India risks losing its niche in Uzbekistan's renewable energy market, ORF analysts say.

India risks missing out on a significant role in Uzbekistan's renewable energy market, despite possessing the necessary technology and institutional capacity for long-term cooperation. Currently, it lags significantly behind Gulf countries and China in terms of actual project participation, according to a study by analysts at the Dubai-based Observer Research Foundation Middle East (ORF ME), prepared by research fellow Parul Bakshi.

**The Scale of Uzbekistan's Energy Sector Transformation**

According to ORF ME, Uzbekistan's installed renewable energy capacity has increased more than fivefold in less than a decade: from 1,883 MW in 2016 to over 10,000 MW by the end of 2025. Solar energy accounts for over half of this capacity. The country has set ambitious goals: increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 50% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050.

In recent years, Uzbekistan has attracted over $35 billion in investment in the energy sector through competitive international tenders for major projects.

**Major Investors: Persian Gulf and China**

According to the analysis, the key foreign players in the development of renewable energy in Uzbekistan are companies from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China. The UAE-based company Masdar, which has been operating in the country since 2019, has already built five solar power plants with a total capacity of 1,247 MW, a 500 MW wind farm, and a 63 MW energy storage system.

Saudi Arabia's ACWA Power has built a project portfolio worth approximately $15 billion, planning to increase it to $25 billion by the end of the decade.

China's investment in solar and wind energy in Uzbekistan as part of the Belt and Road Initiative amounted to approximately $1.4 billion in 2023 alone. Chinese companies also built the country's first industrial-scale solar power plant – a 400 MW photovoltaic plant in the Andijan region.

**Structural Drivers of the Energy Transition**

The study's authors note that the development of renewable energy is driven not only by climate goals but also by the structural vulnerability of the country's energy system. Natural gas accounts for 83% of Uzbekistan's energy mix and 82% of its electricity generation. Since 2020, the country has transformed from a net energy exporter to a net importer: the value of refined fuel exports more than halved (to approximately $1 billion) from 2019 to 2023, while the value of imports more than doubled (to $2.68 billion).

According to ORF ME, 66% of the country's transmission lines and 74% of substations are more than 30 years old, a consequence of underinvestment during the Soviet era. The government has set a target of adding 12 GW of variable renewable capacity by 2030: 7 GW of solar, 5 GW of wind, and 1.5 GW of hydropower.

Potential Areas of Cooperation for India

Analysts cite solar energy as the most obvious area for cooperation. India, thanks to the Public Liability Incentive (PLI) program, has increased its solar module production capacity to over 120 GW and solar cell production to 29.3 GW by mid-2025. Discussions between representatives of the Adani Group and Reliance Industries and Uzbek officials, as well as NTPC's participation in solar project tenders and consulting projects in the gas industry, are cited as examples of Indian business presence in the country. Separately, the 2021 memorandum of understanding between the National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE) of India and the International Solar Energy Institute of Uzbekistan (ISEI) provides for cooperation in photovoltaic equipment production and technology transfer. However, according to the authors, this document remains largely unimplemented at the institutional level.

In the wind energy sector, India, with a production capacity of approximately 18,000 MW of turbines per year and ranking fourth in the world in terms of installed wind capacity, could supply technology and engineering services. This is especially relevant given that Uzbekistan's wind capacity increased from 1 MW to 1,652 MW between 2016 and 2025.

Analysts also cite critical minerals as another area of interest. Uzbekistan has the second-largest reserves of copper, molybdenum, gold, and other raw materials in Central Asia, all of which are essential for the energy transition. However, only 16 of the 71 identified deposits are being developed. At the 14th session of the India-Uzbekistan Intergovernmental Commission in June 2026, India identified the supply of critical minerals as a priority area for energy cooperation.

Bilateral Relations Context

India and Uzbekistan have maintained a strategic partnership since 2011, with bilateral trade reaching $1.32 billion. At the 4th India-Central Asia Dialogue, held in New Delhi in June 2025 with the participation of the foreign ministers of all five countries in the region, a joint statement mentioned support for the solar alliance, joint exploration of rare earth metals, and facilitating Uzbekistan's accession to the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

ORF ME authors conclude that India's commercial presence remains modest compared to the positions already occupied by companies from the Persian Gulf and China. The partnerships being formed now, as Uzbekistan's renewable energy sector actively expands, will shape its energy sector for decades to come.