More than 43 million ballots cast so far in midterms early voting surge
Hispanic voters have helped drive the early voting numbers, which appear to outpace overall turnout for previous elections in some battleground counties.
More than 43 million ballots have been cast so far in the midterm early voting surge
With less than a week remaining before the US midterm elections, which will decide which party controls Congress for the next two years, more than 43 million Americans have already voted.
Figures from the University of Florida Election Lab show that four to five million early votes have been cast each day, a far higher pace than in most past elections.
Texas has recorded the biggest above-average turnout so far, according to Prof Mike McDonald, who oversees the Election Lab database. Hispanic communities are also turning out at a much higher rate than usual.
Overall turnout seems set to exceed 2020, or even 2018, when turnout in a midterm election broke the 1914 record.
Texas has already topped its 2022 total by about 1.75 million voters, McDonald says. More than 5.8 million ballots have already been cast in the Lone Star state, which has become a crucial battleground that could determine which party controls the Senate for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.
Data from states that require voters to register a party affiliation shows more votes being cast by Democrats, while Republican early voting totals are broadly in line with 2022.
Early voting is also higher among voters who chose not to register with a party, McDonald says, although the data does not reveal which candidates they supported.
A further 24.7% were assigned to voters with no party affiliation. However, that figure applies only to the roughly half of states that require voters to declare an affiliation.
Three states require voters to state their race when registering - North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Data from those states shows more votes from Hispanic and black communities, while white turnout is roughly matching 2022 early voting levels.
"That makes sense because communities of colour are more frequently part of the Democratic coalition, and whites are more frequently part of the Republican coalition," McDonald says.
Texas does not require voters to give party affiliation or race. But the data still shows a rise in voting in some counties along the border with Mexico, which are more than 90% Hispanic.
"When I look at those counties, what I see is some of them are going to beat their 2022 turnout in just the early vote alone," says McDonald.
Early voting has expanded sharply in recent years, driven by the Covid pandemic, when more states started offering early voting options, including both in-person and by mail.
In the 2020 election, when voters were choosing both the next president and their lawmakers, more than two-thirds of all ballots were cast early. Half of those early votes were also submitted by mail.
Voters are increasingly choosing to vote in person, even when voting early, McDonald says. They are also sending in their ballots earlier than in previous elections.
He adds that he thinks this may be because of concerns about postal voting, but says there is no data showing what may be driving it. Postal votes are more likely to be rejected because of mistakes, he notes, and says some voters may be worried about interference in the US Postal Service.
Early voting will decline as states begin ending early voting in the days before the election on Tuesday, 3 November.