Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

Americans will go to the polls on 3 November to determine how the remainder of Donald Trump's presidency unfolds.

Across the US, thousands of contests are being held at various levels of government. Yet the central focus for voters will be choosing members of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the two chambers that form Congress.

Both chambers are now controlled by Republicans, the president's party. The outcome could determine the success or failure of Trump's final two years in office.

Here is our visual guide to where the struggle for power will be decided - from approval ratings, to key races and issues, and the vast sums of money being spent.

One reason the opposition Democrats have a shot at reclaiming Congress is the president's low approval rating, which is a strong sign of how his party may perform.

He started his second term with an approval rating of just over 50%, according to polling resource website Silver Bulletin, but it soon dropped into the 40s.

It was around 42% when Trump chose to launch air strikes with Israel against Iran at the end of February this year, but it slipped below 40% soon after. It is now about 37%.

Eight years ago, Trump's approval rating at this stage of his first term was notably higher, at 43%. Joe Biden's at the same point in his term was 40%. In both instances, the incumbent president lost the House in the midterms but retained the Senate.

Trump's weak ratings help explain why Democrats are optimistic about winning both chambers of Congress and why they are targeting states Republicans have repeatedly won in recent years.

The Republican majority in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber, is as narrow as possible - they have 218 representatives, exactly the number required for control, plus one independent who votes with them.

House members serve two-year terms, so all 435 seats are on the ballot in November.

But most districts are not seen as competitive because the party that holds them has such strong backing that there is only one realistic winner.

The Cook Political Report, which studies campaigns and elections, says only 21 districts are "toss-ups" that could go either way.

Of those 21 toss-ups, 15 are currently held by Republicans and six by Democrats. If Democrats win five of those, in addition to 28 districts rated likely or leaning Democratic, they will take the House.

Historically, midterm elections bring a large number of House seat changes, usually as a rebuke to the White House. According to data, external going back to 1934, the president's party loses an average of 27 seats. In those 23 elections, the president's party has gained seats only three times.

Republicans have a somewhat firmer grip on the Senate. They control 53 of the 100 seats, while Democrats hold 45 and two independents who also vote with them.

Senators serve six-year terms, so about one-third of the chamber is elected every two years.

Thirty-five seats are contested in November, but Cook Political Report analysis indicates that only seven are toss-ups that could swing either way.

Of those toss-ups, six are currently held by Republicans and one by Democrats. Democrats would need to win four of those seats, plus the four rated likely or leaning Democratic, to reach 51 and seize control of the Senate.

But securing a majority is far from simple for Democrats.

They must defend their seat in Michigan, where polls suggest the race is closer than Democrats would prefer between Abdul El-Sayed, a left-wing political outsider, and his Republican opponent Mike Rogers, a Trump ally and former FBI agent.

They would also need to capture seats in states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Alaska, Iowa and Ohio.

Still, polls suggest they have a chance even in Texas, where former teacher James Talarico could become the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988 if he defeats Ken Paxton, the current state attorney general and close Trump ally.

What would Democratic control of Congress mean for Trump?

Trump promised to "end inflation and make America affordable again" during his 2024 election campaign, but the cost of living crisis is emerging as the main issue for voters.

The president proudly said gas was "now below $2.30 [£1.74] a gallon in most states" in his State of the Union address on 24 February. But the war with Iran started four days later, disrupting Middle Eastern energy supplies and pushing gas to $4 (£3.03) in the US.

The war grew steadily more unpopular as its effects spread around the world and eventually affected American consumers directly. One poll conducted in August found 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the situation.

Other issues voters say matter to them include healthcare and immigration.

Trump has recently promoted his immigration policies as a major success, pointing to much lower border-crossing numbers than in recent years.

Many Democratic candidates are concentrating on the high cost of US health insurance and the effect of Trump's legislation on access to the healthcare system.

Most signs suggest a successful midterm election for Democrats, but it would not be the first time Trump and his party have beaten the polls if they end up winning more seats than expected.

One of the few advantages they have is their large financial edge.

At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and its allied groups had more than $600m (£455m) in cash on hand, while Democrats had just under $400m (£303m).

In addition, Republicans also had more than $400m held by Trump's MAGA Inc group, the main fundraising and spending arm of the "Make America Great Again" political movement.

Republicans are using that financial edge to pay for advertising.

They spent $200m more than Democrats and outspent them in nearly all of the Senate races classified as toss-ups.

Trump will be hoping this late advertising push helps persuade Republicans to turn out and vote in November, increasing turnout and limiting the damage to him and his party.

Whatever happens, attention will soon shift to the next presidential election in 2028. Trump's unpopularity has dominated the midterms, but with him constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, the focus will move to what Democrats stand for, not just what they oppose.