What is stopping Russia from using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

What is stopping Russia from using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?

Since Russia began its war against Ukraine, threatening statements about the use of nuclear weapons have been made frequently by Dmitry Medvedev and other politicians. At the same time, changes have been made to Russia's nuclear doctrine. Analysts interviewed by Kun.uz assessed the possible consequences of such a possible step for Russia.

**Could Russia use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine?**

**Shavkat Saidov, historian, professor:**

So far, the issue of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia has not been mentioned, including by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the president, or military officials. When assessing this issue, it is necessary, first of all, to take into account the international consequences of the use of nuclear weapons.

The only country that has used nuclear weapons in combat conditions is the United States. Since the atomic bombs were dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II, Washington has been subject to various international criticism for this decision. Therefore, Russia's use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine could dramatically change international attitudes towards Moscow.

The position of China and India, which maintain economic and political ties with Russia, is especially important. Countries such as Indonesia are also buying Russian energy resources. However, if Russia uses nuclear weapons, the likelihood of these countries' relations with Moscow will also increase. As a result, the risk of real global isolation from Russia may arise.

It is possible that such a decision will not be supported by the Russian public either. Therefore, I consider the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the current circumstances to be extremely low.

The likelihood of the European side using such weapons is also extremely low. There is currently no military necessity that would require such a drastic step. Diplomatic contacts and various mediation initiatives around the Russia-Ukraine war are ongoing.

At the same time, the issue of nuclear deterrence is also being increasingly discussed in Europe. The debate about deploying nuclear weapons in Finland or Poland is also explained by the need to deter Russia. The deployment of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia on the territory of Belarus is also seen as part of this contradiction.

**Shuhrat Rasul, political analyst:**

I believe that today's Russia will not escalate military escalation to the nuclear level. There are at least two important reasons for this.

First, there is the question of how Ukraine will respond to a possible Russian nuclear strike. Ukrainian officials have not made any statements about what the response measures will be in such a case. However, experts close to Ukraine, some former military personnel and other unofficial figures have repeatedly stressed that the use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia will not be able to force the Ukrainian army to surrender. Because neither tactical nor even strategic nuclear weapons can destroy an entire country or a significant part of it.

Most importantly, such a strike increases the likelihood that the next stage of the war will escalate to an uncontrollable level.

The second factor is related to Russia's nuclear infrastructure on its territory. Russia has many nuclear power facilities and they could become targets for Ukrainian retaliatory strikes. Although Ukraine has not made an official statement about striking such facilities, a nuclear escalation would sharply increase the risks for both sides. Therefore, this could be a very powerful military and political deterrent for Russia.

Another important factor is the position of China and India. China remains one of Russia's most important economic partners. Although Beijing maintains relations with Moscow, Russia's use of nuclear weapons could also become a very serious problem for China. Therefore, Beijing is likely to send diplomatic signals to Moscow. India's position is also important. Trade relations with China and India are of great importance for the functioning of the Russian economy in conditions of external pressure. If these two countries sharply change their policy towards Russia or join Western sanctions, Moscow's international economic opportunities will be significantly reduced.

While Russia's economy is already under serious pressure, a complete break with its ties with China and India could have even more serious consequences. This is well understood by the Russian leadership, including President Vladimir Putin and his entourage.

Therefore, Russia's use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would be extremely risky not only militarily, but also politically and economically. These are the main factors that prevent nuclear escalation.

You can watch the full interview on the YouTube channel "Geosiosatkunuz".