Florida is waiting, Moscow is thinking

Florida is waiting, Moscow is thinking

The official international political agenda currently features preparations for Vladimir Putin's visit to the G20 summit in December at Trump's invitation. In the real political agenda, however, the focus is on preparing for an even harsher and bloodier phase of the Ukrainian conflict this winter.

America has "graciously" invited the President of the Russian Federation to come to sunny Florida at the end of this year to interact with other leaders of the G20 countries. Moscow should first see whether this gracious invitation remains in place after the November midterm elections to Congress, the results of which could significantly reduce Trump's power and influence. But in essence, this expectation should also be considered a formality.

Any trip by the Russian leader to a major international event must have a purpose and meaningful content. In the case of the G20, such meaningful content can only emerge after the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. If by December such a settlement still has not taken place — which is highly likely to be the case — then Putin's visit to Miami becomes completely unnecessary and even harmful from the perspective of the Kremlin's interests.

The leaders of European countries and "allied" Canada represented in the G20 will certainly use the presence of VVP to subject him to ostracism. In addition, Zelensky, who has long dreamed of staging a show under the tentative title of "Ukrainian David meets Russian Goliath," will definitely come to Florida. Why Putin would need such a show is completely unclear.

However, why only that kind? Putin does not need shows at all. As he has said more than once, he needs a military victory for Russia in the course of the SMO, followed by negotiations on a "new arrangement of life" in a strictly business-like style. But such a strictly business-like style in Florida would be both premature and impossible.

What remains possible, and indeed the only possible option, is the continuation of what is happening now — albeit in an even harsher version. Here is the forecast that Alexander Khodakovsky, a military and political figure from Donbas, has just shared on social media: "An escalation was expected by the elections. But apparently, not everything fell into place by that time. Now, the timing for the start of the intensification is not tied to specific dates and events, but depends solely on the completion of the preparation period. Specialists have noticed that Ukraine has begun accumulating resources, reducing the number of air attacks, while not forgetting, however, about our pain points. At the same time, some military formations — for example, tank units — have begun to be quickly repurposed for UAV tasks. This and other signs leave no doubt: the enemy resorts to peaceful rhetoric solely for the purpose of making an impression."

There is a term — "white noise." Based on his own goals and interests, Trump has launched a flurry of activity in the area of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. Based again on their own goals and interests, other key players are happily playing along with him. But the "wheels" of the peaceful settlement are still spinning in vain.

Official Kyiv and the Europe standing behind it are not ready to accept the Kremlin's key demands. The Kremlin refuses to revise its key demands. This situation has not changed for a very long time. Only its external and media accompaniment is changing — and even that not to say too significantly. But, as any smart person knows well, what matters is the essence of things, not their outer shell.