Entrepreneurs' assessments indicate a stable business climate – CERR survey

Entrepreneurs' Assessments of a Stable Business Climate – CERR Survey

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented the results of an analysis of the business climate in Uzbekistan, based on monthly surveys of entrepreneurs across the country. Based on the data obtained, a consolidated business climate indicator was created that characterizes assessments of the current state of business and expectations for the next three months.

**Dynamics of the Composite Business Climate in Uzbekistan**

In July, the Composite Business Climate Index stood at 56 points, 5 points higher than the same period last year. Index values above 50 points indicate a predominance of optimism among entrepreneurs.

According to estimates, the current business climate index increased by two points to 46 points, while the expectations index stood at 66 points, an increase of 7 points compared to last year.

Business conditions have improved for four out of ten entrepreneurs (39%) over the past three months. Almost half of respondents rate the current business situation as "good" (44%), and one in four businesses has increased their workforce over the past three months (25%). More than two-thirds of entrepreneurs (68%) expect demand for their products to increase in the next three months.

**Business Climate Index Dynamics by Industry**

Compared to last year, the business climate index increased in agriculture, construction, and services, while a slight decline was noted in industry.

In agriculture, the composite business climate indicator increased by 11 points compared to last year, reaching 61 points. In the agricultural sector, both current assessments (+5 points) and entrepreneurs' expectations (+19 points) improved. Forty-three percent of entrepreneurs (41% in 2025) reported an improvement in the situation over the past three months, while 43% (43%) reported an increase in demand for their products. In construction, the composite business climate indicator significantly improved (+10 points) compared to last year, reaching 60 points. Both current assessments (+2 points) and business expectations (+18 points) improved in the industry. Over the past three months, the current situation in construction has improved for one in four out of 10 companies (42%, unchanged from 2025); almost half (46%) of construction companies reported an increase in demand for their products, which is higher than last year's level (44%).

The composite business climate indicator in industry reached 41 points (-8 points). This decline is due to assessments of the current situation in the sector (32 points), while expectations remain quite high (51 points). Expectations regarding employment in the next three months have become more subdued. Almost one in two industrial companies expects an increase in the number of employees (46%). At the same time, assessments of the business outlook remain positive. Two-thirds of respondents (66%) expect improvements in the next three months. In the services sector, the consolidated business climate indicator improved significantly (+8 points), remaining in the positive range (62 points). These changes are driven by both improved current business assessments (+8 points) and increased expectations regarding development prospects over the next three months (+9 points). Almost half of service sector companies assess the current business situation as good (48%). Expectations for the next three months have become more confident (+3 points), with almost three-quarters of companies (74%) forecasting improvements. The proportion of companies (+3 points) reporting an improvement in their business situation over the past three months also increased (40%).

**Barriers to Doing Business Are Reducing**

More than half of entrepreneurs (59%) reported no barriers to doing business. The most favorable situation was observed in construction (71%) and services (62%). In agriculture (55%) and manufacturing (45%), almost one in two entrepreneurs reported no barriers.

Among the factors limiting entrepreneurial activity, the most frequently cited were taxation issues (19%), bank financing (15%), other financial difficulties (12%), and insufficient demand (8%). The share of entrepreneurs reporting various financial difficulties increased most significantly (+4 percentage points).

By industry, in agriculture, almost one in three entrepreneurs reported financial difficulties (29%, +16 percentage points). In construction, difficulties obtaining loans were most frequently reported (13%, +13 percentage points). In manufacturing, the share of companies facing insufficient demand increased (13%, +4 percentage points), while in the service sector, tax administration remained the main constraint (16%).