"As long as it's a son": How the preference for male offspring affects family decisions in Uzbekistan?
In Uzbekistan, after families have a son, the probability of continuing to have children decreases significantly. According to a new study, this effect strengthens as the number of births increases, reaching up to 32–36 percent. The study's authors explain this by a "stopping rule" aimed at having at least one son in the family.
“As long as it's a boy”: How son preference affects family decisions in Uzbekistan
In Uzbekistan, if families have at least one son, the likelihood of having another child decreases significantly. This is the conclusion drawn from the recently published study “A Tale of Two Choices: Son Preference and Reproductive Outcomes in Uzbekistan.” The authors of the study are Hilola Dushamova, Rashid Javed, Gayrat Suyunov, and Munira Zakirova.
**If it's a boy, that's enough – the main conclusion of the study**
The study used data from the 2021–2022 Uzbekistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. In the second stage, data was collected from 4,448 households. The final sample of the study included 3,585 married women who had given birth to at least one live child.
The authors did not just show the simple assumption that “due to the high demand for a son in Uzbek families, families continue to have children until a boy is born,” but also the reverse: once a boy is born, the likelihood of stopping childbearing or delaying the next birth increases. For example: after the second child, women with at least one son are 16.7 percent less likely to have another child; after the third birth, this difference reaches 32.1 percent; and after the fourth birth, it goes up to 35.9 percent.
Another interesting aspect is that as the number of sons increases, the likelihood of continuing to have children decreases.
For example, compared to women whose first two children were girls, women with one son were 15.8 percent less likely to have another child, and those with two sons were 18.4 percent less likely.
After the fourth birth, depending on the number of sons, the likelihood of a subsequent birth was 28.6–38.5 percent lower.
But the most interesting part of the study is different: the researchers also compared families with children of both sexes to families with only girls or only boys. As a result, a woman whose first two children are girls is 15.6 percent more likely to have a third child than a woman with two children of mixed sexes.