Germany's far-right AfD bids for first taste of power in eastern vote

Germany’s far-right AfD seeks first taste of power in eastern vote

The AfD’s Ulrich Siegmund is topping the polls in Sunday’s Saxony-Anhalt state election

Germany is holding its breath this weekend ahead of a seismic vote in the country’s east.

The Alternative für Deutschland party is trying to win a majority in the regional parliament of Saxony-Anhalt.

A clear victory would be the first time a far-right party has held state-level power in Germany’s post-war period.

For the AfD’s critics, that is a deeply alarming prospect. The party, meanwhile, views it as a stepping stone toward its ambition of national power.

This election could alter German history.

The outcome could also create fresh problems for embattled conservative (CDU) Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as speculation continues over whether he can remain in office until the end of his term.

After being booed at recent public events, Merz is hardly regarded as an electoral advantage.

Perhaps the chancellor now regrets promising to stop the far right’s advance, since the opposite has occurred.

By contrast, the AfD’s charismatic top candidate in the state, Ulrich Siegmund, appears to have benefited from dominating the debate and media attention.

Described by Der Spiegel magazine as “Germany’s Most Dangerous Man”, he has dismissed reports that people with past ties to the neo-Nazi scene are among those holding influential positions around him.

The 35-year-old is often shown, including in his own many social media posts, among admiring crowds or cheerfully riding a retro East German scooter.

A persistent nostalgia for the past, combined with deep dissatisfaction with the present, has helped drive the party’s support in its eastern strongholds.

Voters complain about immigration, public safety, Germany’s weak economy, high energy prices and aid sent abroad to countries such as Ukraine.

Some people I have spoken to strongly believe the AfD offers a genuine chance for radical change and say Ulrich Siegmund has given them hope.

Other supporters are less sure, but say they have lost trust in mainstream parties that have dominated politics for decades.

An AfD lawmaker once told me that if they were given a chance to govern regionally, people would see that the “sky won’t fall in”.

Some of the movement’s opponents may disagree. Its plans for Saxony-Anhalt are highly controversial in Germany.

The party wants child refugees separated into special classes: “The refugee children should be given the message that their stay in Germany is only temporary.”

Its manifesto says that “sexual deviations and non-reproductive lifestyles” have been aggressively promoted over “normal family” structures.

The party argues that LGBT rainbow flags should be banned from schools, while children should learn less about the Nazis and more about positive aspects of German history.

On immigration, it would create a task force as part of plans to detain and deport migrants who no longer have the right to remain in the state, while also calling for an end to “illegal, culturally alien” mass migration.

The AfD’s pro-Russia stance has also fuelled claims that it cannot be trusted with sensitive intelligence. When a Russian army mug was seen in the office of leading AfD figure Hans-Thomas Tillschneider in Saxony-Anhalt, he said it was merely a souvenir, and “it’s not our war”.

That came as Berlin this week publicly blamed Moscow for a failed drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport. The Kremlin has denied any involvement.

Sven Schulze (centre) is the candidate for Merz’s Christian Democrats, who have ruled out cooperation with the AfD

Meanwhile, German security sources have warned that Russian-backed disinformation campaigns, often targeting AfD rivals, have been intensifying - something Moscow’s representatives call “anti-Russian hysteria”.

State governments have substantial powers over areas including local education, policing and culture, while their delegates sit in the federal government’s upper chamber, the Bundesrat.

An AfD government in Saxony-Anhalt would be able to make changes locally and gain a louder voice on the national stage.

The party remains strongest in former communist east Germany, but it is also leading the polls nationwide.

That is despite warnings that it has evolved from a Eurosceptic party founded in 2013 into one that flirts with, or attracts, extremist support.

Saxony-Anhalt is one of several states where the party is officially classified as right-wing extremist.

Domestic intelligence accuses the local branch of being shaped by a “racist ideology” and anti-constitutional aims.

The AfD, which says it is a conservative, libertarian movement, rejects those labels as politicised smears and denies any comparison with National Socialism.

Ulrich Siegmund has not ruled out abolishing domestic intelligence (BfV) in the state if the AfD wins a majority.

Other parties will not form coalitions with the AfD, as part of what is known as the Brandmauer, or firewall, that keeps the far right out of government.

That is why it must win a parliamentary majority to be certain of taking power.

In Saxony-Anhalt, the issue is no longer about making cracks in the firewall but about trying to get around it entirely.

Whether that succeeds will likely depend on whether other smaller parties win enough votes to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Politics is arithmetic, and Germany is no exception, even if the arithmetic can be highly complicated.

But if the AfD does achieve a decisive win, then a party that has used anti-establishment rhetoric to build support will face a test it has never confronted before.

Grievances could still be directed at the federal government in Berlin, but the AfD would no longer be able to attack those in power only from the outside, because it would be in power itself.

Saxony-Anhalt may be a relatively small state by population, but it is about to stage one very big election.