Guaranteed balance

Guaranteed Balance: Tokayev Retains Prime Minister and Appoints Vice President

A week after Kazakhstan's snap parliamentary elections, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a number of personnel changes, retaining Olzhas Bektenov as Prime Minister and appointing Yerlan Karin, previously First Deputy Chief of Staff, to the new position of Vice President. The corresponding decrees were published on the official website of the presidential administration.

These personnel changes followed snap parliamentary elections held under the country's new constitution, which resulted in the newly formed pro-presidential party "Adilet" (Justice) winning a constitutional majority.

Before the nominations were approved, Tokayev submitted them to the deputies of the newly formed unicameral parliament (kurultai). In his speech, the head of state emphasized the special role of the vice president in the system of public administration, noting that this position is intended to help maintain a balance between the branches of government. According to Tokayev, Karin is well known in Kazakhstan for his extensive public service experience, broad erudition, and genuine patriotism. The president also added that Karin has actively participated in the implementation of large-scale reforms and "has a clear vision of the long-term state strategy and prospects for the country's socioeconomic development."

Prior to his appointment as vice president on June 30, Karin served as first deputy head of the presidential administration. Previously, since 2022, he served as a state adviser and concurrently as state secretary. During the mass unrest in major cities of Kazakhstan in January 2022, Karin led the regional headquarters for stabilization in the Mangystau region. His political career began in 2006, when he served as an adviser to the akim (governor) of the Mangystau region on political issues. Two years later, he transferred to the presidential administration, where he headed the domestic policy department.

Stanislav Pritchin, head of the Central Asia Sector at the IMEMO RAS, suggested that Karin has likely won the current stage of the intra-elite struggle and will become the second-in-command in the republic's power vertical. However, the expert noted that, given the high dynamics of internal processes, this victory is temporary: "So far, only the outlines of possible future events have been outlined. Early presidential elections may be held in 2027, in which Tokayev is expected to participate. In this scenario, the position and importance of the vice president somewhat loses its strategic significance compared to the original version of the reform."

Pritchin also noted the lack of clarity regarding the vice president's functions in the new version of the constitution. On the one hand, the constitution emphasizes the importance of the new position and its place in the power hierarchy; on the other, there is a lack of clarity regarding the vice president's duties. "This creates a wide field for interpretation." "Given Karin's political activity and passion, I assume he will have a fairly broad scope of work as vice president," the expert allowed.

Alexander Knyazev, a leading research fellow at the MGIMO Institute of International Studies, believes that Karin is a proven performer for Tokayev, capable of strengthening the president's ability to implement his reform agenda. However, according to the expert, considering Karin as the Kazakh leader's successor is currently unproductive, as Tokayev's re-entry into the 2029 presidential elections cannot be ruled out. However, the expert did not rule out the possibility of the president using personnel appointments as a "diversionary maneuver."

Regarding Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, Tokayev noted the productive work of the previous government and called on members of parliament to join forces to strengthen Kazakhstan's independence and sovereignty, as well as the further development of the state. After Tokayev's speech, 141 out of 145 deputies voted in favor of Karin's appointment, with four abstentions. Bektenov received 137 votes in favor, with seven abstentions, according to the Kazakh online portal "Vlast."

Bektenov first became head of the cabinet in February 2024. Prior to that, from April 2023, he headed Tokayev's administration. Bektenov began his career in 2002 in the Almaty Justice Department. Over the years, he served as the chief expert in the legal department of the Prime Minister's Office and in the presidential administration. From 2012, he headed a department in the central office of the Agency for Combating Economic and Corruption Crimes for two years, and then headed the office of the Akim (Mayor) of Astana.

Since 2016, Bektenov has spent a significant portion of his career focused on anti-corruption efforts: first, he headed the capital's department of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau. From 2018, he worked at various levels in the Agency for Civil Service Affairs and Anti-Corruption, and four years later, he became its head.

Pritchin noted that, overall, Tokayev is satisfied with the current cabinet's performance, despite the youth and relative inexperience of its leader. The expert predicted that, together with Bektenov, the Kazakh leader will retain the core of the government. Knyazev added that Tokayev has a "very short bench" in the government. "Bektenov's tenure as prime minister cannot be called particularly successful, but he also showed no outright failures. Therefore, his reappointment can be explained by a personnel shortage in the government," the expert believes.

Thus, political reform in Kazakhstan has culminated not in a weakening of the presidential vertical, but in its institutional fine-tuning. The Kurultai provides legislative support, the government implements decisions, the Security Council oversees the security forces, and the Vice President coordinates and provides crisis insurance. The main intrigue now shifts from the structure of the system to the timing of its next legitimization. And here, Tokayev's early reelection appears more likely than an immediate search for a successor.