The global birth rate has fallen below the replacement level for the first time.
For the first time in history, the global fertility rate has fallen below the level needed to simply replace the population. This is the conclusion reached by the authors of the study "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World." According to the study, a long-term downward trend in fertility is observed in 219 of the 236 countries studied. Experts note that such a large-scale decline in fertility has not been previously recorded, even during periods of major […]
For the first time in history, the global fertility rate has fallen below the level needed to simply replace generations. This finding is presented in a study titled "Terra Incognita: The Economics of a Shrinking World."
According to the study, of the 236 countries analyzed, 219 are experiencing a sustained, long-term decline in fertility. Experts emphasize that such a dramatic decline in fertility has never been recorded, even during periods of major military conflicts and global epidemics.
This trend is increasingly affecting low- and middle-income countries. For example, the fertility rate in Thailand is 0.87 children per woman, in Colombia it is 1.01, in Iran it is 1.35, and in Brazil it is 1.52.
To maintain simple population replacement, the total fertility rate must be in the range of approximately 2.1–2.2 children per woman.
The study's authors warn that declining fertility could lead to long-term economic and demographic consequences, such as a reduction in the working-age population and increased strain on social security systems.