What will happen to the sum exchange rate by the end of the year?
In recent months, the dollar exchange rate has remained one of the most discussed topics in Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, international financial organizations believe that Uzbekistan's economy continues to demonstrate high growth rates, and the Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy to keep inflation under control. This naturally raises the question: if the economy remains stable, is it worth buying dollars now or is it better to hold them […]
What will happen to the som exchange rate by the end of the year?
In recent months, the dollar exchange rate has remained one of the most discussed topics in Uzbekistan. International financial organizations note that the Uzbek economy continues to demonstrate high growth rates, and the Central Bank maintains a fairly tight monetary policy to control inflation. A logical question arises: if the economy is stable, is it worth buying dollars now, or is it preferable to save in the national currency?
Current Situation in the Uzbekistan Economy
According to forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Uzbekistan's economy will grow by approximately 6.8% in 2026, and inflation will slow to 6.8% by the end of the year. At the same time, the World Bank indicates that Uzbekistan's international reserves have reached approximately $70 billion, with gold accounting for approximately 86% of these reserves. The value of the dollar is determined not only by the domestic economic situation. The policy of the US Federal Reserve remains a key factor.
When US interest rates are high, the dollar typically receives additional support, as investors prefer to invest in dollar-denominated assets. If the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, however, interest in the US currency may wane. Meanwhile, IMF analysts expect the som exchange rate to remain relatively stable thanks to high remittances, robust economic growth, and substantial international reserves. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan also maintains its base rate at 14%, noting that tight monetary policy helps reduce inflation and maintains the attractiveness of savings in the national currency. However, exchange rate stability does not preclude investment opportunities. Even minor changes in the dollar's value against other currencies can create interesting opportunities in the international forex market.
For example, if an investor were to open a buy trade on the EUR/USD currency pair at around 1.158 in early January 2026 and then close it at around 1.202 in early February, the return on such a trade would be almost 3.8%. With an investment of $1,000 and a moderate 10x multiplier, the return could reach approximately 38%.
What does the future hold for the dollar?
Currently, several factors are simultaneously influencing the exchange rate of the American currency. On the one hand, the US economy is gradually slowing, and financial market participants continue to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. On the other hand, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty traditionally supports demand for the dollar as one of the world's major reserve currencies.
For Uzbekistan, additional factors of stability include a high inflow of remittances, a favorable situation in the gold and metals market, and the country's significant gold and foreign exchange reserves. Against this backdrop, the currency market may remain quite volatile until the end of the year. For investors, this means that changes in the dollar exchange rate can create opportunities not only for currency exchange but also for profiting from movements in exchange rates.
How to make money on changes in the dollar exchange rate?
Getting access to the global financial market is easy. Simply register on the Forex Club website, fund your trading account, and select the currency pair you're interested in—for example, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, or other popular instruments.
If you believe the dollar will strengthen against another currency, you can open a trade targeting a rise in the dollar. If you expect it to weaken, the platform also allows you to open trades targeting a decline. Built-in technical analysis tools, an economic calendar, and a constantly updated financial news feed help you choose the right moment to enter the market.
For those new to the financial market, Forex Club offers a free demo account with a virtual balance of $50,000. This allows you to explore the platform's capabilities, test various currency trading strategies, and gain practical experience without risking your own funds. Afterward, you can move on to trading on a live account and take advantage of the opportunities offered by the global currency market.
Monitor the financial market with Forex Club and take advantage of global currency rate fluctuations to find new investment opportunities and increase your capital.