As Merz scrambles for support, Germany's identity crisis is laid bare
Voters are turning away from the centre in Germany as fears grow about the economy and migration.
As Merz scrambles for support, Germany's identity crisis is laid bare
A run of major local elections has unsettled Germany and its government.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz may now be living on borrowed time. His coalition is in crisis.
Yet this collapse of normal politics in Germany has been building for years.
It is a country grappling with new, uncomfortable and unresolved realities.
Take some familiar ideas about Germany, and think again.
A nation defined by dull, consensus-based politics? Not anymore.
A confident economic powerhouse leading the way in car manufacturing? That belongs to the past.
A country synonymous with remarkable efficiency? The trains do not even run on time.
Many Germans I have spoken to say their country has drifted away from the things that once gave it identity.
What comes next remains unanswered.
That uncertainty is now personified by a battered chancellor, weakened by damaging regional election results.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has made strong gains in recent local elections.
Over the past two weeks, Friedrich Merz's party was beaten into second place in Berlin, badly beaten in the polls in Saxony-Anhalt and pushed out of parliament entirely in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
One thing helping Merz is that no one in his own centre-right CDU is yet prepared to challenge the chancellor openly, despite persistent talk of a Kanzlertausch (chancellor swap).
Even so, he is on shaky ground, with record-low approval ratings among voters who often call him arrogant and out of touch.
In government circles, that is sometimes described more politely as a "communication" problem.
Merz's supporters say the answer is to push ahead with much-needed reforms together with the centre-left SPD coalition partner, and to find a better way of speaking to the public.
Replacing the chancellor is not the solution, argues Jürgen Hardt, foreign policy spokesman in parliament for Merz's CDU and its sister party, the CSU, because anyone else would face the "same challenges".
Hardt noted that the CDU/CSU performed much better in other regional elections earlier this year, when we spoke minutes after Merz addressed party lawmakers at a closed-door meeting in the Bundestag.
"I think Friedrich Merz knows about his deficits," says Hardt. "He will work on him and we will work on us as (a) party. And hopefully we will convince the people in the next months that we are on the right way."
Merz came to power in 2025, promising to take a hard line on immigration and revive Germany's struggling economy.
He seemed to bring a sense of energy that could counter the dull, unhappy rhythm of Olaf Scholz's quarrelsome three-party coalition.
Olaf Scholz and his three-way coalition struggled in power, and he was ousted in 2025
Merz's allies would say he has had some successes.
This week, leading economic institutes lifted Germany's growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to above 1%, while illegal entries into Germany – and Europe – are down year on year.
But that will not erase public concern on either front.
Households and businesses are still dealing with high energy costs, while worries remain that China is eating into German industry, including its iconic car sector.
It is a harsh reversal of Germany's old formula for success: cheap Russian gas powering a booming export-led economy.
And on immigration, the emphasis is now less on newcomers and more on concerns about public safety, welfare spending and integration.
Although there are local exceptions, voters seem to be losing confidence in Germany's two main governing parties, the CDU and SPD.
That has opened the door to the rising force in German politics, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD): a party that alarms security officials with its Russia-friendly stance and includes regional branches classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence.
The AfD says these are smears and distortions, after claiming its third-ever victory in a state election last Sunday in the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-West Pomerania.
Its co-leader, Alice Weidel, told me this week that Friedrich Merz's days were numbered.
The AfD is a polarising force, and its recent local election wins have triggered protests.
The party has weathered numerous scandals in recent years and now leads the national polls at around 28%. It has the confidence of a party setting the political agenda.
It has tapped into nostalgia for the past as well as anxiety in the present, while strengthening its bases in the former communist east.
An AfD poster I saw in Berlin read "Berlin braucht Ordnung" (Berlin needs order). It is still an untested promise that this party can restore a lost sense of stability.
But in Germany's capital, it was actually Die Linke (the Left) that came first in the polls last Sunday, dealing another blow to the country's traditional "big tent" parties.
That win has brought renewed scrutiny to Die Linke, which faces allegations of antisemitism. The party leadership says it remains committed to protecting Jewish life.
This round of regional elections has captured the country's fault lines: the weakening support for Germany's political centre, and a polarising debate over the AfD.
Rarely in post-war Germany has a set of local polls caused so much turmoil at home and drawn so much attention abroad.