Lula wins fourth term in Brazil but faces hostile Congress and divided country

Lula secures fourth term in Brazil, but confronts a hostile Congress and a split nation

Lula has now won four presidential elections

Brazil’s seasoned left-wing president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been re-elected after a fiercely contested campaign, defeating his right-wing opponent Flávio Bolsonaro.

This is Lula’s fourth victory in a presidential election, after serving two terms as president from January 2003 to December 2010, and again from January 2023.

But the path to his win in Sunday’s run-off was far from easy.

Bolsonaro had defeated Lula in the first round on 4 October, and many did not believe he could reverse the outcome in just three weeks.

He has also gone against a broader pattern in Latin America, where voters have punished incumbents and shifted to the right. Across the region, larger countries such as Argentina, Chile and Colombia now all have conservative leaders in power.

Lula’s campaign came back to life after his first-round loss, fuelled by street protests and a major social media drive.

The former metalworker, who has been the defining figure on Brazil’s left since he first ran for president in 1989, nonetheless now faces the toughest political environment since he first took office in 2003.

His new term, due to begin on 5 January 2027, will start under major domestic and international constraints, including hostility from US President Donald Trump.

Although Trump did not directly endorse Lula’s rival, Flávio Bolsonaro — as he did with the right-wing candidates who later won presidential elections in Colombia and Honduras — there is little doubt his administration would have preferred a conservative leader in this country of 213 million people.

The White House sees Latin America as a sphere of US influence, and the Trump administration wants leaders in office who back its policies, including on defence, security and trade.

It also wants to curb China’s influence in the Western Hemisphere.

Brazil, which is rich in oil and has the world’s second-largest reserves of rare earth minerals, is the only major South American country not led by a right-wing president, and Lula is widely viewed as friendly to China.

Flávio Bolsonaro had pledged to bring Brazil closer to Washington, while Lula warned the US not to meddle in the election and said Brazil would "never fit into anyone's backyard".

But although the White House may be disappointed, Lula’s win will be welcomed by environmentalists who feared a Bolsonaro victory would give Brazil’s powerful agribusiness and mining sectors even more influence.

They pointed to record deforestation and forest fires in the Amazon during the presidency of his father, Jair, arguing that under the younger Bolsonaro, looser environmental rules could once again cause damage to this vital ecosystem.

While Lula’s supporters are jubilant over his victory, the result also shows the country remains deeply divided, with more than 48% of voters backing Bolsonaro.

Along with the challenge of bringing together such a sharply polarised country, Lula will have to govern with the most right-wing Congress in Brazil’s democratic history.

Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) was the biggest winner in the election.

Even so, Lula’s Workers’ Party managed to stage huge rallies before the run-off, demonstrating the strong grassroots backing it still enjoys.

Ahead of the election, Lula described the vote as "a parting of the waters for Brazil".

He promised to close the divide between Brazil’s opposing political camps with "a new way of governing", adding in a WhatsApp livestream before the election that "this country will never be the same again".

Although he gave little detail about what that new way of governing would involve, he insisted he would "remain firm in the fight for a more just country, with opportunities for all and policies directed at the needs of the population".

With a largely hostile Congress, that struggle may prove far more difficult for the veteran leader — who will be 85 by the end of his fourth term — than in his three previous terms in office.