Russia-Ukraine war: What is the "real situation" that Putin is talking about?
The Russian president has said he is ready to negotiate with Ukraine, but this should be based on the real situation on the front. Kiev, on the other hand, is proposing a cessation of hostilities on the current front line. Although the two positions may seem similar, in reality Moscow is demanding the transfer of territories that it has not yet occupied but considers its territory. This shows that the new talk of "readiness for peace" is also rhetorical.
Russia-Ukraine conflict: What does Putin mean by "real situation"?
The Russian president has expressed his readiness for negotiations with Ukraine, but stressed that this process should be based on the "real situation" on the front. Kiev, on the other hand, is proposing a cessation of hostilities on the current front line. Although these two positions may seem similar, in fact Moscow is demanding the surrender of lands that it has not yet fully occupied, but considers its territory. This suggests that recent statements about "readiness for peace" are rhetorical.
Political analysts discussed this topic in the "Geopolitics" program.
Abduvali Soybnazarov noted that for almost four and a half years, both Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been saying that they are ready for negotiations. However, the conditions that both sides put forward for negotiations and their approaches to the issue differ sharply.
Vladimir Putin emphasizes that negotiations should first of all take into account the real situation on the front line. According to his position, since Russia is gradually advancing on the front, the terms of the agreement should also be determined by the situation on the battlefield. Russia considers Donbass, as well as Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, to be its territory in full. Moscow has been demanding that the international community and Ukraine recognize the annexation of these territories to Russia. The fact that Luhansk region has almost completely come under Russian control is also seen as an important factor in the Kremlin's negotiating position.
Therefore, it is difficult to interpret Putin's statement that he is "ready for negotiations" as a willingness to make concessions. On the contrary, the Kremlin's basic position has not changed: "the negotiations should be conducted taking into account Russia's achievements on the front and territorial claims." So, although Putin is expressing his readiness for negotiations, this does not mean that Russia has abandoned its previous demands.
According to Shukhrat Rasul, Vladimir Putin says that Russia is ready for negotiations, but he claims that the "exotic proposals" put forward by Ukraine are not acceptable to Moscow. The main question here is how the interpretations of the parties about the "real situation" differ. Ukraine has been proposing to stop or freeze the war on the current front line for more than a year. Putin, on the other hand, says that an agreement should be based on the situation on the front line, that is, on the "reality on the ground." In fact, maintaining the front line that Zelensky proposes is also the real situation on the ground. However, the Kremlin means something else by "real situation." According to Putin's interpretation, the territories that Russia claims, but are currently under Ukrainian control, should also be transferred to Russia as part of the negotiations. For example, fighting is ongoing in the areas of Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Konstantinovka. The part of Donbass that has not passed to Russian control is still in Ukrainian hands. So, for Putin, the "real situation" means not just freezing the current front line, but also including Russia's territorial claims in the agreement.