Lula's comeback in Brazil dents Trump's ambitions for Latin America

Lula's return to power in Brazil undercuts Trump's Latin America plans

“Brazil will not accept being anyone's backyard,” Brazil's left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said in his victory speech, sending a message clearly directed at Washington.

Elections at home are seldom decided by foreign policy, and this one was no exception. Yet Lula's resistance to what he has called US meddling in Brazilian affairs tapped into a patriotic mood that became a useful campaign asset.

It also fit his broader political identity as a former union leader: confronting powerful people.

Ironically, that appears to have won him President Donald Trump's admiration. “I like Lula, we get along well,” Trump said after the result. “I didn't take sides,” he added, before describing the election as “terrible” and “rigged”.

If that seems contradictory, it is because the relationship between the two men is not simple. Trump did not openly back Lula's opponent Flávio Bolsonaro, who has declined to accept the outcome despite the Supreme Electoral Court finding no evidence of irregularities and his own party acknowledging the result.

But Trump was a close ally of Flávio's father, former President Jair Bolsonaro.

When I interviewed Lula at his home about a year ago, ties had reached their lowest point. He told me he had “no relationship” with Trump, that they had never spoken, and that he had no intention of calling him. Trump had recently imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil, largely as a political reaction to Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, which the US president called a “witch-hunt”.

Instead of carefully avoiding Trump, as some US allies did, Lula pushed back — and it worked.

He delivered forceful speeches about Brazilian sovereignty, criticized US interference in the judicial process, and began wearing a blue cap that said “Brazil belongs to Brazilians”.

His approval ratings rose.

He accused the Bolsonaro family, which had lobbied for the tariffs, of lacking patriotism — a setback for a political right that often claims patriotism as its own territory.

Even some in the agricultural lobby, usually strong Bolsonaro supporters but dependent on US trade, felt Lula had a point.

The US eventually relented and cut the tariffs, though they have since increased again.

Relations then warmed.

The two men spoke at the United Nations and later met in the Oval Office, where Trump called the talks “very good” and Lula said he left “very satisfied”.

That may be another sign that Trump likes a strongman.

So why would Trump be displeased with the outcome?

Latin America has shifted rightward, with Ecuador, Chile, Colombia, Argentina and Peru all electing presidents closely aligned with the Trump administration. Trump has tried to use these allies to assert US dominance in the Western Hemisphere, which he has called the “Donroe Doctrine”.

Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, says Trump believed Brazil would be the “10th and biggest prize” after Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round.

Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, and the younger Bolsonaro was expected to join Trump's “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking.

Brazil also has the world's second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals after China, and the US had been seeking preferential access.

The relationship has improved, but with four more years ahead for Lula, several issues could still trigger renewed tensions.

Earlier this year, Brazil accused the US of trying to cast doubt on its electoral system and denied visas to two State Department officials who planned to visit.

The US called that “baseless” and responded by revoking the Brazilian ambassador's visa.

If Trump continues to call the result “rigged”, more diplomatic fallout is likely.

Lula has also strongly opposed US military action in the region, from the seizure of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela to the bombing of alleged drug-trafficking vessels.

He condemned Washington for labeling Brazil's two major gangs as terrorist organisations after lobbying from Flávio Bolsonaro, and warned of threats to Brazilian sovereignty.

It is a sensitive issue for a political left that remembers the region's brutal 20th Century dictatorships, many of them backed by the CIA in the name of fighting communism.

Then there is US tech.

Lula's campaign accused Meta of favoring Flávio Bolsonaro.

Meta denied that, but admitted moderation problems and technical mistakes had wrongly removed some posts or reduced their reach.

Lula's supporters responded by circulating his messages through a 10-million-strong WhatsApp group to get around the algorithms.

Separately, the Trump administration is unhappy with Pix, Brazil's instant payment system, which has boosted the economy but which the US sees as taking business from Visa and Mastercard.

The relationship has highlighted political divisions.

During the campaign, Bolsonaro supporters waved US flags at rallies and, in one case, an inflatable reading “Trump Nuke Brazil”, while Lula and his supporters accused Flávio Bolsonaro of putting US interests ahead of Brazil's.

Still, the tensions can be exaggerated.

The US remains Brazil's second-largest trading partner after China, and for now the two leaders are on good terms.

Whether that continues will depend on how far the US tries to interfere in Brazilian affairs, and how assertive Lula is in response.