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EBRD raises Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

EBRD lifts Uzbekistan’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 7.5%

Uzbekistan’s economy is projected to expand by 7.5% in 2026 and 6% in 2027, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) September Regional Economic Prospects report.

The EBRD upgraded its 2026 outlook for Uzbekistan from the 6.5% it forecast in June, after the economy grew 8.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026. The services sector was the biggest driver of that expansion, contributing 4.4 percentage points to total GDP growth over the period.

Industrial output rose 8.8% year-on-year in the first six months of 2026, while trade turnover increased by 13.5%. Economic activity was also accompanied by an 18.4% rise in wages and a 13% increase in remittances. Inflation, meanwhile, picked up again after easing in May. Annual inflation stood at 6.4% in July. In this context, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan has kept its key policy rate at 14%, unchanged since March 2025.

Uzbekistan’s results come as Central Asia continues to post solid economic growth. The EBRD said the region’s economy expanded by 5.9% in the first half of 2026. It expects Central Asian growth to reach 5.8% for the full year before easing to 5.3% in 2027. Uzbekistan remains one of the contributors to regional expansion, with its projected 7.5% growth for 2026 above the regional estimate.

The EBRD also pointed to a number of external risks that could weigh on the outlook. These include a possible slowdown in the Russian economy and extended disruptions to Russian fuel supplies. The report said ongoing fuel supply disruptions could amplify the impact of elevated global energy prices. Developments in Russia are also important for the regional outlook because of economic ties with Central Asian countries.

For Uzbekistan, the EBRD expects growth to slow from the 8.5% seen in the first half of 2026 to 7.5% for the full year, before easing further to 6% in 2027. Even so, the latest forecast is a one-percentage-point increase from the bank’s June projection for 2026.

remittancesebrdindustrial productiongdp forecastuzbekistaninflationcentral asiaeconomic growth

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