The Race for Data Centers: An Opportunity for Uzbekistan

**The Data Center Race: A Chance for Uzbekistan**

Global demand for computing power for artificial intelligence continues to grow. Can Uzbekistan attract large data centers, and what will it take?

The US has launched the largest infrastructure race in history for AI computing power. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta plan capital expenditures ranging from $130 billion to $220 billion each for 2026.

Electricity has become one of the key constraints in the market. Grid connection takes several years, moratoria and construction restrictions have affected 46 US states, and average industrial electricity prices have risen by 35% over five years. This is forcing companies to look for new regions and countries to place their capacities.

Uzbekistan possesses a set of advantages rare for the region: a special regime for AI projects (UP-189), two special legal regimes with elements of English law ("Enterprise Uzbekistan" and the TIFC), a relatively competitive electricity tariff, and significant renewable energy (RES) potential.

However, to turn these advantages into real investment projects, the country needs ready-made sites with access to electricity for investors.

The US data center market is the largest in the world, and it is growing at a record pace. According to JLL, by the end of 2025, 39 GW of data center capacity was operational in North America, with more than 66 GW under construction by mid-2026. For comparison: at full capacity, the facilities under construction will consume more electricity than all of Germany. There is almost no free capacity available — the vacancy rate is about 1.4%.

A class of megaprojects has emerged. For example, the Stargate program, with planned investments of $500 billion, secured access to more than 10 GW of future capacity. OpenAI and Anthropic are negotiating for tens of gigawatts of capacity. For scale: 1 GW at 90% load consumes approximately as much electricity in a year as 750,000 American households. Building an AI campus with advanced NVIDIA chips and server equipment costs $40–60 billion per gigawatt.

By 2027, according to JLL, the main type of workload among AI tasks may shift from model training to inference — the use of already trained models. Remote large campuses are suitable for training, whereas proximity to the end user is important for inference. Therefore, the role of regional centers is growing. Realistic niches for Uzbekistan could include data centers for training models, where remoteness from users is not an issue, and for inference within its region.

**Investment Dynamics.** According to Dell’Oro Group, global capital expenditures on data centers grew by 57% in 2025. The company expects their volume to exceed $3 trillion by 2030. About half of these expenditures will come from Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft, with AI accelerators remaining the primary item.

**Energy.** The growth of computing power is accompanied by a sharp increase in electricity demand. According to the International Energy Agency, global electricity consumption by data centers will almost double by 2030. In the US, more electricity will be spent on data processing than on the production of aluminum, steel, cement, and chemical products combined. The consumption of American data centers will grow 2–3.5 times by 2030.

The main problem of the market is a chronic shortage of electrical capacity. Under these conditions, companies have three options: wait for grid connection, which can take more than four years, build their own generation, or place capacity in other countries. More and more developers are choosing on-site self-generation; however, delivery times for large gas turbines reach five years or more.

In addition, the US market has faced resistance from the public and local authorities. In the first half of 2026, local opposition led to the blocking or delay of at least 120 projects with a total announced value of almost $200 billion. The main reasons include fears of rising residential electricity prices, water consumption, emissions, and limited economic returns for local communities.

The scale of restrictions continues to grow. Local authorities are increasingly introducing moratoria on data center construction or tightening requirements for new projects.

By presidential decree (UP-189), a special regime for AI infrastructure projects was created in Karakalpakstan. The package includes:

In addition, the "Enterprise Uzbekistan" and Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC) regimes provide a legal framework with elements of the common law of England and Wales, along with the option to resolve disputes in the Tashkent International Commercial Court.

By the end of 2026, Uzbekistan plans to commission nearly 6 GW of new generating capacity, mainly solar and thermal generation, as well as about 0.9 GW of energy storage.

At the same time, several key risks for data center development remain:

To reduce dependence on individual transit countries, at least three independent international fiber-optic routes should be provided. In Karakalpakstan, where water scarcity persists, priority must be given to closed-loop liquid cooling systems with minimal water consumption. These requirements need to be factored in as early as the site selection stage.

Other countries competing for investment in AI infrastructure use different approaches. Their experience highlights several solutions that could be useful for Uzbekistan.

| Country | Key Incentives | Takeaway for Uzbekistan |

|---|---|---|

| Saudi Arabia | Special zone for cloud companies, option for 100% foreign ownership and free profit repatriation | Link investment incentives to the legal regime of the Tashkent International Financial Centre (TIFC) |

| UAE | Government co-financing of projects, coordination with the US on advanced chip supplies | Conduct negotiations with US regulators in advance and consider government co-financing for major projects |

| Kazakhstan | Special economic zone incentives, application of English law in the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) | Compete for investors through project execution speed and access to renewable energy |

| Ireland (Negative Experience) | Data centers consume nearly a quarter of the country's electricity. Grid connections for new facilities in the Dublin area are effectively suspended | Consider the grid's capacity and avoid guaranteeing investors unlimited grid connection |

The current electricity tariff for data centers in Uzbekistan is lower than in Saudi Arabia, but higher than in Turkmenistan, Qatar, Kyrgyzstan, and China's Xinjiang. Meanwhile, for its "Data Center Valley," Kazakhstan is working on a tariff of around $0.025/kWh.

The experience of neighboring countries in attracting American technology and investment is also telling.

In Armenia, the US company Firebird opened a 15 MW AI factory — the first phase of a $500 million project. The development of the next phase became possible after obtaining a US export license for the supply of 41,000 NVIDIA GB300 GPUs. Total investment in the project after the second phase is estimated at over $5 billion.

In Kazakhstan, a $10 billion package of agreements was signed with Firebird and NVIDIA. The state company Kazakhtelecom is investing $1 billion in the project.

Uzbekistan is still taking its first steps. The Ministry of Digital Technologies announced its intention to buy two computing clusters with a total capacity of 1 MW from NVIDIA and tied contract signing deadlines to US export approvals. The most notable project under construction — the DataVolt data center in Tashkent — is designed for 12 MW. However, in terms of scale, these projects are noticeably inferior to those of neighboring countries.

The decisions made — UP-189, the TIFC, and "Enterprise Uzbekistan" regimes — create a good foundation. Now it is important to turn them into an offer that an investor will answer with a contract.

The site selection practices of Microsoft, AWS, and Google highlight the main requirements of large investors.

First and foremost is the power commissioning timeline: a guaranteed connection date for 100 MW or more, with the possibility of expansion. Next in importance are the cost and stability of electricity (long-term contract), predictability of rules (arbitration, stabilization clauses), land with long-term leases, compliance with US chip requirements, and the tax and customs regime.

Armenia's experience shows how important an agreement with the US is for gaining access to advanced chips. The Armenian breakthrough began with a memorandum on AI and semiconductors signed with Washington, after which an export license was issued. Uzbekistan should pursue a similar agreement and tie a specific project with pre-approved licenses to it. The state could become the first customer for computing power in the process.

The UP-189 incentive package is comparable to the regimes in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but investors care not only about tax benefits, but also about contract enforceability, protection from rule changes, and clear arbitration.

Therefore, it would be more effective to strengthen the legal component and link the package to the "Enterprise Uzbekistan" and TIFC regimes.

Uzbekistan will most likely be able to conclude its first major deal not with Microsoft, Amazon, or Google — for whom the country is not yet a priority market — but with specialized cloud companies or data center developers. Potential partners include Oracle, CoreWeave, Vantage Data Centers, QTS/Blackstone, and Digital Realty. Such companies can build computing capacity for specific customers. Negotiations with the largest technology corporations must be conducted in parallel.

To compete for major projects, Uzbekistan needs a clear set of proposals for investors. Ready-made sites, reliable power supply, and predictable rules should form its foundation.

**First** — prepare sites before public announcements.

A detailed technical data sheet should be compiled for each site, specifying: land area and legal status, available electrical capacity, grid connection timelines, self-generation sources independent of domestic consumption, water supply and cooling capabilities, as well as international communication channels.

Separately, expenses for constructing substations and power lines must be defined. This will allow potential investors to evaluate the project and move on to discussing specific deal terms.

**Second** — extend the special regime (UP-189) to three more regions: Navoi, where gas generation can be combined with renewable energy; Syrdarya — one of the country's major energy hubs; and Tashkent — with its developed internet infrastructure for running trained AI models and access to engineering talent.

**Third** — secure a fixed tariff of $0.04 per kWh without surge multipliers.

Currently, during peak hours, a 1.5 multiplier increases the tariff from $0.05 to $0.075 per kWh. For data centers operating 24/7, this raises the overall cost of power supply.

This refers to electricity from new power plants built for a specific project (primarily renewables), rather than capacity intended for the general public.

A tariff of 4 cents fully covers the cost of new generation, so data centers will not be subsidized at the expense of other consumers. Large high-voltage consumers worldwide pay less than residential ones because they do not require distribution networks.

**Fourth** — revise the requirements for daily load shedding during peak hours.

Major cloud companies require virtually uninterrupted data center operation, making regular restrictions a red flag. The network operator should retain the right to limit consumption only during emergency shortages — for a pre-agreed number of hours per year and with compensation.

**Fifth** — simplify the provision of land leases for 49–99 years at nominal prices and create a single window with clear processing deadlines for applications. Allow the registration of project companies under the TIFC jurisdiction with the option to resolve disputes in the Tashkent International Commercial Court or international arbitration. Provide guarantees for foreign exchange transactions and enshrine protection for investors against changes to agreed terms in contracts.

Even the US cannot keep up with the growing demand for computing power. Power shortages and local resistance to data center construction open an opportunity for Uzbekistan to attract new investors. The race will be won by whoever has energy infrastructure ready in advance and a predictable legal regime.

At the same time, the window of opportunity is closing fast. Armenia has already launched the first phase of its AI factory and obtained a US license for advanced chip supplies; Kazakhstan has signed multi-billion-dollar agreements. If project preparation and negotiations with partners are not accelerated, investors currently selecting sites in Central Asia and the Caucasus may make their choice without us.

For the country, this is about more than just investment. Projects will bring new generation capacity and grids that will remain in the power system. Construction will create thousands of jobs, while the facilities themselves will offer high-paying positions for engineers and drive demand for their training. Uzbek companies and government agencies will gain access to domestic computing power, and digital service exports will become a new source of revenue.

Uzbekistan is capable of entering the global race for computing power. Achieving this requires more than just tax incentives. It demands ready-made sites, a fixed competitive tariff, the extension of the special regime to other regions, reliable legal guarantees, and an agreement with the US on the supply of advanced chips.