By 2040, the number of births in Uzbekistan may exceed 1 million per year

By 2040, the number of births in Uzbekistan may exceed 1 million per year

The "Family and Gender" Research Institute has presented a long-term forecast on fertility rates. According to the results of the study, the number of births in Uzbekistan is expected to continue to increase in the coming years and will look as follows:

in 2030 — 892.7 thousand;

in 2040 — 1,016.1 thousand;

in 2050 — 1,234.1 thousand.

Thus, by 2050, the number of births is expected to increase by 354.5 thousand people, or by 40.3 percent, compared to 2025. The highest growth rates by region are projected in the following places:

Tashkent region — 62 percent;

Tashkent city — 61 percent;

Andijan region — 48.6 percent;

Samarkand region — 43.3 percent;

Namangan region — 42.4 percent.

The crude birth rate is expected to decrease slightly in the medium term, after which a stable growth will begin. Across the republic, this indicator may reach 21.2 per mille in 2030, 20.8 per mille in 2040, and 21.9 per mille in 2050.

The regions where the birth rate is expected to be the highest in 2050 are:

Surkhandarya region — 24.7 per mille;

Kashkadarya region — 23.8 per mille;

Namangan region — 23.1 per mille;

Samarkand region — 23.1 per mille;

Andijan region — 22.9 per mille;

Tashkent city — 22.3 per mille.

"The projected increase in the number of births in the coming years will increase the demand for education, healthcare, preschool education, housing, social services, and labor market infrastructure. From this perspective, assessing demographic changes in advance will allow for the efficient allocation of state resources, comprehensive regional development, and strategic planning of investments in human capital," the research institute's report says.