Building boom puts 300,000 people in the path of potential Himalayan disasters

Building surge leaves 300,000 people exposed to possible Himalayan disasters

Tourism and housing construction has accelerated in parts of Nepal and India’s Uttarakhand

A new study indicates that at least 300,000 people in parts of the Himalayan region may now be living in the path of possible disasters.

Researchers found that built-up land in high-risk areas of northern Nepal, parts of south-eastern Tibet and a section of India’s Uttarakhand increased by about 45% between 2016 and 2023.

In places especially vulnerable to flooding from glacial lakes, development rose even more sharply, climbing by almost 78% over the same period, according to the peer-reviewed study in Scientific Reports.

The scientists behind the research said the real number of people at risk could be far higher, because they examined only a specific area and not nearby regions facing similar dangers.

The study was completed before August’s catastrophic mass floods in Nepal, which killed more than 1,400 people and left thousands missing. More recently, there have been several smaller incidents, including flooding on the Budhi Gandaki river on 11 October that damaged 200 houses, swept away five bridges and left five people missing.

The major tourist hub of Pokhara has seen major development in recent years

Nine researchers from the UK, Nepal and India examined areas up to 50km (30 miles) downstream from Himalayan rivers, as well as around 1,360 glacial lakes.

They found substantial development in these zones, including growth in tourism facilities, infrastructure and real estate.

This is especially visible in Pokhara, a major tourism centre at the foot of the Himalayas that has expanded greatly over the past 30 years to accommodate a huge rise in visitors.

Mayor Dhana Raj Acharya says dealing with the danger posed by the Seti Gandaki River, which originates in the Annapurna mountain range and runs through the city, is a major challenge. He says many old buildings are only 5m (16ft) from river banks, despite new rules requiring greater distance.

“Where we move them, and how we do that, is the real challenge.”

To the north lies the world-famous Annapurna trekking region, which has also seen a sharp rise in settlements along river banks, some of which have been hit by recent floods and landslides.

Phurpa Chhiring Lama, who operates a homestay there, says he feels powerless. Usually all 20 of his rooms are full at this time of year, the peak trekking season, but now only five are occupied. “We have been doing this business for more than 40 years, but we’ve never seen this kind of disaster.”

Krishna Gauchan, whose hotel is near the glacier-fed Modi river, is also concerned. “This river can flood if the glacier collapses or if the glacial lake bursts out and we are living in constant fear.”

Tourism investors are promoting some of these places as destinations without accounting for the risks, says Khagendra Poudel, a geographer at a local campus of Tribhuvan University. He says it is similar to what is happening in parts of north India’s Himalayan valleys, which attract major pilgrimages.

The president of the Hotel Association Pokhara says tourism businesses have expanded “without any proper planning” in the region and have been promoted “haphazardly”.

“By the time disasters hit, it is too late,” says Laxman Subedi. “As a professional body we are trying to create awareness among tourism entrepreneurs and investors.”

Tourism is not the only issue. The areas around the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli rivers have also seen a major increase in hydropower plant construction.

“As river valleys become increasingly populated, development decisions being made today will shape disaster risk for decades to come,” warns the study’s lead author, University of Leeds glaciologist C Scott Watson.

And the number of buildings at risk may be even higher than the researchers identified.

The study defined at-risk buildings as those within 50 vertical metres (164ft) of a river or glacial lake’s surface.

But during the devastating flooding on 26 August, people in Rasuwa district said the river level had risen by 70m (230ft) in some places, meaning even buildings relatively far from the banks were struck and buried by debris-sludge.

The dangers across these areas are largely driven by warming in the Himalayan region, which scientists say is happening at twice the global rate. This has accelerated the melting of glaciers, icefields, snowpacks and ground that is normally frozen year-round.

That, in turn, can destabilize mountain slopes that are also often shaken by earthquakes, triggering devastating downstream disasters.

Rapid melting is also causing glacial lakes to expand until they burst, producing deadly floods. Nepal alone has recorded about 30 such events since 1940.

Another problem is that rising temperatures are causing rain to fall at high altitudes where it used to snow, leading to slope failures, rock and ice falls, and other disasters.

Alton Byers, a mountain geographer at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the study, says it should act as a “springboard” for more effective early-warning systems and other precautionary steps.

But that will be difficult to achieve. Campaigners say building rules are not being enforced on the ground and that development has been haphazard in too many places over the years.

Roads, hydropower projects, hotels and market towns have spread across the low, flat land beside rivers, which is accessible and suitable for building, says Prof Surya Raj Acharya, an urban planning expert and registrar at the University of Nepal.

Those responsible have often ignored safeguards, including staying away from the river bank, he adds.

“A fragile ecosystem like the Himalaya demands stricter planning and building regulations than elsewhere, yet these rules have been weak and poorly enforced.”

Nepalese authorities say they are trying to tackle these problems. Settlements within 15m (49ft) of the riverbank along the recently devastated Rasuwa-Bhotekoshi corridor will soon be banned, according to the national disaster agency. Similar rules are expected to be introduced in other river corridors soon.

“It is a challenging job because people in many places have sentimental attachments with their land and property but we cannot ignore the increasing risks,” says chief executive Dharam Raj Uprety.

There has been “rampant construction” in the Indian state of Uttarakhand in areas at risk from flooding, activists say

A similar pattern has emerged across Nepal’s western border in India’s Uttarakhand state, where maximum tourism limits and environmental rules have been bypassed in the name of economic growth, activist Anoop Nautiyal claims.

On paper, zoning rules ban the construction of houses and infrastructure too close to river banks, “but on the ground we see no implementation of such rules.

“You can see rampant construction all over.”

On 12 October, the Uttarakhand government approved new floodplain zoning rules to control land use and development. “Its objective is to protect life, property and important infrastructure from possible flood damage while maintaining the natural flow of flood waters,” the state cabinet decision said.

But Basanta Raj Adhikari, director of the Centre for Disaster Studies at Tribuvan University, believes it will not be possible to eliminate such threats entirely.

He suggests insurance grades could be another way to encourage people to build in less risky places. If authorities mapped areas as high, moderate and low risk, he believes insurance coverage would “follow accordingly” so that people who build homes in safer areas receive better protection.

For now, however, construction across the region shows no sign of slowing.