**A Visit with Subtext**
In early August of this year, Samir Paul Kapoor, US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, traveled to India, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. According to the official US State Department announcement, the purpose of the visit was to meet with government and business representatives to advance the US administration's priorities, including expanding trade opportunities and business ties in the region.
However, the reality proved much more interesting. Even the first meetings indicated that the tour's agenda would likely extend beyond economic issues. Following the talks in Tashkent, Uzbek Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov reported that the parties discussed the further deepening of Uzbek-American relations, as well as preparations for upcoming events at various levels.
**The Economy Is Just the Surface**
At the same time, a telephone conversation took place between the presidents of the US and Uzbekistan, Donald Trump and Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Discussing the international agenda, the leaders emphasized the importance of continuing efforts to ensure global security and peacefully resolve international and regional conflicts.
It can be assumed that in other Central Asian capitals and in Delhi, the economic agenda will not be the only one on the agenda. It is worth recalling that Paul Kapoor already visited Delhi in March, where he discussed regional security issues and the shared priorities of the United States and India in the Indo-Pacific region.
However, the economic component of the trip cannot be considered merely a pretext for more serious discussions. In recent months, Kazakhstan and the United States have exchanged visits by representative trade and economic delegations. On June 15, the head of state received Ben Black, Executive Director of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation. That same month, Kazakh-American business events were held in Astana, including a roundtable on cooperation in the field of critical minerals.
**Who is Paul Kapoor and why is this important**
Let's return to the American diplomat. Samir Paul Kapoor comes from a highly respected American analytical community. He is the author of "Jihad as Grand Strategy: Islamist Radicalism, National Security, and the Pakistani State" (Oxford University Press) and "Dangerous Deterrence: Nuclear Proliferation and Conflict in South Asia" (Stanford University Press). He also contributed to studies on nuclear stability in South Asia and US and Indian approaches to nuclear security, published by Columbia University Press and Palgrave Macmillan.
Experts are drawn to one of Paul Kapoor's conclusions. In his book, "Jihad as Grand Strategy," he analyzes the logic that prompted the Pakistani leadership to use Islamist groups as a foreign policy tool. The scholar called Pakistan's strategy "optimal" given the country's need to respond to a myriad of "geostrategic challenges."
Given Kapoor's extensive experience as a diplomat and researcher, including in the field of international security, it can be assumed that one of the goals of his current tour is to probe the positions of countries in the region on new formats of cooperation. Perhaps this also involves a search for unexpected regional configurations. However, for now, this is only a hypothesis: the official agenda for the trip makes no mention of preparing a new US strategy.
**"Greater Central Asia": An Unfinished Project**
In general, this has been seen before in the history of American diplomacy. For example, in 2005, American researcher Frederick Starr proposed the concept of "Greater Central Asia," which envisioned closer integration of the region's states with Afghanistan. Certain elements of this approach later manifested themselves in the regional policy of the George W. Bush administration.
In October 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan in succession. Afterward, she traveled to Moscow.
Washington faced at least two objectives at the time. The first was maintaining the American military presence in the region. In July 2005, participants in the SCO summit adopted the Astana Declaration, which called for defining the timeframe for the use of military infrastructure and the presence of anti-terrorist coalition contingents in Central Asia. Soon, Uzbekistan demanded that the American military leave the Karshi-Khanabad airbase. Following this, the US was forced to seek new options for deploying its forces and negotiate access to the Manas Air Base in Kyrgyzstan.
A second, perhaps more ambitious, objective was to create a sustainable space for interaction between Central Asia and Afghanistan without the participation of Russia, China, and Iran. However, at that time, it was not possible to formalize this framework into a full-fledged regional mechanism.
**The Old Strategy Has Ended. What Will the US Propose?**
It is noteworthy that after the Republican administration returned to the White House, US President Donald Trump approved the "United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Strengthening Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity." Since this strategy has already expired, it is likely that the Americans have begun work on another strategic document for the South and Central Asian region.
Paul Kapoor's tour may be one element of this work, but in itself does not prove that preparations for a new strategic document have already begun.
To summarize, it can be concluded that the Assistant Secretary's main talks will by no means focus solely on economic issues, as previously announced by the US State Department.
However, it is quite expected that economic cooperation issues will also feature in brief media releases. This is especially true given that, on the eve of Kapoor's arrival in Astana, Bloomberg, citing an American official, reported an agreement under which Ukraine pledged to refrain from attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure and certain non-Russian tankers in the Black Sea. These vessels are not subject to Ukrainian sanctions, are not Russian-owned, and do not carry Russian cargo. It appears that one of the main irritants has been removed before the Astana talks. Meanwhile, the American side is throwing a "hot" economic topic at Kazakh journalists and analysts.
Without a doubt, we will never know the real outcome of the talks in Astana and other Central Asian capitals, as well as in Delhi. In other words, the public agenda for journalists has already been prepared: trade, investment, and the security of Kazakh oil exports. What will remain outside the official press releases is another matter.
Hypothetical leaks of the contents of conversations and agreements reached could appear in American or Indian media, which have their own "confidential" channels for obtaining real information. But we'll have to wait a bit. Much may become clearer over time.
**Astana has seen such diplomatic moves before**
In conclusion, I'd like to note that Kazakh-American relations have previously seen instances of two US Assistant Secretaries of State visiting Astana in the same month. In February 2007, Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs Daniel Sullivan and Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher visited Kazakhstan.
These visits took place several months after the meeting between Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev and George W. Bush at the White House on September 29, 2006. Upon returning from Washington, then-Kazakh Foreign Minister Kassym-Jomart Tokayev intended to strengthen the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' American focus.
However, he was unable to fully realize his plans: in January 2007, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev became Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking another step in his political career. The new leadership of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs realized the need to restructure its work on the American track only a year later, but that's a completely different story.
Rustem Kurmanguzhin