The result of the election to Congress will affect the US mediation role in the Ukraine war – political scientist

The result of the Congressional elections will affect the US mediation role in the Ukraine war – political scientist

Looking at the Russian media and propaganda, it can be seen that this time, the arrival of Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff in Moscow was received more positively than before. This time, Russia is showing a much greater interest in American mediation. Previously, Moscow also seemed to approve of US mediation, but in practice, it continued its own policy. Now, the situation has changed. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, the Russia-Ukraine war has moved directly into Russia's internal territories. Russia's energy system has taken a serious hit. Attacks on major online stores and logistics networks are increasing economic and social pressure. In some regions, kilometer-long queues for cars are appearing due to fuel supply problems.

All of this is affecting the social mood in Russia. The war is no longer just an event on television screens for Russian society. It has begun to directly affect daily life, people's income, movement, and safety.

This change is also noticeable in conversations with Uzbeks living in Russia: while previously the war was perceived more as a political issue, now its consequences are entering the personal lives of many. As a result, the negative attitude towards Ukraine is becoming even more acute.

The second important factor is that Donald Trump's political time is running out. More than two years of his presidential term have already passed. If the Republicans lose their majority in Congress in the midterm elections and the Democrats strengthen, the US mediation policy in the Russia-Ukraine war could become significantly more complicated. If forces supporting Ukraine regain dominance in Congress, the likelihood of strengthening military and financial aid to Kyiv will also increase. From this point of view, the current period is seen as a political opportunity for Russia.

Of course, Ukraine is not in an easy situation either. As we noted in our previous conversations, the fact that only a quarter of the promised funds have arrived is limiting Kyiv's capabilities. Therefore, Moscow is trying not to miss the opportunity to reach an agreement now through the mediation of the Trump administration.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner emphasize that they understand well how to communicate with Putin and what tone to use in negotiations with the Russian leader. That is, Washington is choosing a cautious diplomacy in these negotiations that takes into account Putin's political and psychological approaches, rather than harsh pressure. Putin, on the other hand, may realize that it is difficult to find a better mediation format in the current situation. For this reason, Russia is trying to make maximum use of the existing US mediation opportunity and to consolidate its interests through negotiations before moving to the next stage of the war.

Indeed, Ukraine's current strategy of striking Russia's internal territories is yielding a certain effect. The main goal of this strategy is to weary Russian society of the war and thereby force Vladimir Putin and the elite around him into negotiations. However, looking at the current military situation, the advantage in using drones, ballistic, and cruise missiles is on the Russian side. In particular, the use of missile systems such as the Iskander-M and the new Iskander-1000 is expanding Russia's strike capabilities.

Russia has also significantly limited Ukraine's capabilities in the Black Sea. Subsequent strikes are aimed at logistics connections in Ukraine's western and southwestern directions. The strikes on border areas with Moldova, and before that on routes connected with Romania, bear witness to this. According to recent statements by Donald Tusk, intelligence has been received about the possibility of strikes on important border and logistics points between Poland and Ukraine.

If this information is confirmed, Russia's goal may be to further weaken Ukraine's main logistics connections with the West. In addition, the drop in the water level of the Danube River is also affecting some of Ukraine's logistics capabilities. At the same time, Russia is targeting key infrastructure facilities in Kyiv, trying to increase pressure on the transport and supply system of the city, which is divided into two parts by the Dnipro River. The situation on the front also complicates the overall picture.

Russian troops maintain their activity in the Sumy and Kharkiv directions. In the south, in the Lyman direction, Ukrainian troops have moved to counter-offensive actions. If we take into account the next three to four months, the overall situation may be difficult for Ukraine in the future. Financial and military aid from Europe is insufficient, especially a shortage of missiles and air defense systems is felt. For this reason, Kyiv is consistently demanding more deliveries of missiles and air defense systems from Western countries. From this point of view, it can be said that the current situation is falling harder on Ukraine than on Russia.

The arrival of the negotiators takes on important significance precisely in these circumstances. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are primarily interested in bringing Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table and reaching an agreement. This is also very important for Donald Trump, as he made big promises regarding ending the war. The domestic political situation in the US can also directly affect this process. Democrats and even some Republican elites who oppose Trump are interested in his political weakening. Because Trump, promoting the "America First" policy, is choosing a harsher approach in relations with traditional US allies. This is seen as one of the factors affecting the West's ability to act as a unified political system. Therefore, ending the war as quickly as possible is also politically important for Trump.

Zelenskyy also initially emphasized the need to end the war by winter, i.e., by the end of the year. Later, however, opinions emerged that the timeframe for negotiations and a potential agreement could extend until spring. Even forecasts that the war could continue until 2028 are being voiced. Thus, there are currently various and contradictory views on the situation. But an important aspect of Kushner and Witkoff's approach is that in Russia, the authority to make the final decision rests mainly with Putin himself. Public mood and internal political processes may affect him to some extent, but the Russian system differs from the political mechanisms in European countries or the US. In their opinion, Moscow is not very interested in a short-term truce right now.

Russia wants not a temporary halt to the war, but a broader peace agreement that would prevent a new conflict from arising later. That is, for Moscow, not a simple truce, but an agreement defining the final terms of the war is important.

At the same time, the Russian president indicates that he also agrees to trilateral negotiations. Zelenskyy also does not reject a negotiation format involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Therefore, for now, it is difficult to make a precise forecast of how this process will end. The parties' readiness for negotiations exists, but their positions on the terms under which to end the war still differ sharply.