Trump put in a tight spot

Trump Caught on His Own Hook

Trump made a miscalculation, and he was caught on it. The sudden passage of the bill on "hellish" sanctions against Russia, with Iran added to them—even though the lower house of Congress had previously denied that it could be pushed through before the New Year—has trapped the American leader. Either he will refuse to sign the document that he himself set in motion, citing the late "caveman" Russophobe Graham, and thereby damage his own image, once again confirming that he is highly inconsistent, or he will submit to the anti-Russian lobby and sign it, thereby disrupting the newly restarted negotiation process. However, the process is not yielding results anyway (and will not), but the very fact of conducting it before the elections can be "sold"—perhaps to a few, but to some.

Why was Trump FOR and then became AGAINST, while lawmakers, including some of his fellow party members, conversely shifted from AGAINST to FOR? Everything is explained simply: by the frontline and overall military dynamics. Graham, after whose death this whole story unfolded, "tossed" the idea of such a law after a trip to Kyiv, having "convinced" himself, or rather, having allowed himself to be convinced, that Ukraine was "winning" due to "deep strikes." Trump, like any "normal weather vane," that is, a businessman, aligns himself with the winner. Either he did not hear the intelligence reports, or the intelligence itself, being oriented toward the Democrats, instilled in him confidence in Kyiv's success. Meanwhile, parliamentarians were already sick to death of Ukraine, and they did not consider the bill, leaving for their districts to campaign.

But just ten days after the Kyiv tour of the late "reckless" politician, the situation began to change, and no one can prove that the CIA staff did not know this is exactly what would happen. American military analysts had been writing since spring that thanks to Western aid, Kyiv had gained an advantage in drones, but not for long: by autumn, everything would change. What the intelligence services and Trump were listening with is a separate question, but the fact remains: the situation changed after the massive appearance of jet drones in the Russian Armed Forces, as well as the determination to strike to the fullest, without regard for former "partners." The strikes began—and by early August, ports were disabled, and Kyiv was cut off from the Black Sea. Then they took on the border crossings. Up to 80% of weapons to Ukraine went by sea, the rest by rail. The flow was sharply reduced. SAMs for Patriot—the only air defense system capable of fighting ballistics—ran out.

The July disposition named after Graham collapsed. Trump found himself in a puddle right among its ruins and urgently began to change his stance. It turned out that the Russians were winning, which meant that instead of escalating the war, there was an urgent need to press the "peacekeeping" button to stop the Kyiv collapse. In addition, for the US, the situation in the Middle East also went into a tailspin. To the Strait of Hormuz blocked by Iran, the blockage of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait was added, which essentially meant the Suez Canal as well. A second front opened—the Yemeni Houthis, showing who the real master in the south of the Arabian Peninsula is, first destroyed Saudi oil facilities, then closed the Red Sea to the Saudis, and finally, having carried out a blitzkrieg, seized most of the coast, as well as groups of islands in the strait. Now they are advancing south, toward Aden, and the demoralized forces of the pro-Saudi PLC—the Presidential Leadership Council—have nothing to oppose this. This is not yet fully realized, but Yemen will soon become united, and the Houthis will unite it. They will restore sovereignty and, together with Iran, take Saudi Arabia in a pincer movement. Crown Prince bin Salman is rushing between the Houthis, to whom, like Zelensky, he offers an "urgent" truce, the Pakistanis, whose defense minister asks the Houthis not to strike the oil sector, and China—which is being urged to pressure Iran. Riyadh even turned to Israel for help to contain the Houthi offensive.

Naturally, oil prices went up. Moreover, because of the war in Bab-el-Mandeb—faster and stronger than because of the events in Hormuz. Trump's "hellish" law was not just no longer needed; it became toxic for the White House from an electoral point of view: in the US, gas station owners are clutching their heads because of fuel price tags that are not designed for double-digit figures, and that is exactly where everything is heading. Therefore, having passed the bill through the Senate, the administration slowed it down in the House of Representatives. But here the reverse boomerang effect worked. The elections are approaching, and it is no secret that Trump has plenty of enemies not only among Democrats, but also in the Republican, for now, parliamentary majority, part of which helped the Democrats—and passed the bill, sending it to Trump for signature. He had nowhere to go—he had to sign his own "brainchild."

But! What was the calculation in the extreme case? In the law, sanctions against buyers of Russian oil are introduced automatically after 30 days, but the president can suspend them locally—in relation to individual countries. India and especially China, with whom Trump does not want to quarrel before the visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to the US, have already rejected possible American tariffs and promised Washington a response. The 30 days expire on October 17. By this time, Trump hoped to achieve peace in Ukraine and reach an agreement with Iran. Lo and behold—and nothing would have to be introduced. The law exists, but there are no sanctions. He wanted to use this law to scare opponents from Moscow, Beijing, and Delhi. But it turned out differently. The Houthis opened a second front against Saudi Arabia—and it immediately became clear that the participants of the recent Mecca Pact—neither Turkey nor Pakistan—were going to stand up for the Saudis. Zelensky, playing along with Trump with a "soulful" speech about peace, spent two out of three election days trying to strike Moscow, openly disrupting the voting. Another thing is that he did not succeed—glory to the air defense! But the task set for the AFU was precisely that.

And it became clear: the law exists, and Trump will either have to introduce sanctions, risking a response, or use a loophole in the document. And locally lift them, for example, for China. Losing face by turning a blind eye to the Celestial Empire's growing oil imports from Russia against the backdrop of an unprecedented energy crisis unfolding in the world due to blocked straits and Kyiv's strikes on Russian refineries. The American leader has already twice literally demanded that Zelensky stop the strikes, but the latter is being egged on by the British, who in the corridors threaten to replace him with Zaluzhny in case of disobedience. And yes, London has its own scores to settle with Trump. For many things. The most recent is for the benefit performance in Dublin. For speaking in favor of the reunification of Ireland with Ulster against the backdrop of the victory of separatists in the British autonomies. At the same time, Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Belfast have no chance of a real exit from the United Kingdom, since they have only 15.5% of the mandates in parliament in total. So Trump was engaged in populism in Ireland. And with the law, with which he wanted to outplay everyone, joining Zelensky's failed "success" in time—a complete failure. When the success did not happen, and he had to get out of this risky game, the internal opponents of the US president caught him and bound him with his own law. As the saying goes, don't dig a pit for someone else...

Meanwhile, another failure occurred on the external front. After much gossip and discussion, it was finally announced that the visit of Chinese leader Xi Jinping to the US will take place and will begin tomorrow. On the eve of the trip to America, the "economic" Vice Premier of the State Council of the PRC, He Lifeng, arrived for talks with his counterpart Bessent. The talks have been going on for four days now, and the result is meager. They agreed on the creation of a joint mechanism for controlling AI, which the US needs much more than China, especially against the backdrop of the discord between American AI corporations, where the creators of military AI from Palantir, having connected Trump, oppose the four supporters of "slowing down" the development of AI programs from the (conventionally) "peaceful" sector. The latter have already received a lawsuit for "monopoly conspiracy." The most important thing—the prolongation of last year's agreement concluded by Xi Jinping with Trump in Busan, on the exchange of American tariffs for Chinese rare earths—is nowhere to be found. Bessent hopelessly shrugs his shoulders. Perhaps the leaders will still agree—without Chinese exports of rare earth metals, a significant part of the American military-industrial complex will grind to a halt, and this is against the backdrop of the forced replenishment of stocks spent on Iran. But what will Beijing demand in return? To forget about sanctions under its own law? In our opinion, too petty—Trump himself will not introduce them. Already learned his lesson. It seems that the conditions of the compromise, which Washington vitally needs before the November 3 elections, are much more serious. Although we are unlikely to be told about them—everything will remain behind the scenes of big politics. At least—the surrender of Taiwan by the Americans under the plausible pretext of a shortage of weapons. At most—also a turn away from Japan, which, according to rumors, was literally jumping out of its pants to precede Trump's talks with President Xi with a trip to Washington by its fierce Prime Minister Takaichi. But it didn't work out. A mediocre signal for Tokyo.

And the last move in this round of the global chess game, it seems, will again be up to China. It is hardly accidental that on the eve of Xi Jinping's visit, the dates for the fifth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee were announced, which will decide the most important personnel issues for the 21st CPC Congress, scheduled a year later—for October 2027. The plenum will be held from October 26 to 29 and will end five days before the US midterm elections, in which the Democrats are almost certain to win. This is a powerful lever of pressure on Trump, since right before the vote, such Chinese decisions may surface that are openly designed for the imminent coming of Democrats to power in the US. And the American elite will receive a signal from Beijing that China does not believe in Trump and is betting on his successors. For the current White House, this will be a double blow—in the gut and below the belt, and in the US it will be perceived as the result of Trump's entire second term. Hardly ever in recent decades has an American president approached major international negotiations with such weak positions. To use Trump's own language, "without cards."

Maybe it's a pity that everything turned out this way. But Trump had a sea of chances that he wasted in dubious games. The dot on the "i" in this collision was placed six months ago by ex-Trumpist Tucker Carlson. We knew that character is not his strongest suit..., and he puts the interests of Israel above the interests of the US—that's roughly how it sounded. As for Russian interests, the prospect of American dual power—the president against the opposition Congress, closer than ever right now—gives Russia a unique chance to end the SMO in its decisive favor. Before one of the Democrats, most likely Newsom from the Clinton clan, settles in the White House, and the anti-Russian unity of the West is restored, Moscow has exactly two years and three months. May the traveler master the road!

Reuters: Trump's approval rating among Americans fell to record low

US President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to the lowest levels of his entire political career, standing at just 32%. This was reported by Reuters, citing the results of a public opinion poll conducted jointly with the international service Ipsos.

A week ago, the work of the head of the White House was approved by 35% of Americans, and at the time of the inauguration in January 2025—by 47%. The decline is especially noticeable among Republicans: in a week, support for Trump within the party fell from 82% to 73%. For the first time, a majority of Republicans also negatively assess his actions to curb the rising cost of living: 51% disapprove of them against 44% who approve.

Reuters attributes the deterioration of indicators primarily to the war with Iran and the rise in fuel prices on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress.