Warm-up before…
In September 2026, the parliament and the CEC of Kyrgyzstan confirmed that the presidential election will take place on January 27, 2027, with the official campaign launch scheduled for December 23, 2026. Starting October 1, a whole series of noticeable moves by Japarov — his personal participation in a satellite launch in the US, a speech at the opening of the "Bishkek Arena" with elements of a "six-year report," as well as an announcement of two billion soms allocated to Osh on City Day — look like a pre-election warm-up in both form and content. The authorities have already allocated 10 billion soms to Chuy Region for its centenary. In parallel, the judicial processing of individuals connected to Tashiev continues, and on October 8, a sentence was handed down to the son of former President Kadyr Atambayev. At the same time, there is no official announcement of candidacy yet, and these steps could also be interpreted as the ordinary exercise of presidential authority. Nevertheless, if one looks, the signs of a campaign already underway are not hard to see.
Satellite launch: a "historic moment" and expert assessments
On October 1, 2026, Japarov arrived in Los Angeles and took part in the launch ceremony of Kyrgyzstan's first national satellite at Vandenberg Base in California. The satellite was put into orbit by a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket as part of cooperation with the UAE; the control center is located in Bishkek. Japarov stated that "October 1 is a historic day for Kyrgyzstan," and that future generations will remember this date.
Vice-Rector of the Kyrgyz State Technical University, Candidate of Technical Sciences Akylbek Chymyrov emphasized the strategic importance of having an in-house satellite: "Satellite data can be bought from other countries, but in certain cases, especially on security issues, it may prove unavailable. Therefore, owning its own satellite is of strategic importance for the country." He also noted the need to train specialists to operate the satellite and process the data, adding that work to develop the space and aerospace sectors has been underway at KSTU for 2-3 years now.
Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor, Director of the Institute of Machine Science, Automation, and Geomechanics Baktybek Sultanaliev believes: "Indeed, for Kyrgyzstan this is a most important step — the country is launching its own satellite for the first time. The satellite will provide access to indigenous satellite data rather than foreign data." According to him, the first satellite "will not spark a revolution in Kyrgyz science, but it creates something that did not exist at all before — indigenous space data, new engineering experience, and an example for the youth."
Economist Iskender Sharsheyev noted that if high-quality data is available, the satellite will help farmers track crop conditions and detect droughts in time, while allowing the state to assess the state of pastures, glaciers, and water resources more accurately: "Having our own satellite could reduce the need to purchase certain data from foreign sources, increase the expertise of local engineers, and boost young people's interest in science."
Ecologist Uvasip Amanbaev pointed out the benefits of satellite technology for environmental monitoring, but simultaneously drew attention to the costs: "Satellite information needs to be analyzed, processed, forecasts made separately, and decisions made based on that. Therefore, the benefit of the satellite is great, especially in the environmental sphere, but expenses must also be taken into account."
"Bishkek Arena": a "report on six years of work"
On October 5, Japarov spoke at the official opening of the "Bishkek Arena" stadium, designed for over 50 thousand people. He began with the words "today our team marks exactly six years in power," after which he consistently listed the results: over 6 years, 1,075 facilities have been built, including schools, kindergartens, hospitals, and cultural institutions, as well as 521 plants and factories. Responding to criticism along the lines of "it would be better to build factories," he stated that the stadium "brings in no less revenue than a medium or large factory." In addition, he said: "I hope that we will open dozens more such stadiums and launch thousands of satellites."
In its rhetorical structure, this looks like a full-fledged report on six years of rule. The choice of timing — the election date has already been announced (September 23-24), while the official campaign has not yet begun — falls into a period when "one can talk about achievements without breaking the rules yet." The phrase about "dozens of such stadiums" directly links what has already been achieved with future promises.
At the same time, the opening itself also revealed organizational problems. Bishkek resident Rakhat Zhumalieva said in an interview with Kabar: "The opening itself amazed me — everything was incredibly large-scale, beautiful, and solemn. President Sadyr Japarov's speech was especially memorable… When 'Ala-Too' began to play, I got goosebumps, I couldn't even hold back my tears." She noted that logistics were organized at a good level: "I calmly left my car, took a bus without any problems, and easily entered the stadium." This assessment differs from reports by other media outlets regarding a mass exodus of spectators due to a dragged-out program, freezing weather, and a transport collapse.
Money for Osh: the breakdown for the southern electoral hub
On October 4-5, Osh celebrated its 3026th anniversary. Mayor Akaev announced at the celebration that Japarov decided to allocate two billion soms from the budget for the development of city infrastructure.
A chronological detail is important here: earlier reports show that in March 2026 for Nooruz/Navruz, Japarov had already announced 2.7 billion soms for Osh, of which "400 million soms were separately from the stabilization fund." Whether the October two billion is a new amount or a repackaging of a previous promise cannot be asserted based on available information. But the announcement of budget funds four months before the election and at a festive venue in the southern capital is politically very telling. Osh holds special significance in the electoral geography of Kyrgyzstan — the southern electorate traditionally determines the outcome of elections.
Individuals connected to Tashiev: continuation of the "preventive" purge
There are few specific details about "new arrests and removals of Tashiev appointees in October" in the available materials. In accessible sources, the judicial processing of individuals connected to Tashiev mainly dates to February-May 2026: on February 10, Tashiev was dismissed from his posts as Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman of the GKNB, followed by the sequential processing of his deputies Danil Rysaliev and Timur Shabdanbekov, while at least 8 people were detained within the GKNB itself.
However, on October 10, 2026, a new report emerged: former First Deputy Chairman of the GKNB Kurvanbek Avazov, who held the position from December 2025 to February 2026, and former Minister of Health Kanybek Dosmambetov, who previously headed the GKNB department for Jalal-Abad Region, were arrested on charges of corruption and bribery. The Pervomaisky District Court of Bishkek selected a preventive measure for them in the form of detention.
In parliament, Tashiev's resignation was explicitly called a "preventive strike against the election." Jogorku Kenesh Deputy Elvira Surabaldieva stated in an interview that Tashiev was removed for organizing a coup attempt: "The President is a magnanimous man. Perhaps he feels sorry for Tashiev because he is his friend… But it is very hard for the president right now, because his long-time friend tried to oust him from his post." She also added: "You can't boil two ram heads in one cauldron. It seems that is precisely the case here."
Sentence for Atambayev's son: closing another opposition line
On October 8, 2026, the Pervomaisky District Court of Bishkek handed down a verdict in the case of the "Social Democrats." The son of former President Almazbek Atambayev, SDPK leader Kadyr Atambayev, was found guilty under Article 326 of the Criminal Code ("violent seizure of power") and sentenced to 4 years in prison with confiscation of property. Politician Temirlan Sultanbekov received 7 years. Former MP Kubanychbek Kadyrov was fully acquitted. The prosecution had requested 7 years and 6 months for Atambayev.
Kadyr Atambayev himself did not plead guilty and issued a statement after the verdict was read, questioning the reliability of the evidence: "I am not acquainted with the other figures in the case, except for Temirlan Sultanbekov." He also pointed out that the defense "could not obtain the GKNB expert opinion for over 100 days," which formed the basis for the arrest, and expressed bewilderment as to why the trial was transferred from Alamudun District to Pervomaisky.
The political meaning of the verdict is tied to its timing: the case was initiated in late November 2025, and the sentence was handed down on October 8, 2026 — two weeks after the election announcement and two months before the start of the campaign. The Atambayev family long remained the most organized opposition line against the current government. Almazbek Atambayev himself received 11 years and 6 months *in absentia* back in June 2025, and in December 2025 was stripped of all state awards by Japarov's order. The sentencing of his son four months before the election objectively cuts off the party from a key figure of political mobilization.
Are these actions "an already started campaign"?
From the perspective of formal legality, the official campaign starts only on December 23; all current actions fit within the framework of ordinary presidential powers. But from the perspective of political logic, the cumulative effect of the five elements cannot be ignored: the time window (election announcement — president's actions), narrative frame (achievements of six years), geography (money for Osh and Chuy Region — the country's most populous regions), purging competitors (Tashiev and Atambayev), judicial rhythm (sentencing two months before the campaign launch).
Taken together, an actual pre-election warm-up is already underway. An official campaign statement will likely be made closer to the end of December, when all the accumulated "baggage of achievements" will naturally turn into campaign material.