Democrats are facing an identity crisis, and there is no simple remedy

James Stevens describes himself as a democratic socialist. The 24-year-old film student is the kind of Democrat who remembers watching the provocative left-wing online commentator Hasan Piker six years ago, "before he became relevant in politics". Last year, James travelled from his home in Georgia to New York City to canvass for Zohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign.

His mother, Tamara, 56, is also a committed Democrat, though of a different sort. She was raised Republican before changing parties after seeing Barack Obama on Oprah. Today, she is a loyal party supporter, backing reproductive rights, going to campaign rallies and giving money to local candidates.

Mother and son both want Democrats to take control of Congress in next Tuesday's midterm elections, but they do not fully agree on what they want the Democratic Party to become.

"I'm very sick of how compromising Democrats are to Republican policies that don't benefit a large group of people," James told me, while his mother listened. "There needs to be a bold vision for the Democrats," he says, arguing that the party should embrace policies associated with the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), a left-wing splinter group. In his view, that means anti-Zionism, removing corporate money from politics, and government-run free healthcare.

The accepted view in Washington is that Democrats are in a strong position to win the House, and perhaps even the Senate, after next week's vote.

The underlying conditions favour Democrats - Republican US President Donald Trump's approval rating is at a record low for a president going into a midterm, on par with George W Bush in his final term in 2006; the Iran war is still unresolved and remains unpopular with American voters; and that has pushed gas prices higher, frustrating an electorate already anxious about the cost of living. Traditionally, midterms serve as a referendum on the sitting president. In 18 of the last 20 US midterm elections, the party in power has lost House seats.

Even so, the Democratic Party is also unpopular across the country. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Americans view Democrats as only slightly better than Republicans. Recent polls still show the Democratic Party with a net unfavourability rating among Americans. Political analysts say that if Republicans manage to defy expectations and survive these midterms, one major reason is that the Democratic Party, or the Democratic brand, is also disliked by a majority of American voters.

Beyond the headlines about which party or which candidates win this Tuesday, this election season also tells a story about Democratic identity. It is a struggle between institutionalists and reformers, between those who want gradual change and those who demand sweeping transformation. The question is who will prevail in the long run.

I have covered every national US election over the past 12 years, and this one is unusual. When I was interviewing voters before the 2018 midterms during Donald Trump's first term, I was struck by how united many Democratic voters were in opposing the president. This time, I have noticed that beneath the appearance of unity, a fight is building.

There are ongoing questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, and those divisions surfaced during the primaries in this midterm cycle. "The identity of the party is pretty cloudy," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a centre-right think tank. "It's all centred on reaction to the Trump administration and taking advantage of what is a thermostatic reaction against the administration... Beyond that, there's all these different factions in the party."

One reason for this Democratic infighting is that the party never got the chance to have this argument during the 2024 presidential race, after Joe Biden's sudden exit months before the election and Kamala Harris's nomination.

Analysts agree that even if Democrats score major victories on election night, that will not settle the deeper unresolved questions as they try to keep their big tent together to win seats in Congress or look ahead to the 2028 presidency.

In simple terms, the split is between the party's centrist, more moderate wing and its left flank. But operatives and analysts say it is also a divide between institutionalists and those who want to completely overturn the existing institution. Both sides believe they understand better what voters truly want.

Usamah Andrabi, of the Justice Democrats, a prominent left-wing group, blames the Democratic establishment for bringing about a Republican Congress and president. "And so I think the people who led us into this mess are simply not gonna be the ones who lead us out of it," he told me.

"The affordability crisis… is a massive one, and it's not going to be resolved by tinkering at the margins," he added. Instead, he says, it will be addressed through policies such as universal healthcare and childcare, and by shifting money through cuts to the Pentagon budget to stop "endless wars". His organisation was founded in 2017 to recruit and support the congressional members who became known as "the Squad", the furthest-left faction in the House, including figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has remained consistently popular with progressives

Healthcare is likely to be one of the main battlegrounds in this fight, says Carrie Dann, managing editor of the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that tracks race competitiveness.

"There is a lot of appetite for, at the very least, more transparency, more understanding of why healthcare costs are so high," said Dann. " Take a bad step, break your leg, and a huge swathe of Americans would see their worlds turned upside down by that because of the healthcare system as it is."

Several Democratic candidates this election cycle have proposed ways to reduce "out-of-pocket" costs for people who already have health insurance - extra charges on top of regular insurance payments are a common part of the American healthcare system. But another wing of the party is tired of incremental reform and wants a national healthcare system free at the point of use - Medicare for All.

Recent polling indicates that a majority of Democrats support this kind of healthcare system, while a majority of Republicans oppose it.

But some Democrats argue the issue is more complicated.

"People want to have universal healthcare, and they also want to be able to keep their health insurance," says Neera Tanden, Joe Biden's former domestic policy adviser, now CEO of the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.

Mainstream establishment Democrats accept that many people view healthcare as a right, but they say others strongly oppose a fully government-run programme, fearing lower standards of care, and want the option of keeping private health insurance.

Healthcare costs have risen across the board - health insurance and out-of-pocket medical expenses, hospital bills and prescription drug prices have all climbed in recent years, faster than inflation. As medical costs have increased, polls suggest universal healthcare is not as far-fetched as it once seemed, and this campaign cycle has shown it is much less taboo for politicians to openly support it.

Back in Georgia, it is an issue on which Tamara and James agree - they want universal healthcare.

But their deepest disagreement is over Israel. Tamara describes herself as a Zionist. "My kids get mad at me for saying that," she said.

And they are far from the only Democrats having this argument.

Abdul El-Sayed's race is being viewed as a bellwether

Dann, of the Cook Political Report, says one of the biggest lessons from this election cycle is that Democratic voters were not only looking for candidates willing to fight Trump, but also candidates willing to challenge the establishment. Dann points to the crucial swing state of Michigan, where in the primary, Abdul El-Sayed - a fierce critic of Israel and its actions in Gaza - came out ahead despite objections from the Democratic establishment.

"I think one reason for that was that he was not only talking about taking on Donald Trump, but taking on the Democratic establishment… the establishment in Washington writ large," she said. And part of that anti-establishment mood concerns US support for Israel.

Some who left the party in 2024 because they believed Biden was too supportive of Israel's actions in Gaza are now coming back, energised by El-Sayed's hard line.

"My red line has been Gaza," said Samraa Luqman, an Arab-American activist in Michigan who voted for Trump in the last presidential election, feeling betrayed by Democrats that year.

"2023 and 2024 have really taught this community a lesson that we are no longer going to be wishy-washy about the issue. It's Gaza or bust," she told me. "If you're not good on Gaza, on Israel, on Palestine, then we don't need you. We don't need you in office, and we don't need to vote for you, no matter what your party affiliation is."

Support for Israel has become a core issue inside the party

But while El-Sayed has energised voters, he has also pushed others away, especially some who see support for Israel as tied to Jewish safety in the US and believe antisemitism in their party has increased after the deadly Hamas attacks of October 7.

Zach Nessel is one of those Democrats. And he is increasingly concerned about becoming politically homeless.

"We have people who don't think Zionists should have a place in our party, that they should be removed from the party," Nessel told me. "And as a proud Zionist, I don't want to be removed from the Democratic coalition just over this one issue in the Middle East."

Support for Israel became a litmus test in some Democratic primaries this season, prompting growing resistance to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the long-powerful lobbying group.

But Dann says the litmus test is not only Israel, it is also El-Sayed's race itself.

"Abdul El-Sayed's theory of the case is that he can run as an unabashed progressive in a purple state [a state that swings between the 'red' Republican party and 'blue' Democrats] and win because progressive ideas are not only popular if they're communicated correctly, but also activate voters who are not necessarily a normal part of the political process, particularly young people," she said.

If he wins, left-wing candidates will see that as a model, she adds. If he loses, Democrats on the party's more centrist wing will see it as proof that left-wing ideas are out of step with mainstream voters.

But others, such as Jim Kessler of Third Way, a centrist think tank, believe Michigan should not be the main focus. He noted that if Democrats win the Senate, it will be because of more centrist candidates: Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Mary Peltola in Alaska, James Talarico in Texas, Josh Turek in Iowa, Adam Hamilton in Kansas. They, he said, are the ones improving Democrats' chances this cycle. " So the bigger the Democratic victory, the more it seems like the centrist Democrats came through, not the DSA candidates," he said.

DSA-endorsed candidates made gains in the primaries this election cycle, but their ideas remain controversial to many.

" I don't think… the vast majority of working-class people in America are kind of mini socialists," Tanden told me, pointing to reporting suggesting that most DSA supporters are college-educated voters.

" Working-class people are pretty moderate on issues like crime and immigration," she added.

Still, if Democrats win the majority, their congressional leaders will have to manage a party in which the loudest and most left-wing voices are likely to become more prominent.

" The Democrats' biggest challenge is to figure out how to actually deliver on running the economy better and making things more affordable, because they've said over and over again and very loudly that's what they're going to do," said Teixeira.

Most likely, people will begin seriously thinking about the next presidential candidate the day after the midterms.

So who really has the momentum: the left flank or the centre?

"I think after the election we'll see a lot of fighting between the factions to claim credit," Teixeira said. " And that will of course feed into the jostling for the presidential nomination for 2028."

Back in Georgia, Tamara and James may disagree on some issues, but they both want Democrats to win decisively on Tuesday.

"I'm a very pragmatic person when it comes to progressive politics," James said. He wants to make clear that he does not agree with everything DSA members believe.

So much of this midterm cycle has also come down to candidate quality - not just the message but the messenger. So I asked both mother and son who their "ideal" Democrat is.

Tamara immediately named Jon Ossoff, the Democratic senator seeking re-election in Georgia.

Jon Ossoff is being watched closely in Georgia

That is one point of agreement. They both really like their Georgia senator.

Ossoff is widely seen as a rising star in his party. The seat he is defending is described by the Cook Political Report as "likely Democratic" - an impressive result, analysts say, in a swing state that voted for Trump in 2024.

"He knows how to speak to moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats, and members of the DSA," Tamara said. "He's not afraid to pull any punches… I appreciate how much he talks about corruption."

On Wednesday night, she joined thousands of people just outside Atlanta for a rally to support the senator as former President Barack Obama campaigned for Democrats.

And when Ossoff took the microphone, he spoke at length about what he sees as "corruption" in the Trump administration and in American politics, healthcare and corporate money.

I heard that concern from voters in Georgia this past week, not only at the campaign rally, but also at early voting sites in both Republican and Democratic counties.

"We have a corruption crisis," said Richard Schosky as he left the voting booth in north Atlanta after casting his early ballot. It is an issue that appears to be resonating strongly with voters, although the White House has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing.

In fact, Dann of the Cook Political Report says "corruption has become one of the central issues of this election".

Still, she added, "Democrats would be foolish to believe that a very good night for them in November is a mandate for the Democratic Party," said Dann.

"They are as almost as unpopular as Republicans and the president."