Infrastructure alone is not enough. What is hindering the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor

Infrastructure alone is not enough. What is slowing down the development of the Trans-Caspian Corridor

The modernization of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor (TCTC), also known as the Middle Corridor, could more than triple transport volumes along the route, halve delivery times, and create an additional 2 million jobs by 2040.

The study covered nine countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Together, they are home to nearly 200 million people. Armenia is not yet among the countries through which the TCTC passes, but the authors expect direct transport links with the corridor to emerge in the 2030s.

According to WB experts' calculations, the development of the Middle Corridor could provide an additional GDP growth of 3.3% for the countries along the route. If infrastructure investments are accompanied by reforms that increase the efficiency of trade and transport operations, transport volumes could quadruple, and delivery times could be reduced by two-thirds by 2040.

"The Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor can become a powerful engine of economic growth, economic diversification, poverty reduction, and private investment inflow for the countries located along the route," said Antonella Bassani, World Bank Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. "This will require investments in physical infrastructure, as well as investments in services and new approaches to trade facilitation, transport operations, and cross-border cooperation to form a more seamless regional market."

The World Bank emphasized that many countries of the Middle Corridor are major producers of energy resources, critical minerals, raw materials, and food.

"For them, the corridor opens up an opportunity to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and, at the same time, use the growing transit demand to attract investment, develop business, and create jobs. The observed growth in regional trade, especially between developing countries, gives additional impetus to the development of this strategic transport artery," the World Bank noted.

According to the report's authors, investments in the TCTC infrastructure could provide Uzbekistan with a long-term additional GDP growth of 0.7%, or 749 million dollars, and employment growth of 0.4%.

One of the sectors that will directly receive a boost from infrastructure investments will be construction. According to the World Bank model, production volume in Uzbekistan's construction sector could increase by 15.7%.

The calculation also projects an increase in the country's exports by 0.97%, or 253 million dollars, and imports by 6.02%, or approximately 2.56 billion dollars. The authors attribute the increase in imports, among other things, to industrial needs and investment activity.

The report separately examines the impact of reducing logistics costs on the export of food and agricultural products. For Uzbekistan, a 5% reduction could provide additional supplies of 200 thousand tons, a 10% reduction — 370 thousand tons, and a 20% reduction — 720 thousand tons, the WB estimated.

To eliminate the main infrastructure constraints of the Middle Corridor by 2040, more than 25 billion dollars will be required. According to the report's authors, these funds should be directed to railway and port infrastructure, as well as to the development of maritime shipping. Many key projects are already being implemented or are in an advanced stage of preparation.

Another approximately 30.5 billion dollars represent investment opportunities. These include the development of the corridor's connections with national transport networks, logistics centers, and inland terminals, the renewal of rolling stock, transshipment equipment, and digital systems.

The largest set of such projects by value is in Uzbekistan — 11.5 billion dollars. It includes, in particular, the Tashkent–Andijan toll road with an estimated cost of 5.3 billion dollars, Tashkent–Samarkand — 1.4 billion dollars, and Samarkand–Bukhara — 1 billion dollars.

Another 1 billion dollars is allocated in the estimates for the replacement and modernization of railway rolling stock and expanding the capacity of the railway network. The list also includes dry ports and the modernization of railway border crossings.

These amounts reflect an assessment of investment opportunities, not World Bank financing commitments. The authors clarify that most of the associated projects under consideration are not yet being implemented and are at various stages of preparation.

The World Bank also recently presented a survey of entrepreneurs regarding the difficulties of working along the Trans-Caspian Corridor. It involved 60 companies from Uzbekistan, 68% of which regularly use the TCTC.

Among the main barriers, 45% of respondents named long idle times and waiting in ports, 41% — lack of port capacity and shortage of the ferry fleet, and 37% — queues and delays at borders.

Without expanding the fleet and developing vessels suitable for the conditions of the Caspian Sea, increasing railway capacity alone will not ensure improvement in the operation of the entire transport chain, the experts concluded.

At the same time, some port capacities are already almost fully utilized. In 2025, the utilization of container capacities in Aktau was 93%, and in Georgia's Poti — 98%. Meanwhile, the port of Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan is currently used at only 25–30% of its capacity and retains significant potential for increasing cargo traffic along the Trans-Caspian Corridor.

Current customs administration is also cited in the report as a factor that reduces the speed and competitiveness of the route. One of the key problems is the fragmentation of procedures. Cargo passes through many countries, and at each border, carriers perform customs and transit procedures anew.

At the same time, digitalization does not always relieve carriers of paper documents. Although a number of countries, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan, allow electronic submission of transit declarations, most countries of the corridor still require additional paper copies of transport waybills to be submitted to customs authorities. Existing digital platforms between most countries are not connected, which complicates the work of companies.

The World Bank notes that the TCTC has not yet achieved competitiveness in the transcontinental container shipping market between East Asia and Europe. As an example, the authors compared door-to-door delivery between China's Chongqing and Hungary's Budapest based on 2023 data.

As a result, on the selected route, delivery via the TCTC took longer, and direct transport costs were approximately twice as high as when using maritime shipping between China and Europe.

According to the authors, this gap can be narrowed not only by expanding infrastructure. Railway schedules, vessel turnaround times in ports, and maritime voyages are planned independently of each other, leading to missed connections and cargo accumulation.

The report highlights four priority areas for reform:

"Realizing the full potential of the corridor depends on practical measures that will make freight transport faster, more predictable, and easier to manage in a cross-border format. More closely integrated railways, ports, logistics centers, and digital systems, combined with stronger coordination between countries and operators, will help turn the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor into a more competitive route for business and a more efficient platform for regional development," emphasized Charles Cormier, WB Regional Director for Infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia.