"Prices don't always rise." Central Bank provides examples of goods that became cheaper in Uzbekistan

"Prices do not always rise." Central Bank names goods that became cheaper in Uzbekistan

The rate of price increases for most goods and services included in Uzbekistan's consumer basket is slowing down. Nodirbek Achilov, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, announced this on November 4 at a press conference dedicated to the decision on the key rate and monetary policy for 2027–2029.

Answering a question from a journalist of the "Oreston Ovoz" newspaper, Achilov disagreed with the view that once prices rise in Uzbekistan, they almost never go down.

The journalist pointed to the ongoing rise in prices for fuel, electricity, and basic food items. He asked how the Central Bank expects to lower the key rate if price growth in these categories persists.

In response, the Deputy Head of the CB emphasized that the situation depends on the specific good or service. According to him, a slowdown in price growth is currently observed for most positions in the consumer basket.

"We have already said that the consumer basket includes 517 items. Among them, services account for 40%. Therefore, the claim that prices never go down requires a closer look. First of all, we can give the example of the exchange rate. Just two years ago, no one expected that the dollar rate could drop to 11,900 soums. There were periods when it rose to 12,700–12,800 soums," he said.

He also reported that in June 2025, an acceleration in price growth was observed for about 45% of consumer basket items, whereas now their share has decreased to 22–25%.

"For the remaining 70–75% of goods, price growth has slowed down. It cannot be said that all 517 positions of the consumer basket are becoming more expensive or cheaper at the same time. Different dynamics are observed for them," the Deputy Head of the CB explained.

As an example of a real price reduction, Achilov cited vegetable oil.

"After the pandemic, vegetable oil prices reached 30–35 thousand soums per liter. Now on the market there is oil for 18, 19, and 22 thousand soums. We studied this dynamic ourselves and observed a drop in prices," he shared.

Achilov attributed such changes, among other things, to the openness of the economy and the development of competition.

According to him, if the price of a certain good rises, then, given the opportunities for import, entrepreneurs can increase its supplies from other countries. Supply growth and competition, in turn, can lead to lower prices.

"The claim that prices never decrease does not quite correspond to the conditions of an open economy. If any product becomes more expensive, while conditions for imports are open and the impact of customs tariffs is minimal, it starts to be brought in from other countries. Under competitive conditions, this directly contributes to lower prices," the Deputy Chairman of the CB explained.

According to his assessment, similar processes are taking place in the clothing market and other non-food items, where competition between local manufacturers and importers is intensifying.

Achilov cited the taxi market as another example. According to him, the emergence of new aggregators in certain cases forced major players to revise tariffs downwards.

He noted that competition is capable of dampening even the secondary effects of rising fuel prices, as companies cannot always fully pass on additional costs to consumers.

At the same time, Achilov admitted that the situation in the market for basic food products remains more complex.

According to him, in certain food categories, price growth reaches 8–10%. In particular, increasing the supply of meat requires more time, as it is impossible to quickly expand livestock production.

The Deputy Head of the CB recalled the government's measures to support food supplies, including compensation for transport costs when importing meat products, as well as the provision of loans and incentives.

At the same time, he noted positive changes in poultry farming, which, according to his assessment, help stabilize chicken prices.

Achilov stressed that consumer price dynamics are influenced not only by monetary conditions, but also by the level of competition, market development, and the ability of entrepreneurs to quickly scale up the supply of goods.

"Overall, the rate of price growth has slowed for approximately 70% of goods in the consumer basket. This means that positive trends are observed in the structure of inflation... Our main task is to prevent the spread of secondary effects [of price growth] and create lending conditions that will contribute to the balance of the economy," he noted.

, in September 2026, annual inflation stood at 6.4% compared to 6.2% in August and 8% in September last year.

Food inflation in September was 6.3%, non-food — 5.8%, and in the services sector — 7%. Core inflation remained at 5.5%.

At the press conference on November 4, Achilov explained that the September acceleration in inflation was primarily due to the seasonal rise in prices for fruits and vegetables, fuel price increases, and certain services.

On the same day, the Board of the Central Bank kept the key rate at 14% per annum. The regulator explained this decision by continuing high domestic demand and inflationary risks. According to the CB's baseline scenario, overall inflation should approach the target level of 5% in the second half of 2027, and stay near this mark in 2028–2029.

According to data from the National Committee on Statistics, over the month, prices fell most significantly for lemons and oranges (by 12.1% each), mandarins (11.9%), grapes (5.6%), and courgettes (3.7%). Theater services (2.9%), apples (2.4%), bananas (1.7%), sugar (1%), and cement (0.9%) also became cheaper.

At the same time, fresh tomatoes (14.2%), cucumbers (13.5%), and carrots (12.4%) saw the most noticeable price increases. The cost of state preschool educational services (6.8%), legal services (6.6%), tuition fees at higher educational institutions (6.3%), potatoes (5.5%), and eggs (5.3%) also grew. Propane for cars and AI-95 petrol increased in price by 4.2% each.