The sum starts September from strong levels

The Soum Starts September from a Strong Position

By September 3, 2026, the Uzbek soum is trading against the US dollar at approximately 11,780 soums per dollar.

Over the week, the national currency has barely changed: in our previous review a week ago, the dollar was also near 11,800 soums. The soum ended August close to its strongest levels in recent months.

Fundamentally, the soum's position is supported by the inflow of foreign currency into the country. Remittances in the first half of the year increased by 13% to $9.3 billion, with inflows becoming more diversified by country of origin. The Central Bank's high key rate of 14% also supports the attractiveness of savings in the national currency and limits domestic demand for foreign currency.

Another significant factor is the strong economy. In the first half of the year, Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8.5% year-on-year, fixed asset investment increased by 17.5%, and retail trade turnover rose by more than 20%. Such dynamics support income and capital inflows, but at the same time strengthen import demand. Therefore, rapid economic growth works both ways for the soum: it provides fundamental support, but increases the need of businesses and the population for foreign currency.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy. The regulator is keeping the rate at 14% and expects inflation to be around 6.5% by the end of 2026.

Among the risks, it highlights active domestic demand, budget expenditures, and the secondary effects of rising energy tariffs.

For the exchange rate, the combination of a high real rate and a gradual decline in inflation remains a positive factor.

In the coming week, we expect the dollar/soum pair to remain in the range of 11,700–11,950 soums per dollar.