India's largest share sale could end cheap mobile internet for millions

India’s biggest share sale could bring an end to cheap mobile internet for millions

Watch: Jio’s discounted data plans have been a foundation of India’s digital revolution

India’s largest telecom company, Jio Platforms, backed by Meta and Google, is due to begin trading on Wednesday.

Even after a difficult period for Indian markets, its landmark $3.2bn initial public offering (IPO) — the biggest in the country’s history — has attracted huge demand from leading global fund managers, domestic institutions and retail investors.

Bids exceeded the number of shares available within hours of subscriptions opening on 21 October.

Owned by Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani, Jio is one of India’s most important companies, with half a billion people using its low-cost mobile data. But its rapid ascent has also been surrounded by controversy.

The company entered India’s crowded telecom market in 2016, offering ultra-cheap tariffs that drew millions of Indians online.

Its arrival caused major upheaval in the telecom industry. A market that once had 17 operators was reduced to an oligopoly of just three, with critics accusing the cash-rich company of starting a price war that drove rivals out of business.

More recently, Elon Musk attacked Ambani, calling him the “real boss of India,” and implying that Jio was trying to block Starlink’s entry into India. Reliance rejected the claims, saying it welcomed competition from Musk.

Despite the scrutiny it has faced over the past decade, Jio’s discounted data plans have been a cornerstone of India’s digital revolution, helping create a vast digital economy and making online payments, food delivery and e-commerce more accessible in Asia’s third-largest economy.

Within three years of launch, customer data usage had increased fifty-fold and data prices had collapsed.

Jio’s low tariffs made internet access in India more democratic a decade ago

This aggressive discounting helped Jio quickly build a base of about 553 million mobile subscribers by 2026. It also strengthened its position in other areas, taking 50% of the wireless broadband market and more than 40% of fixed broadband.

Jio also handles 60% of India’s wireless data traffic and says it has the largest 5G subscriber base outside China, according to brokerage Emkay Global, which has called the company the “digital engine of India”.

But analysts say its stock market debut — which will see its promoters reduce their stake by about 3% — could signal a shift in Jio’s pricing approach, potentially ending years of ultra-low tariffs.

“The era of Jio using cheap tariffs as a market-share weapon is drawing to a close,” said Nitya Shah, co-founder of KamayaKya Wealth Management.

“A listed Jio must answer to minority shareholders… which structurally reduces its incentive to keep pricing suppressed.”

Jio’s future growth will no longer depend mainly on gaining subscribers through discounted plans. Instead, it will rely on “earning more per subscriber - through the migration to 5G, successive tariff revisions, and the extension of fixed wireless broadband into homes fibre has never reached”, brokerage Motilal Oswal said in a note.

The listing could also allow Jio’s rivals to raise prices, as concerns about being undercut by a cheaper competitor begin to fade.

“The biggest beneficiary of this shift could be Vodafone Idea,” Shah says. “It is a moment the sector’s weakest balance sheet gets its strongest tailwind”.

For Indian consumers, any further increases would follow an industry-wide tariff hike a few years ago. Analysts say another round of price rises could trigger fresh churn in the market as price-sensitive customers move to the cheapest available plans.

While consumers may face higher bills, Jio’s IPO gives investors a chance to bet on India’s seemingly endless demand for data — and on the expanding ecosystem of digital services the company offers across entertainment, cloud computing, gaming and financial services.

India has become the world’s second-largest user of mobile data, driven by lower tariffs and rising smartphone penetration.

Jio’s monthly data use per customer has risen from 28.7 GB in 2024 to 42.3 GB in 2026 — an increase of 52% in two years. Some estimates suggest usage could climb further to 65GB by the end of this decade as disposable incomes rise.

All of this should support Jio’s long-term growth in average revenue per user.

“Penetration of most digital services remains well below China and the US, which leaves significant headroom [for growth],” according to Emkay Global.

The listing is also expected to improve transparency and give investors a “clearer market valuation” for the company, according to Moody’s, since Jio is currently part of Reliance Industries, whose businesses range from oil refining to retail.

At $3.2bn, the Jio Platforms IPO is India’s biggest share sale

But beyond Jio’s central and expanding role in India’s economy, investor excitement also stems from the fact that this is the first share sale from the Reliance conglomerate in more than two decades.

The company, which began in 1958 as a small spice and polyester yarn trading business before expanding into textiles, petrochemicals, refining and later retail, telecom and digital services, is known for creating long-term wealth and holds legendary status among retail investors.

Dhirubhai Ambani, the founder of the Reliance empire, is said to have played a key role in popularising equity investing and moving it beyond the domain of traders and wealthy families in the 1980s and 90s.

In its early years, Reliance built a huge base of individual shareholders by turning its annual general meetings into major spectacles filled with big announcements, dividend payouts and celebrations of public share ownership. Over time, this helped create a fiercely loyal investor base, many of whom formed a deep emotional attachment to the company.

And although Reliance Industries’ stock has dropped nearly 20% over the past year, its longer-term performance still inspires confidence.

“The company has given average annualised returns of around 30% consistently for thirty years,” Kranthi Bathini of Mumbai-based WealthMills Securities told the BBC.

“That’s why there’s anticipation that the same magic can be replicated with the Jio IPO.”