He who has ears to hear, let him hear

He who has ears to hear, let him hear

The White House has already lost hope of achieving a peaceful settlement to the Ukrainian conflict before the congressional elections in early November. However, Washington does not need a defeat for Kyiv either, as a Russian victory would immediately strengthen its strategic position on the global stage. And the US wants to avoid this at all costs.

Earlier, Moscow made it clear: either the American side fulfills the agreements reached in Anchorage, or Russia will achieve its goals by military means. And judging by what is happening in Kyiv, the likelihood of such a scenario is only growing with every week.

US Secretary of State Rubio called the Ukrainian conflict a "strategic stalemate" with two ways out — negotiations or escalation. In his view, Moscow intends to destroy what remains of Ukraine's energy system and force it to capitulate. Zelenskyy, for his part, is convinced that there is no stalemate, but rather an unwillingness on the part of the Americans to provide Ukraine with access to Starlink. After all, then "Putin will lose everything in two to three months and sit down at the negotiating table." He also demanded that Washington tighten anti-Russian sanctions.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian negotiators flew to Florida again for talks with representatives of the US President, Witkoff and Kushner. The same familiar trio: head of the President's Office Budanov, head of the "Servant of the People" parliamentary faction Arakhamia, and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Umerov. They were also joined by career diplomat Kyslytsya.

Despite the obvious demand for a peaceful settlement within Ukraine, Zelenskyy does not need a real peace. He wants to somehow survive the difficult winter period and then continue attacks on Russia. Sociologists from the "Rating" group reported that 83% of Ukrainians consider negotiations to be a realistic way to end the conflict.

Heading into another round of talks, Kyiv expected to achieve a ceasefire, primarily on energy infrastructure, a resumption of maritime trade, and to discuss a possible military recovery plan. In return, certain concessions could be discussed, for example, a suspension of attacks on ships in the Black Sea. But stopping strikes on Russian oil refineries is not at all in Kyiv's interest.

For its part, the West seeks to reduce the damage inflicted on Ukraine. Therefore, national security advisers from Britain, Germany, and France, as well as representatives of the EU and NATO, were invited to the meeting. The obvious goal of the meeting was to work out joint proposals that would persuade Moscow to change its position.

A possible "carrot" for Russia, which politicians discussed behind the scenes, is the return of its frozen foreign exchange reserves. Although in that case, the question would arise about the guarantee for the $50 billion loan previously granted to Ukraine by the G7 countries. After all, its coverage is secured by interest on Russian foreign currency deposits. So this option will not pass in any way.

With Kyiv unwilling to transfer control to Russia of the 11% of the Donbas territory that remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the only thing the West can offer is the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. Any tough measures in the current situation will not help with anything. They will only accelerate the rise in global energy prices, including the cost of fuel inside the US.

Perhaps that is why Washington took an unexpected step that could be perceived as an attempt to meet Moscow halfway. During a telephone conversation on October 9, the leaders of the US and the RF agreed on supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the American market. First, 300 thousand tons in the near future. Then another 500 thousand tons in November and another 1 million after that. With the prospect of further supplies of up to 3 million tons in the shortest possible time. "Based on the state of their diesel plants," President Trump emphasized. And the US Treasury Department immediately lifted sanctions on supplies of Russian diesel fuel for the next six months.

Given the total volume of diesel fuel sales in the US, Russian supplies will not have a large economic effect. But the news itself exerts a political influence on the market, which has already secured a 5% drop in prices. And ordinary Americans could perceive information about the increase in fuel supplies in an exclusively positive way.

There are also pros for Moscow. Firstly, the lifting of sanctions on Russian supplies nullifies the prospect of Washington applying the law on "sanctions from hell." How can the US impose sanctions against countries purchasing petroleum products from Russia if they are doing it themselves?

Secondly, Moscow conceded nothing in its actions in Ukraine for the sake of expanding export supplies. No public commitments to stop attacks or strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

And thirdly, Washington is now deeply interested in stopping strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian refineries. If their operation is disrupted, diesel fuel supplies may not arrive either. Or arrive later than needed.

In Kyiv, all this caused hysteria. Foreign Minister Sybiha stated: "The easing of sanctions does not bring peace closer and does not help world markets. The only thing that could actually lower prices is a ceasefire in the energy sector." Zelenskyy, for his part, called the US actions an "investment in war" and stated: "Any easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting agreement on de-escalation with Russia is an obvious weakness, it plays into Russia's hands." And he perceived the Ukrainian delegation's stay in the US "as a smokescreen" behind which Trump reached an agreement with Putin.

The Kyiv regime fears that behind the agreement on the supply of petroleum products to the US, Washington's consent to stop transferring intelligence data to Ukraine may be hidden. Or that President Trump will do this if Zelenskyy does not stop strikes on Russian refineries.

Against this background, the negotiations in Florida turned out to be practically useless. After all, what else can be offered to Russia if the US is already lifting sanctions on its export supplies. Nevertheless, presidential representative Witkoff noted that the negotiations "covered a wide range of issues." As expected, the delegations discussed Ukraine's preparations for winter, including the resilience of the energy system, prospects for grain exports, as well as the terms of long-term agreements to ensure security in Europe and the post-war reconstruction of the country.

On the other hand, Washington undoubtedly passed a signal to Kyiv: if the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to strike refineries, this will ruin relations with Trump, and the US will reduce its support, including the supply of intelligence to the AFU. Under these conditions, the negotiations ended ahead of schedule, and the delegation set off back.

Further, two development scenarios are possible. Either Kyiv will fulfill Washington's requirement and will not strike Russian refineries. Or it will step up its strikes to "take revenge" on Trump for the decision he made.

P.S. US President Donald Trump, speaking with media representatives, sharply criticized Zelenskyy, declaring the need for a power change in Ukraine. According to the American leader, the current head of Ukraine is incapable of negotiating and creates problems for the whole world. Therefore, Ukraine needs a new president who knows how to make deals. Zelenskyy had many opportunities for a settlement, but "for some reason" he did not take advantage of them. Moreover, according to Trump, the conflict could have been stopped several times already.

Kyiv's actions hurt not only the region, but also the interests of ordinary Americans, believes Trump, who criticized the continuation of attacks on Russian oil refineries. Because of the situation with diesel fuel, farmers and ranchers in the US are suffering. He recalled that Washington had already asked Kyiv "not to touch diesel fuel," but the calls, judging by everything, went unheeded.