Enemies are a temporary thing

Five years after the fall of the Western-backed government and the withdrawal of American troops, the Taliban-led Afghan government has publicly proposed restoring relations with the United States. This proposal does not involve the return of military forces, but rather the opening of an embassy, the presence of diplomats, and investment in infrastructure and mineral extraction. According to The New York Times, Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi made this proposal in an interview in Kabul.

"We believe that the chapter of war has ended, and now we want a relationship based on mutual respect and a new chapter of positive engagement," Muttaqi stated. He suggested that the United States could reopen its embassy in the Afghan capital, maintain a diplomatic presence, and invest in natural resource development, dam construction, and highway construction.

Muttaqi emphasized that a possible restoration of relations with Washington does not presuppose a foreign military presence. He stated that the Afghans will not agree to the deployment of foreign troops on their territory. This remark is also directed at US President Donald Trump, who has previously publicly spoken of the need to return American control of Bagram Air Base. This facility, located north of Kabul, was the most important US military base in Afghanistan for nearly two decades.

The Taliban also refused to comply with other demands of the US administration: the return of American weapons abandoned in Afghanistan and the release of Mahmoud Habibi, a US-Afghan citizen who went missing in Kabul in 2022. Washington believes Habibi was detained by Afghan intelligence services, but authorities in Kabul deny this.

Against this backdrop, the White House has not moved closer to political recognition of the Taliban over the past year. Instead, it has imposed additional restrictions on relations with Afghanistan: it has suspended visas for Afghan citizens, banned them from entering the US, and added the Taliban to a list of entities linked to the unlawful detention of Americans.

The US State Department, for its part, told The New York Times that it is not considering normalizing relations with the Taliban. The department believes that the current Afghan authorities have failed to fulfill their promises to ensure security and combat international terrorist groups.

The American side also fears that Afghan territory could again be used as a base for staging attacks outside the country. The State Department emphasized that contacts with the Taliban will only be possible when they serve US interests.

At the same time, authorities in Kabul are seeking to expand external ties without waiting for recognition from Washington and European countries. As The New York Times points out, over the past year, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has concluded a defense cooperation agreement with Russia, signed dozens of trade agreements with its Central Asian neighbors, including Uzbekistan, and maintains contacts with the Persian Gulf countries.

Migration diplomacy with Europe has become a separate focus. Afghan authorities are negotiating with Germany, France, and other EU countries regarding the repatriation of rejected Afghan asylum seekers and migrants convicted of crimes. In June, a delegation of five Afghan diplomats met in Brussels with more than 20 representatives from 15 EU countries. The parties discussed a mechanism for the repatriation of rejected asylum seekers and convicted Afghan citizens.

For European governments, these contacts are primarily of a practical migration nature and do not constitute recognition of the current authorities in Kabul. No European country recognizes the current Afghan administration as legitimate, and the country itself is effectively excluded from key international institutions, including the UN and the International Monetary Fund. The United States has also frozen billions of dollars in assets held by the Central Bank of Afghanistan, limiting Kabul's ability to conduct meaningful financial and economic policies.

Nevertheless, the Taliban hope that US interest in Afghan mineral resources could form the basis for a new deal.

Afghanistan has significant reserves of lithium, copper, iron ore, rare earth elements, and other resources used in the production of electronics, batteries, energy equipment, and defense industries. Amid US competition with China for access to critical raw materials, Kabul is inviting American companies to participate in the development of these deposits.

However, previous experience shows that developing Afghanistan's resources is fraught with significant risks. From 2004 to 2021, the US invested nearly $1 billion in developing the country's mining industry, but according to a report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, this has not yielded significant results. Obstacles cited included war, weak state institutions, corruption, lack of infrastructure, complex logistics, and security issues. After the Taliban came to power, companies from China, Iran, and Qatar entered into mining agreements.

Some American analysts and former diplomats believe that Washington should discuss with Kabul more than just prisoner exchanges and the fight against the Islamic State group. In their view, a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan could help the United States obtain more reliable information about the situation in the country, maintain ties with Central Asian states, curb the influence of Russia and China, and stake a claim on projects related to critical minerals.

But the main obstacle remains the Taliban's domestic politics. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for the movement's supreme leader, Haibatullah Akhundzada, on charges of crimes against humanity related to the persecution of women and girls. Since returning to power, the Taliban have banned girls from attending secondary school and university, severely restricting women's employment, travel, and participation in public life. These measures have become one of the key reasons why Western countries are reluctant to recognize the Afghan government.

During the interview, Muttaqi did not directly answer the question of whether discrimination against women and girls hinders international recognition. He previously called the ban on secondary education for girls a temporary measure. However, the Taliban used similar language during their first rule from 1996 to 2001, and immediately after returning to power in 2021, without subsequently lifting the bans.

Thus, Kabul's offer to the United States reflects not so much the Taliban's willingness to change its domestic policies as an attempt to gain investment, diplomatic channels, and partial legitimacy without making significant concessions. Washington may be interested in mineral resources, security, and rivalry with China and Russia, but for a full rapprochement, the Taliban would have to change the most stringent restrictions, particularly those against women. So far, there are no signs of such willingness.