The Central Bank kept the main rate unchanged at 14 percent
Although annual inflation stands at 6.4 percent and inflationary expectations continue to decline, the Central Bank believes that high domestic demand and price volatility in global markets are strengthening inflationary risks.
The Central Bank maintains the main rate at 14 percent
The Board of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, at its meeting on November 4, decided to leave the main rate unchanged at 14 percent per annum.
This rate has remained unchanged since March 2025.
"Although inflation expectations are declining and the inflation rate has relatively stabilized, the remaining inflationary risks associated with high domestic demand and changing external economic conditions necessitate the continuation of tight monetary conditions," the regulator's commentary states.
In September, overall inflation stood at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, accelerating slightly compared to August. This was influenced by an increase in the prices of fruits and vegetables, fuels, and certain services. Services inflation accelerated to an annual 7 percent. Core inflation remained unchanged at 5.5 percent.
In recent months, the influence of supply factors on inflation dynamics has been increasing. At the same time, a slight increase in the share of goods and services with annual price growth above 5 percent indicates that inflationary pressures persist. Under these conditions, monetary policy remains aimed at limiting potential secondary inflationary effects caused by supply factors.
Inflation expectations of the population and business entities continued to decline. In particular, in September, the population's inflation expectations for the next 12 months stood at 8.7 percent, while business entities' expectations were 9.2 percent.
High volatility of food prices in world markets and risks associated with energy resource prices are intensifying external inflationary pressure. The impact of these factors on domestic prices through import prices, production, and transport costs may slow down the disinflation process.
High activity in the economy continued, with economic growth in January–September 2026 reaching 8.3 percent compared to the same period last year. Industry, construction, and services were the main drivers of growth.