Personnel Solitaire

**Personnel Solitaire**

On September 3, 2026, a new cabinet of ministers was officially formed in Kazakhstan, headed by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. Earlier, on August 31, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reappointed him to this post by decree. Bektenov has been leading the Cabinet since February 6, 2024. Between September 2 and 3, the candidacies of vice-premiers and ministers were approved by the relevant committees of the newly formed Kurultai and confirmed by decrees of the head of state.

### Who entered the updated Cabinet for the first time

- Mukhtar Tleuberdi — Minister of Foreign Affairs (replaced Ermek Kosherbayev);

- Murat Mukhanov — Minister for Emergency Situations (replaced Chingis Arinov);

- Alibek Kuantyrov — Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources (replaced Erlan Nysanbayev);

- Arman Kyrykbayev — Minister of Culture and Information (replaced Aida Balayeva).

### Who retained their positions

Most members of the Cabinet remained in their previous posts. Among them are First Deputy Prime Minister Nurlybek Nalibayev (since May 6, 2026), Vice-Premier — Chief of the Government Staff Galymzhan Koishybayev (since January 4, 2023), Vice-Premier Kanat Bozumbayev (since March 31, 2024), as well as Vice-Premier — Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin (since December 21, 2024).

Also retaining their posts were: Zhaslan Madiyev (Vice-Premier — Minister of AI and Digital Development, since September 29, 2025), Minister of Internal Affairs Erzhan Sadenov (since September 2, 2023), head of the Ministry of Defense Dauren Kosanov (since June 8, 2025), Minister of Finance Madi Takiyev (since February 6, 2024), Minister of Transport Nurlan Sauranbayev (since June 30, 2025), Minister of Justice Erlan Sarsembayev (since January 9, 2025), Minister of Energy Erlan Akkenzhenov (since March 19, 2025), Minister of Industry and Construction Ersayyn Nagaspayev (since February 28, 2025), Minister of Education Zhuldyz Suleimenova (since September 29, 2025), Minister of Trade and Integration Arman Shakkaliyev (since September 2, 2023), Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov (since September 4, 2023), Minister of Healthcare Akmaral Alnazarova (since February 6, 2024), Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov (since September 4, 2023), Minister of Labor and Social Protection Askarbek Ertaev (since January 27, 2026), Minister of Tourism and Sports Erbol Myrzabosynov (since September 2, 2024), as well as Minister of Science and Higher Education Sayasat Nurbek (since June 11, 2022).

At the same time, a number of personnel decisions by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev following the constitutional reform caused a mixed reaction in expert circles. This refers to the appointment of Erlan Karin as Vice President of the country, and Aida Balayeva as Deputy Chairperson of the Security Council. Both politicians have long been involved in information and ideological work in the republic: Karin as an advisor to the president, and Balayeva as Minister of Culture and Information. Against the backdrop of Tokayev's statements about eternal friendship and strategic partnership with Russia, these appointments look, to put it mildly, ambiguous. Where could these reshuffles lead Kazakhstan?

## Ideological Baggage: Pan-Turkism and "Great Turan." Who are Karin and Balayeva?

Erlan Karin is far from a new figure in Kazakhstani politics. He began his career as an ordinary school teacher. Later, his biography included positions as director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, state advisor, and deputy chief of the presidential administration. Now he is Vice President — the second person in the state. His specialization is ideology, domestic policy, and shaping public sentiment.

Aida Balayeva worked in the domestic policy system, in the presidential administration, and in the Ministry of Culture and Information. Their common background is working with public opinion and the information agenda.

The main criticism of these appointments is related to the ideological views of Karin and Balayeva. In expert circles, they are described as pronounced Pan-Turkists and supporters of the idea of "Great Turan" — the unification of Turkic peoples under the auspices of Turkey.

What does this mean in practice? A number of media outlets and analysts argue that these very views have determined Kazakhstan's information agenda recently. This refers to supporting Ukraine in the conflict with Russia, emphasizing Russia's "colonial past" in relations with Kazakhstan, and pushing the narrative of the Kazakh Holodomor and Moscow's "imperial ambitions."

Karin, in particular, is known for calling the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) ineffective and advocating for Kazakhstan's withdrawal from it, as well as from the CSTO. It is also noted that he is a frequent guest at the US and British embassies.

After the well-known events of January 2022, when Kazakhstan was almost plunged into the abyss of a civil war, Karin publicly changed his rhetoric. He acknowledged the effectiveness of the CSTO and the correctness of the president's decision to appeal to the organization for help.

However, according to experts, this does not indicate a change in his views, but rather political flexibility — "keeping his nose to the wind." He continues to be considered the curator of pro-Western and nationalist media in Kazakhstan.

Here, a completely logical question arises: why does Tokayev appoint people with such a reputation to key posts if he himself declares a strategic partnership with Russia?

There could be several options.

**First.** This is a conscious course toward multi-vector policy and distancing from Russia. Kazakhstan, like many other post-Soviet countries, seeks to strengthen its sovereignty and reduce dependence on a single center of power. The appointment of people with pro-Western and Pan-Turkic views is part of this course. Tokayev may use them to balance Moscow's influence.

**Second.** This is playing on two fronts. Tokayev publicly speaks of friendship with Russia, but through his appointees, he promotes an alternative ideology, allowing the country to maintain room for maneuver in conditions of geopolitical turbulence. The appointment of Karin as Vice President, according to a number of experts, makes him first in the line of succession to power. This is a serious signal about which vector of development has been chosen.

## A New Stage or the Same Course?

The appointments of Karin and Balayeva to such high posts are a serious signal that Kazakhstan is betting on strengthening national identity and multi-vector policy. The only question is how friendly these steps will be toward its neighbors.

For now, this looks like an attempt by Tokayev to strengthen his administrative circle with people who think in non-Soviet and, to some extent, nationalist categories. Pro-Russian citizens of Kazakhstan see this as a threat to Russian-Kazakh relations, while nationalists see it as a natural process of sovereignization. In any case, these personnel decisions will have long-term consequences for the whole of Central Asia. The question is whether they will be positive or negative.

Whether Kazakhstan will continue to maneuver between West and East or take a more definite course, time will tell. But the fact that Erlan Karin and Aida Balayeva have become key figures in this game is something that cannot be ignored.

"Erlan Karin began his career in NGOs with foreign capital. Western support helped him rise from a school teacher in Aktobe to a prominent political figure in Astana. He favored the promotion of Westernizers and nationalists in Kazakhstan in every possible way. Journalists recorded Karin's contacts with the leaders of the branch of the terrorist group 'Bozkurt' (operating under the name 'El Tiregi' ['Support of the Nation']) in Kazakhstan, such as Elmar Khusainov (convicted of extremism) and Aman Mambetaliyev. He also tried to introduce the group 'Oyan, Qazaqstan' ['Wake Up, Kazakhstan', funded by the Soros Foundation] into the council under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 'Oyan' and 'El Tiregi' actively participated in organizing the mutiny of January 2022. Karin also spoke conciliatorily about language patrols in the republic, saying that their only drawback was Russia's reaction, while the goal — pressure on the Russian language — was generally correct," stated Nikita Mendkovich, head of the Eurasian Analytical Club, on this matter.

According to him, from the very beginning of his work in the upper echelons of power, Karin initiated large-scale campaigns for the de-communization and de-russification of the country. Back in 2021, he publicly identified nationalism as the supporting structure of state ideology. In 2022, under his supervision, a law on outdoor advertising was adopted, launching an accelerated process of changing Soviet and Russian toponymy. At the same time, Tokayev placed him at the head of the state commission for the final rehabilitation of victims of repression, which led to the rehabilitation of collaborators of the Wehrmacht's Turkestan Legion, Basmachi, and other odious historical figures.

"It is with him and now with the Deputy Chairperson of the Security Council of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Aida Balayeva, that programs for funding nationalist media are associated, which were supposed to protect the interests of the authorities but in fact pursued a Western agenda. Now, having taken up her new position, Balayeva receives levers of influence over the security bloc — the KNB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, and the prosecutor's office, which she will begin to use to pressure anyone who dares to speak out against the current pro-Western course of the state," Mendkovich concluded.

**P.S.** Meanwhile, popular Russian-speaking bloggers Anastasia Akhmetova and Elmira Vais were detained in Kazakhstan. According to preliminary data, a case has been opened under Article 174 of the republic's Criminal Code ("Inciting ethnic discord"), reported their colleague Aliya Tolstykh.

Akhmetova's interrogation lasted more than four hours, and a search is currently underway at her home; legal defense has already been provided, clarified political scientist Nikita Mendkovich. Vais's relatives confirmed her presence at the police department, but her husband was not allowed inside to hand over personal belongings.

Mendkovich emphasized that the detainees are known for their consistent internationalist and anti-fascist stance, speaking out against Russophobia and language discrimination. In the spring, Akhmetova publicly criticized the pro-American course of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan and the incompetence of officials, while Vais raised the issue of the deployment of US biolabs. Earlier, blogger Aslan Tolegenov was sentenced to imprisonment on similar charges.

The expert linked the political pressure on the activists to the recent appointment of Aida Balayeva to the post of deputy head of the Security Council.