**Rogun of Hope**
President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon stated that the launch of the third operating unit of the Rogun HPP should allow the country to fully supply its population and economy with electricity. At the same time, construction of the entire station will continue beyond 2027. The Tajik leader said this during a speech on the occasion of the 35th anniversary of Tajikistan's state independence.
Tajikistan expects to completely eliminate the domestic electricity deficit in 2027 and move closer to its declared goal of energy independence. Emomali Rahmon linked the achievement of this goal primarily to the continued construction of the Rogun HPP and the commissioning of the next hydropower unit.
**New Unit Expected to Start Operating in September**
Rahmon expressed confidence that if the current pace of construction is maintained, the next unit of the Rogun HPP will begin operating in 2027. The authorities had previously specified a more precise timeframe — September 2027. This was outlined back in the presidential address in December 2025 and confirmed during a visit to the construction site in August of this year.
Currently, two temporary power units are already operating at the station — No. 5 and No. 6, launched in 2018 and 2019. Therefore, unit No. 4 will be the third to be commissioned. However, the launch of the third operating turbine does not mean the completion of the entire Rogun HPP project.
According to the World Bank's current assessment, once fully commissioned, the station will have an installed capacity of 3,780 MW and will be able to generate about 14,400 GWh, or 14.4 billion kWh of electricity annually.
The World Bank tentatively estimates the full completion of the main works to be around 2033.
Thus, Rahmon's statement on energy independence in 2027 means that the authorities expect to obtain enough additional generation at an intermediate stage to cover domestic demand — along with operating HPPs, new solar stations, and the modernization of the energy system.
International creditors generally confirm that Rogun is capable of fundamentally changing the country's energy balance. According to the World Bank's assessment, upon completion, the project should provide more reliable and affordable electricity to about 10 million residents of Tajikistan and eliminate the chronic winter deficit. At the same time, part of the future generation is planned to be exported to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
In June, the World Bank approved the second phase of financing for Rogun — a $300 million grant from the International Development Association. Taking into account the first phase, the World Bank's total financing for the project reached $650 million.
The pace of construction increased significantly in 2026. During his August trip to the site, Rahmon was briefed that more than 20,000 construction workers and engineering and technical specialists are working at the Rogun HPP, and the number of machines and mechanisms involved has reached about 4,000 units.
The state budget for 2026 provides 11.4 billion somoni for the construction of the station. During the first seven months of the year, about 8.4 billion somoni had already been directed to construction and installation works from all sources of funding.
In total, since 2008, the state has directed about 60.3 billion somoni to the construction and restoration works of the Rogun HPP.
**The Dam Continues to Rise**
The most important condition for increasing the station's capacity is not only the installation of new turbines, but also the consistent raising of the dam and the reservoir level. In August, the president instructed that during 2027, the dam level should be brought to 1,185 meters above sea level, and the water level in the reservoir should be maintained at no less than 1,165 meters. It is the increase in water head that allows the units to gradually reach higher capacity.
Once fully constructed, the height of the rock-fill dam should be about 335 meters, making it one of the highest dams of this type in the world.
**Over 2.3 GW of Capacity Added During the Years of Independence**
Rahmon also summarized the development of the country's entire energy sector. According to him, during the years of independence, 36 state investment projects worth 30 billion somoni have been implemented in the sector. Currently, another 20 projects worth approximately 23 billion somoni are ongoing.
During this period, the authorities reported the commissioning of more than 2,300 MW of new energy capacity, bringing the total capacity of Tajikistan's energy system to about 6,700 MW.
Among the largest projects mentioned were:
- Sangtuda HPP-1;
- Sangtuda HPP-2;
- Dushanbe CHPP-2;
- the first units of the Rogun HPP;
- small hydroelectric power plants;
- solar generation.
According to the data provided by the president, Sangtuda-1 and Sangtuda-2 alone cost 8.5 billion and 3.2 billion somoni, respectively.
In parallel, the reconstruction of operating hydroelectric power plants is being carried out. The Qairokkum HPP has already undergone a large-scale modernization, and work continues at the Nurek and Sarband stations.
Another important change was the construction of the "South – North" high-voltage line and new substations. This made it possible to unite the previously separated parts of Tajikistan into a single national energy system.
**Rogun Alone Will Not Be Enough Without Grid Modernization**
At the same time, additional generating capacity is only one part of the solution to the energy deficit problem.
In December 2025, Rahmon himself pointed out that electricity losses in the power system exceed 3 billion kWh per year. Simultaneously, domestic demand is growing: according to government estimates, by 2030, the demand for electricity will be 31% higher than in 2025.
Therefore, in parallel, Tajikistan is introducing smart metering systems, modernizing grids, and building solar power plants. It is the combination of new generation and reduced losses that should determine whether the seasonal deficit can indeed be eliminated by the declared deadline.
In addition to hydroelectric power plants, the authorities are counting on the rapid development of solar energy. In his festive speech, Rahmon announced that by November 2026, two solar stations with a total capacity of 500 MW are planned to be commissioned in the Asht and Jayhun districts.
Previously, the president also declared his intention to attract direct investment within a few years to commission up to 1,500 MW of solar capacity in the country.
This is particularly important for Tajikistan's hydropower system, where generation is highly dependent on seasonal river flows.