Global demand for air travel fell by 0.5% in September

Global air passenger demand fell by 0.5% in September

In September 2026, global demand for passenger air travel decreased by 0.5% compared to the same month last year. Excluding Middle Eastern markets, the figure, by contrast, grew by 0.3%.

Total airline capacity contracted by 0.2%, and the passenger load factor stood at 83.2%, down 0.3 percentage points. This was reported by the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

Air travel demand is measured in revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), and capacity in available seat-kilometers (ASK). On international routes, demand increased by 0.4%, and excluding the Middle East, by 1.7%. Capacity grew by 0.5%, with the load factor reaching 83.6%, which is 0.1 percentage points below the September 2025 level.

In domestic markets, demand declined by 2.2%, and capacity by 1.3%. The load factor dropped by 0.7 percentage points to 82.5%.

IATA Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Sustainability Marie Owens Thomsen attributed the overall decline to weakening markets in the Middle East and North America. At the same time, the situation improved compared to August: most international markets returned to growth.

According to her, similar dynamics were observed throughout the year and may persist against the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and volatile fuel prices. Global scheduled capacity in October and November is expected to remain above 2025 levels, although growth rates will be modest and vary noticeably by region.

Among regional markets, including domestic and international traffic, the most noticeable demand growth was shown by African airlines — up 5.0%, as well as those in Latin America and the Caribbean — up 4.3%. In the Asia-Pacific region, the indicator grew by 0.5%, and in Europe — by 0.3%. At the same time, demand fell by 8.0% in the Middle East and by 1.6% in North America.

At the end of 2025, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 34.4% of global passenger traffic, Europe — 26.7%, North America — 21.8%, the Middle East — 9.5%, Latin America — 5.4%, and Africa — 2.2%.

On international routes in September, performance improved across most key routes. Asia-Pacific airlines increased demand by 0.7% with a capacity growth of 0.4%. The load factor reached 83.1%. Traffic grew on four of the region's six largest international route pairs. On intra-Asian routes, passenger traffic contracted by 0.9%, but the rate of decline was lower than in August.

European carriers expanded demand by 1.8% and capacity by 1.2%. The load factor stood at 86.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points. On transatlantic routes, traffic declined by 0.6%, whereas in August the drop was 2.5%.

North American airlines saw no change in international demand. With a capacity reduction of 1.9%, the load factor grew by 1.6 percentage points to 84.9%. Passenger traffic decreased on three of the region's four largest international route pairs, but the rate of decline slowed compared to August.

In the Middle East, international demand contracted by 7.5%, and capacity by 3.3%. The load factor dropped by 3.6 percentage points to 78.3%. On routes between the Middle East and Asia, traffic dropped by 8.8% versus 7.9% in August. On the Middle East–North America route, the decline was 3.0%, which was slightly less than a month earlier.

Latin American airlines increased international demand by 8.2% and capacity by 7.6%. The load factor reached 83.9%. African carriers saw demand grow by 8.0%, capacity by 8.8%, and the load factor reached 74.8%.

In domestic markets, positive trends were demonstrated by Australia, Brazil, and China, where demand grew by 4.5%, 2.0%, and 3.1%, respectively. However, this growth was not enough to offset the decline in the US, where the indicator fell by 2.7%. IATA suggested that low consumer confidence could have influenced the performance of the US market.

In India, domestic demand contracted by 8.3% — the most significant drop since the beginning of 2026. In Japan, passenger traffic decreased by 0.8%, partly due to weather disruptions during part of the "Silver Week" period.

According to IATA, the six domestic markets for which detailed statistics are available account for about 29.6% of global passenger traffic and 79.4% of all domestic travel.

Overall, domestic routes accounted for 37.2% of global passenger traffic at the end of 2025.