On guard of the homeland

Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been appointed to one of Iran's key positions—Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council. Rezaei is known as a conservative, a hardliner in domestic and foreign policy, and close to the Supreme Leader (Rahbar) Mojtaba Khamenei. Experts believe this appointment reduces the likelihood of concessions from Iran and indicates the Iranian authorities' readiness for a protracted, uncompromising confrontation with the United States rather than negotiations.

The Supreme National Security Council is a vital element of the Iranian system of government. Its members include the heads of all security agencies, the foreign minister, and the head of the judiciary, and the president is considered its formal chairman. However, in reality, the Council has always reported to the Supreme Leader, who approves the main directions of domestic and foreign policy. The Secretary of the Council, although formally subordinate to the president, has always served as the representative of the Rahbar.

In Iran's current political system, this position takes on particular significance. President Masoud Pezeshkian, considered a reformer by Iranian standards, acts within the scope of his powers, which are comparable to those of a prime minister in a presidential republic. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had held the post of Rahbar since 1989, was assassinated on February 28. His son and presumptive successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public since. His statements are read out by newscasters, and he did not even attend his father's funeral. Iranian authorities claim that the Rahbar was wounded in a US strike but is capable of performing his duties, and his absence from public view is explained by security concerns.

"Whether he is alive or dead, healthy or ill is irrelevant. It is absolutely clear, and many analysts, political scientists, and politicians are saying this, that a soft coup has taken place in Iran." "The IRGC generals who carried it out acted in an Eastern, Iranian-style manner. They preserved the position of Supreme Leader and the constitutional foundations of the Islamic Republic, and yet came to power without amending the Constitution," commented Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. In his opinion, Rezaei will act on behalf of Mojtaba Khamenei, but will take into account the opinions of other IRGC generals, including the current commander, Ahmad Vahidi, who is also a member of the Supreme Council.

Mohsen Rezaei, born in 1954, belongs to the "old guard" of the Iranian leadership, which participated in the struggle against the monarchy in the 1970s. As a teenager, he joined the Islamist movement and became one of the founders of the Mansurun (Victorious) group, which fought the Shah's regime, including through armed means. After the overthrow of the monarchy in 1979, this group became the basis for the creation of the IRGC. Rezaei spent some time in prison for his beliefs. At the age of 27, he became head of the IRGC and led it for 16 years, throughout virtually the entire Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988). His name is associated with key Iranian military operations, both victories and defeats. After leaving his post as head of the IRGC, Rezaei not only maintained but also increased his influence. After receiving a doctorate in economics from Tehran University, he served as vice president under President Ebrahim Raisi from 2021 to 2023, overseeing economic policy. Largely through his efforts, the IRGC significantly strengthened its influence, bringing entire sectors of the economy under its control. Rezaei always maintained good relations with Mojtaba Khamenei, but at the same time remained an independent figure with his own vision of state policy.

"He represents the most radical wing not only of the Iranian elite, but also of the IRGC, which is by no means a monolith. Transferring the position of Secretary of the Supreme Council to someone like Rezai indicates that Iran's foreign, domestic, and, so to speak, military policies will become even harsher, even more directed against Israel and the United States. The question of genuine negotiations aimed at reaching a compromise may now be up in the air," Sazhin believes.

It's worth noting that Donald Trump, judging by his public statements, considers Iranian concessions, primarily the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, to be the key element of negotiations with Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has unequivocally stated that his country primarily expects the Iranian authorities to abandon their nuclear program. If this doesn't happen (and Rezai is unlikely to take such a step), the Israelis reserve the right to "independently resolve" this issue, as the Israeli prime minister put it.