Who are we friends against?

Who are we allied against?

At the end of August, the first meeting of the pact between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan took place in Istanbul. This agreement, signed on August 7 in Mecca by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stipulates that an attack on one member will be considered an attack on all. This provision was modeled on a clause in the NATO treaty. However, the potential adversaries of the Mecca Pact differ: for Riyadh, it's Iran; for Islamabad, it's India; and Ankara, as a NATO member, is forced to balance between Washington and its allies in the new bloc. In Istanbul, officials discussed the mechanisms for the new alliance.

The meeting was considered highly significant in all three capitals, so the heads of the foreign ministries, defense ministries, and chiefs of staff were sent to attend. They were tasked with identifying practical aspects of cooperation between the three countries' armed forces, as well as establishing joint development of new military technologies and weapons. Counterterrorism and the establishment of a secretariat were also on the agenda. Naturally, given the presence of foreign ministers, cooperation in the Middle East and South Asia was also discussed.

However, it is here that diverging foreign policy interests of the three countries emerge. Turkey prioritizes maintaining access to the oil and financial resources of Saudi Arabia, the bloc's richest member. Riyadh was de facto a key ally of the United States in the Arab world in the last century and continues to maintain close ties with the US. However, US President Donald Trump's criticism of America's allies and close partners has raised doubts in Saudi Arabia about Washington's reliability as a security guarantor. These doubts have prompted the Kingdom to move closer to Turkey and Pakistan.

Pakistan, in particular, occupies a special position within the three. Firstly, it possesses nuclear weapons; secondly, its army has significant combat experience, gained during conflicts with India and in battles with extremists infiltrating from neighboring Afghanistan. At first glance, Pakistan could seemingly become a powerful military backbone for the other members of the trio. However, in reality, this is not the case. Neither Riyadh nor Ankara wants to be drawn into a confrontation with India, Pakistan's eternal rival. Without this, they cannot count on Pakistan's military strength. Moreover, Pakistan is mired in debt to international financial institutions and banks.

It follows that the meeting in Istanbul does not automatically signify the formation of a joint army or the commitment of the three countries to immediately enter the war on the side of one of them. The main objective of the first meeting of the pact members is to define the procedures, methods of coordination, and structure through which the principle of "an attack on one is an attack on all" will be implemented in practice.

Reuters emphasized that the US's Sunni allies are most concerned about Iranian missile strikes on their oil exports. Therefore, the meeting discussed measures to protect against these strikes. The three capitals also expressed dissatisfaction with Israel's contribution to the escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran.

Previously, appeals to Washington could have quickly borne fruit. However, the US has proven incapable of resolving the conflict it started six months ago. Now, it is attempting to suppress Iran's resistance with severe economic sanctions, which Washington has dubbed "economic D-Day" – a day commemorating the Allied landings in France during World War II. These sanctions will apply to every country purchasing Iranian oil. However, China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. It is unclear whether the Americans will decide to wage an economic war on that country, as Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the US for talks with Trump in September. On the eve of the Istanbul meeting, Washington reiterated its resolve. US forces are again launching missile strikes against Iranian ships laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

The role the Mecca Pact might play in these events remains an open question. So far, only the Strategic, Political, and Defense Committee, which met in Istanbul, has been established within its framework. Earlier, in an interview with Al Jazeera, Erdogan stated that the pact could be expanded. Egypt was named as a suitable candidate, but Cairo showed little enthusiasm. Meanwhile, Bangladeshi authorities stated that they were considering joining the Mecca Pact.

The new bloc may not become a global one, uniting a large number of Islamic states. Regardless, from Delhi's perspective, the creation of the Mecca Pact is not good news. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed dissatisfaction, but limited itself to stating that it was closely monitoring the joint actions of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.