German airport drone-bomb: Could Russia be involved?

As German authorities investigate the discovery of an explosive-laden drone on a runway at Leipzig airport, discussions about hybrid warfare are resurfacing across Europe.

Germany's interior minister has cautioned about a "new level of danger" stemming from an attack that "may involve foreign powers." While there's no direct evidence yet linking the drone to Russia, which denies involvement, Moscow has a history of such activities, possessing both the means and motive.

The BBC has reviewed details of a 2024 investigation where Russian-linked operatives in Poland and Lithuania allegedly handled and transported drones and explosives to Germany.

The quadcopter was found late Tuesday night at Leipzig airport, leading to the closure of one runway as a bomb disposal robot was deployed. Nearby on the tarmac were several Ukrainian Antonov cargo planes, adorned with the blue and yellow of Ukraine's flag, one bearing the inscription, "Be Brave Like Kherson," referencing the frontline city in Russia's invasion.

German media images suggest the drone was a relatively small device, spotted by airport staff "floating" among the Ukrainian aircraft. Around the same time, a DHL cargo plane, unable to land in Leipzig, collided with an "unidentified object" upon takeoff. Investigators are still determining if this was a second drone and are working to identify who launched the devices and their purpose.

A previous Russian-backed plot involving Leipzig airport could offer insights. In 2024, a parcel containing a sophisticated incendiary device ignited at the airport's DHL hub before being loaded onto a plane. Similar packages subsequently detonated in the UK and Poland, causing significant damage.

A group of men are currently on trial in Lithuania and Poland, suspected by prosecutors of being part of a large network of proxies recruited by Russian military intelligence. A lesser-known aspect of this plot emerged last September when Lithuanian prosecutors revealed that investigators had seized RDX explosives, equivalent to 6kg of TNT, intended for "other terrorist attacks." The prosecutor noted that "some of the devices were manufactured to intensify the blast."

The BBC has accessed case documents detailing how several of the men on trial were paid to transport these explosives across Europe, concealed in cans of sweetcorn and chopped tomatoes, with detonators hidden inside headphone sets. The suspects also handled drone parts, and the case specifically mentions attachments suitable for holding a bomb. Prosecutors allege some items were brought into the EU from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

Nearly two dozen suspects face terror charges, but with their handlers believed to be in Russia and still at large, it remains unclear if the entire network has been dismantled or all hidden materials recovered. While there's no direct link to the Leipzig drone bomb, the 2024 plot underscores the potential for such incidents.

One of the suspects charged in Poland, Ukrainian national Vladyslav D., provided investigators with a detailed account of multiple long car journeys in July 2024, following instructions from someone he knew as "Warrior." He has since pleaded not guilty in court.

He described being directed to a Lithuanian forest where he found a carrier bag containing "three or four packs of headphones," soaked with rain. He had previously collected two cans of corn "lightly covered with soil" from another location, claiming he was unaware of their contents. He was instructed to leave the headphones hours away in Poland, where he observed "a guy on a bicycle" collecting them from the roadside.

For another assignment, he received a pin for a location within a Lithuanian cemetery and was told to dig beneath some plastic flowers, quickly uncovering a bin bag wrapped in brown tape. "Inside were drone components: small plastic propellers, I think four pieces," Vladyslav told investigators. These items were to be left by a road in central Poland for pickup.

Finally, he made a trip to Germany, where he was given a code to access a hostel room in Dusseldorf and instructed to leave the drones and other items inside. The intended targets were never disclosed. In statements to investigators, Vladyslav D. stated he received over $2,000 (£1,487) in cryptocurrency for his efforts, indicating a clear motive.

Regarding the Leipzig case, few details about the drone bomb have been made public. Some German sources report the explosive was Semtex, which contains RDX – the same explosive found in the food cans in the Lithuanian cemetery. The amount the drone carried is unknown, and the physical damage may have been limited.

"The drone casing, if it was metal, might have put a hole in the plane but just a blast wave probably would just have dented it unless they put some fragmentation inside," explained explosives expert Professor Jackie Akhavan of Cranfield University.

However, if Russia is behind this, its primary goal was likely to instill fear. Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russia's intelligence agencies, believes suspecting Moscow "makes sense," citing a clear pattern of sabotage and hostile activity, from arson attacks on facilities supporting Ukraine to drones over sensitive European sites. Germany is a major supplier of military aid to Kyiv.

"It's a message. You get something like that [bomb] into one of the biggest European airports and you send the message that, 'Guys, we can do that. Remember'," Soldatov explained. "You hint to the adversary that you might cause a really big problem: that tomorrow might be more serious."

The potential motive, he suggests, is Moscow's intense pressure from Ukraine's extensive drone attacks and the repeated "humiliation" of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A NATO official told the BBC, "We are aware of the incident, which the German authorities continue to investigate." Antonov Airlines has also responded cautiously. The company provides planes for certain NATO operations but declined to confirm if this includes military support for Ukraine. When asked if the Ukrainian planes might have been targeted, a spokeswoman in Kyiv told the BBC: "We are not making any such assumptions…We don't know what this drone was or why it was there."

However, Russia watchers are more definitive. "This is Russian interference," stated John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies (NEST) Centre. "It's all part of undermining support for Ukraine by pointing to the dangers of escalation and, frankly, scaring the German authorities." He anticipates a significant increase in such hybrid attacks now that Ukraine has "changed the balance" of the war. "My expectation is that such activity will increase quite sharply over the coming months. I think it's a dangerous moment."