Sumy looks strong: August is going in its favor
By August 20, 2026, the Uzbek som had strengthened further against the US dollar. The market is currently trading at 11,785 som per USD. This means that in the week since our previous review, the som has appreciated by another 1.21%.
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The Uzbek sum is showing resilience: August is shaping up in its favor.
By August 20, 2026, the Uzbek sum continued to strengthen against the US dollar. Currently, the market price for one dollar is 11,785 sums, indicating a 1.21% appreciation over the past week since the previous review.
Earlier, last week, the sum declined by 0.39%, while prior to that, it had grown by approximately 1%. Thus, the dynamics of the national currency of Uzbekistan in August were uneven, but overall, the sum has maintained its strengthening trend.
In 2026, the Uzbek economy continues to demonstrate high growth rates, and inflation is gradually approaching the Central Bank's targets.
The regulator fixed the key rate at 14%, supporting the attractiveness of savings in the national currency.
Significant international reserves, primarily gold, provide additional support for the sum.
However, the national currency's exchange rate is determined not only by domestic factors. The tight monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve supports the dollar on the global market. The dynamics of remittances, export revenues, and the trade balance are also important for the sum. A separate risk factor is the temporary suspension of gold exports, which reduces the inflow of foreign currency and increases the sum's dependence on other external receipts.
Therefore, when it comes to savings, the choice between the sum and the dollar in the current situation depends more on the stated goals. A high interest rate gives sum-denominated instruments an advantage in terms of current returns, while the dollar allows for mitigating currency risks over a longer horizon.
Assuming the Central Bank maintains a tight policy and stable external receipts, there are few preconditions for a sharp weakening of the sum. However, moderate exchange rate fluctuations will remain a normal part of market dynamics.
The projected range for the dollar/sum pair for the coming week of August is 11,600-12,000 soums.
Anna Bodrova, Alpari analyst.