El Niño could pose a risk of a new crisis in some Asian countries — study

El Nino could pose a risk of a new crisis in some Asian countries — study

There is a possibility of civil unrest following severe natural disasters in a number of Asian countries. This could be caused by the El Nino phenomenon.

Analysts note that weather events associated with El Nino could further worsen the food security situation in Asia.

One of the factors complicating the situation is the consequences of the war in Iran. The conflicts have had a negative impact on the supply of fuel and fertilizers necessary for agriculture.

In Indonesia, forest fires have made harvesting palm oil difficult. In India, the monsoon rains, which are crucial for rice cultivation, are nearly 15 percent below normal. In Thailand, the sugar harvest is expected to decrease.

According to analysts, a new food-related shock in Afghanistan and Myanmar could increase the risk of a humanitarian crisis.

The study includes India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Pakistan among the countries with a high risk of deteriorating food security and civil unrest.

The report states that if pressure related to food prices and availability intensifies, and governments fail to respond effectively to the situation, unrest and political instability could arise in these countries.

In August 2026, global food prices reached their highest level since the end of 2022. It is noted that this is being caused by severe heat and drought in Europe, the likelihood of the El Nino phenomenon occurring in Asia, as well as the war in Ukraine and Iran, and disruptions in trade routes.

The El Nino climate phenomenon has intensified since the Industrial Revolution, becoming much more severe in recent decades compared to the previous millennium.

What is El Nino?

El Nino is a climate phenomenon associated with the anomalously warm waters in the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean. It can cause droughts, heavy rainfall, floods, and other extreme weather events. These, in turn, affect crop yields and food prices.

One of the strongest "super El Nino" events in history was observed in 1876–1877. It caused severe drought in India, China, and Brazil, leading to massive crop failures and famine. The death toll from the cataclysm reached up to 50 million people.