Huge setback for Alberta's separatist movement after decisive defeat

A major blow has hit Alberta’s separatist movement after a clear defeat.

The referendum produced a decisive outcome in a vote that could have put pressure on national unity.

Preliminary figures indicate that more than two-thirds of Alberta voters delivered a firm signal that they want to stay in Canada.

It is possible that, once the final count is completed, the strong rejection by a comfortable majority of voters of a binding referendum on separation could stop Alberta’s separatist momentum in its tracks.

That would send the idea, which has been discussed quietly for decades, back to the political margins.

For Alberta separatist leaders, the result was expected based on polling, but it was still a disappointment after more than a year of campaigning and pressing for a vote on separation.

When the BBC asked separatist leader Mitch Sylvestre how he felt in one sentence after the result, he replied simply: "Not happy".

Prime Minister Mark Carney quickly welcomed the outcome, saying in a statement that "Albertans made a clear choice".

Still, movement leaders insist the fight is far from finished and say the issue could shape Alberta politics for years.

Jeffrey Rath, a Calgary lawyer and one of the main voices for Alberta separation, said he and others "plan to roll up our sleeves and work harder".

Keith Wilson, another separatist, told supporters in Calgary that although the vote is over, "the conversation about Alberta's future in Canada and our place in Canada and our role in Canada will continue".

Smith, who openly backed and campaigned for the unity vote, thanked voters for the result.

The Alberta premier has faced criticism for taking what some called a "dangerous" gamble: that the independence drive would likely be defeated while still giving her restless base what it wanted.

She reduced the petition threshold required to get the citizen-led campaign onto the ballot in the first place.

By making Monday’s result non-binding, she sidestepped a court ruling that blocked the pro-separation petition because it had failed to consult indigenous First Nations whose land would be affected if the province separated.

That gamble could put her leadership of the United Conservative Party, which she has led since 2022, to the test.

"She's lost the confidence of the (party) base," Rath said.

Throughout the campaign, Albertans who opposed an independence referendum told the BBC they were driven by a desire to keep the country together, especially as Canada faces tariff threats from the US, its longtime ally.

They also worried that an independent Alberta could be exposed to outside influence - or even annexation.

Thomas Lukaszuk, a prominent pro-unity campaigner, told a crowd of supporters on Monday night that the early results made him proud to be Albertan.

At a pro-unity results watch party in Edmonton, Lukaszuk appealed directly to separatists, saying that "some of the issues they have raised are legitimate", and that the province must do the hard work of healing the divisions exposed by the debate.

"I don't want to see us doing another referendum like this ever again," Lukaszuk said.

Earlier in the week, Premier Smith told CBC that she would not hold an independence referendum if Albertans vote against it as long as she is premier.

Some of the divisions will not be easy to mend.

Separatist feeling has its origins in "western alienation", a phrase used for decades by some in Canada’s western provinces to describe a sense of being ignored or overlooked by the federal government in central Canada.

Alberta independence supporters - and many on the unity side - believe Ottawa has long weakened the province’s oil and gas industry, most recently through environmental policies.

That anger later intensified as some Albertans became frustrated with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and vaccine mandates, seeing them as another example of government overreach.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has worked with Smith to address some of these concerns, signing an agreement that would see a new pipeline from Alberta built to Canada’s pacific coast.

He referred to that in his statement on Monday night, saying his plan is to unlock Canada’s "full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta at its core".

But there are signs of possible future tension between Carney and Smith, an accomplished politician and a survivor - so far - of Alberta’s rough-and-tumble politics.

She also put nine other questions to Albertans on Monday, most of them aimed at giving the province more autonomy from Ottawa, including on issues such as immigration.

The (very) preliminary results suggest many of them could pass.

Some who voted for a second binding separation referendum said they did not want full independence, but rather leverage over Ottawa. Smith has said these other nine questions give her exactly that.

Quebec, another province with similar sovereigntist feelings, may offer clues about where Alberta’s separation movement could go next.

Quebec held two separation referendums, in 1980 and 1995, and both were narrowly defeated.

Alberta independence supporters do not hide the fact that they draw inspiration from the majority French-speaking province.

They see Quebec as having successfully used the threat of separation to win much greater autonomy over provincial matters.

And despite support for Quebec sovereignty being at historic lows, a newly elected provincial government has promised to hold a third independence referendum by 2030.

Rath pointed to that as he reflected on his side’s defeat.

"A predominantly rural Independence Party in Quebec has just formed the government of Quebec with 28% of the vote," he said.

"It's not out of the realm of possibility", he added, that Alberta separatists could do the same in the future.