The Golden Mean is Better Than Extremes
The official visit of the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, to Germany continues. Bavaria became the next destination of the Kazakh leader's trip. On September 30, the Kazakh-Bavarian Forum dedicated to technology, energy, and investment was held in Munich. Issues of cooperation were also discussed at a meeting between the head of Kazakhstan and Hubert Aiwanger, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Affairs of this federal state. Astana hopes to attract German business to develop its manufacturing industries. The negotiations in Berlin demonstrated mutual interest: Germany needs Kazakh resources, including oil to replace Russian supplies.
In addition to negotiations with the leadership of the government and the Landtag of Bavaria, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev participated in the opening of the Kazakh-Bavarian Technology Forum. The program in Munich continues the conversation started the day before with Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The parties have different starting positions. Germany is looking for reliable suppliers of raw materials and new markets for its companies. Kazakhstan strives to earn more from processing its own resources and manufacturing finished products. Bringing these interests together is up to the entrepreneurs, for the sake of meeting whom the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan continues his trip through Germany.
The oil topic was most directly addressed by Merz. At a joint press conference with Tokayev, the Chancellor stated that Germany is interested in Kazakh oil to replace what it no longer imports from Russia. This is an important emphasis: it concerns Kazakhstan's place in the altered energy supply system of the FRG.
Tokayev, in turn, confirmed his readiness to continue being a supplier of energy resources. In an article for Handelsblatt timed to coincide with the visit, he reported that in 2025 Kazakhstan sent more than 10 million tons of oil to Germany. "We are ready to continue responsibly fulfilling this mission, taking into account the available transport capabilities," the President wrote. The latter caveat is significant: the expansion of exports depends on the availability of routes. According to Prime, after the transit conditions via "Druzhba" changed in May, part of the oil was redirected through Ust-Luga and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium system.
At the business forum, Steinmeier recalled that the energy partnership has already passed a practical test. "We do not forget that your country supplied oil to the refinery in Schwedt," Berliner Zeitung quotes Steinmeier. The President of the FRG thanked Kazakhstan for helping the population and economy of eastern Germany at a difficult moment. In this remark, Berlin's interest received a very specific address: behind the diplomatic formulas stand the plant, its workers, and fuel consumers.
However, Astana brought proposals to Germany that go far beyond oil trade. "We should move from individual successful projects to a systemic industrial partnership," Tokayev stated at the Berlin business forum. To achieve this, he proposed a joint investment and industrial initiative: selecting commercially viable projects, attracting technologies, and establishing production facilities capable of selling products on foreign markets. The President pinned special hopes on German medium-sized businesses, their engineering school, and narrow manufacturing specialization.
Following the negotiations, Tokayev announced the signing of more than 30 commercial documents worth approximately $2 billion. This is a notable package, but its value cannot yet be considered as investments already received. The test of the agreements will be the financing, construction, and launch of enterprises. For German companies, further decisions will depend on operating conditions and demand for future products. For Kazakhstan, another question is important: what portion of technologies and manufacturing competencies will remain inside the country?
Tokayev himself provided one example of how such a partnership could work. According to him, agreements have been reached on exporting Kazakh machine-building products to Germany, including railway wheels manufactured on German equipment. For Astana, this is an illustrative story: the acquired technologies help to enter the market of the country that supplied them. If such deliveries become sustainable, Kazakhstan will have an additional argument in conversations with future industrial investors.
However, examples already exist. As Tokayev emphasized, over 1,400 companies with German capital participation are registered in Kazakhstan. Over 20 years, the cumulative inflow of investments from Germany amounted to $8 billion.
The presidents secured the political foundation for further work in a joint declaration. They supported a roadmap for industrial, technological, and raw materials cooperation for 2026–2028. Joint production, extraction, and processing of critical materials were named as priorities. A special place is occupied by the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor. For industrial projects, the accessibility of transportation is just as important as the availability of raw materials: the finished product must be delivered to the buyer at a price that preserves the sense of the entire deal.
A separate political emphasis of the Berlin negotiations concerned the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Answering a German journalist, Tokayev again proposed freezing the hostilities in order to move to negotiations. He called an immediate end to the war unrealistic under current conditions, while simultaneously reaffirming commitment to the UN Charter and the territorial integrity of states. In the same response, the President spoke positively of Vladimir Putin, calling him the most acceptable political figure for Central Asia, Europe, and the world. Merz, as reported by ARD, stated that Moscow lacks readiness for serious negotiations and confirmed the continuation of assistance to Kyiv. The economic rapprochement between Berlin and Astana is thus accompanied by differences in assessing the prospects for a settlement.
Sanat Kushkumbayev, Chief Researcher at the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KISS) under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, believes that Kazakhstan attracts Germany with its resources, geographical location, and opportunities to enter Central Asian markets. According to him, Kazakhstan is interested in cooperation in the field of energy transition, raw materials processing, and high-tech production. The country can also become a manufacturing, logistics, and service platform for German companies in the region. Additional prospects are opened by the modernization of Kazakhstan's energy, industry, and digital infrastructure, as well as joint projects in the field of artificial intelligence, fintech, and energy efficiency.
"The Kazakhstan-Germany investment and financial platform proposed by the President can bridge the gap between political agreements and actual project financing. It is capable of combining German and European capital with Kazakh co-financing, state guarantees, and risk-sharing mechanisms. Project support should be provided by the Baiterek holding. This approach will allow the creation of a permanent investment channel for industry, energy, and urban infrastructure. Its effectiveness will depend on the quality of projects, transparency of conditions, and investor confidence," the expert emphasized.