metals market has restructured noticeably. While in early October industrial metals hovered near multi-year highs and precious metals tried to recover losses, by November almost the entire sector came under pressure.
Inflation risks, expectations of a tighter Fed policy, and a sell-off in the stock market—especially in the tech segment—became key drivers.
Against this backdrop, gold and silver fell sharply, copper retreated from record levels, and aluminum gave up part of its previous gains. Zinc remains the exception, supported by supply constraints.
Gold fell to $3,930 per ounce, dropping below the psychologically important $4,000 mark. Over the month, the metal lost about 5%.
Silver looks even weaker: quotes plummeted to $49.8 per ounce (-18.5% over the month). Pressure stems from a strong dollar, high US bond yields, and expectations of further policy tightening by the Fed. At the same time, geopolitics no longer provides precious metals with their usual support.
The conflict in the Middle East is keeping oil prices high, amplifying inflation concerns. Investors' attention is now focused on the outcome of the US midterm elections and fresh employment statistics, which could influence expectations ahead of the December Fed meeting.
Platinum and palladium also suffered a tough October. Platinum fell to $1,420 per ounce, losing about 18% over the month, while palladium dropped to $930 per ounce, with the decline exceeding 20%. The situation is aggravated by uncertainty regarding demand from the automotive industry.
High rates and expensive energy could restrain car sales, while the adoption of electric vehicles is gradually reducing the need for traditional catalysts. Meanwhile, the outlook for the platinum market has shifted: a surplus of about 265,000 ounces is now expected in 2026, although accumulated inventories remain small after several years of deficit.
Copper fell to $6.38 per pound, losing about 3% over the month, but is still up 30% year-on-year. Investors have become more cautious in evaluating the prospects of artificial intelligence and large-scale investments in data centers following the sell-off in tech stocks.
At the same time, copper stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses rose to a four-month high, slightly easing earlier concerns about a deficit.
Nevertheless, long-term support remains: mining in Chile remains constrained, and energy, power grids, and tech infrastructure still require large volumes of the metal.
Aluminum dropped to $3,045 per ton, remaining near multi-month lows. The market is gradually abandoning previous fears of a severe supply deficit.
Producers in the Middle East are restoring capacity, China is ramping up output and exports, and additional volumes are coming from Indonesia.
This reduces the risk of a deficit that was supporting prices back in the summer. Zinc looks more resilient: the metal is holding near $3,790 per ton thanks to limited supply, high energy costs for producers, and relatively low warehouse stocks.
Overall, October showed that even a supply deficit does not guarantee sustained growth for metals. Precious metals currently depend primarily on the Fed and the dollar, while industrial metals rely on real demand, inventories, and global economic prospects.
Long-term supporting factors, including the development of energy infrastructure and artificial intelligence, remain intact.
However, for stable growth to return, the market needs confidence that high rates and expensive energy will not lead to a serious slowdown in global demand.