There is money and technology, but a shortage of specialists: the problem in the US space industry
The US could face a serious challenge in quickly restoring lost military space systems in the event of a potential prolonged military conflict with Russia or China. This could be caused not by a lack of missiles, satellites, or financial resources, but by the absence of a sufficient number of qualified engineers, technicians, and assemblers.
Money and technology are available, but there is a shortage of specialists: the problem in the US space industry
This is the conclusion reached by experts from the US analytical corporation RAND.
A new study analyzes how quickly the US could replace satellites and their supporting systems lost in the early stages of a potential long-term conflict.
The study's authors used a timeframe of 12 to 24 months as a benchmark for restoring lost space capabilities.
This is considered an extremely high speed for the US space industry. According to RAND's assessment, under normal conditions, the process of replacing an obsolete satellite can take nearly 10 years.
The researchers investigated whether the US defense space industry could sustain an emergency high rate of production during the years 2027–2032.
The conclusion is not positive.
According to experts, addressing the current shortage of personnel alone could take several years. Therefore, the probability of restoring lost space capabilities within 12–24 months is assessed as low.
The study was initiated by General Michael Guetlein. He currently leads the US Golden Dome program. At the time the study began, he served as the Vice Chief of Space Operations.
The authors analyzed federal statistical data on the US labor and education markets from October 2024 to March 2025. In May-July 2025, interviews were conducted with industry representatives and heads of educational institutions.
RAND divided the personnel required for the space industry into three main categories.
The first category consists of engineers involved in the design, development, and testing of space systems.
In the US, nearly 3 million people work in engineering positions that require a bachelor's degree or higher.
At first glance, this appears to be a very large talent pool. However, only about 3 percent of them work in fields that RAND includes among the sectors supporting the space industry.
These include satellite communications, semiconductor manufacturing, and the production of non-metallic mineral products such as optical glass. At the same time, aerospace manufacturing was not included in this calculation.