Uzbek Soum Ends July Nearly Unchanged Against US Dollar

The Uzbek soum concluded July with minimal fluctuation against the US dollar, maintaining an almost identical exchange rate since the start of 2026, as reported by Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova.

Bodrova's data indicates that on July 30, the market exchange rate was 12,005 soums per dollar. The national currency experienced a 0.29% depreciation over the week, contrasting with a 0.56% appreciation the week prior. For the entire month of July, the soum saw a 0.69% decline against the US dollar.

Since the beginning of the year, the soum's value against the dollar has decreased by a mere 0.05%. The analyst noted that the national currency was at its weakest in mid-February and strongest during the initial days of July.

Anna Bodrova highlighted that the Central Bank's decision to keep the main rate at 14% demonstrates the regulator's prudent stance, given annual inflation at 6.4% and core inflation at 5.7%. She believes that elevated real interest rates continue to curb domestic demand and bolster the appeal of saving in the national currency.

Concurrently, the analyst identified persistent external and internal inflationary pressures, such as increasing global commodity prices, robust domestic demand, and inconsistent export revenues, partly due to interruptions in gold shipments. She assessed that these factors underscore the critical role of capital inflows in preserving foreign exchange market stability.

Bodrova stated that while monetary policy easing is a possibility, a reduction in the main rate is improbable before the close of the current year. The primary forecast anticipates the current rate level being maintained for an extended duration, with a potential cautious reduction contingent on a slowdown in core inflation and a rebound in gold exports.

For the upcoming week in August, the analyst projects the dollar exchange rate against the soum to range between 11,950 and 12,100 soums.