Alpari expects the sum exchange rate to be in the range of 11,800–12,050

Alpari forecasts the Uzbek som exchange rate to range from 11,800 to 12,050 som

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) —

The Uzbek som exchange rate against the US dollar is showing relative stability, although the national currency has weakened slightly over the past week.

According to Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova, the USD/UZS currency pair will likely trade between 11,800 and 12,050 som per dollar during the new week of August.

As of August 13, the US dollar was valued at 11,928 som. Over the week, the som lost 0.39%. The previous week, the national currency strengthened by more than 1%, and by the end of July, its appreciation was 0.69%.

According to Bodrova, the sum's exchange rate is supported by the Central Bank's key rate, set at 14%, the attractiveness of savings in the national currency, and capital inflows driven by economic growth.

The gold market remains an additional factor. In the second quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan became one of the top three central banks globally in gold purchases. The country's gold reserves increased by 16 tonnes. Large net purchases during this period were recorded by Poland (51 tonnes) and China (33 tonnes). Kazakhstan purchased 15 tonnes.

Overall, central banks worldwide purchased 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, 62% more than in the same period last year. According to the analyst, this was a record volume for the second quarter.

At the same time, foreign trade is putting pressure on the sum. According to Bodrova, gold exports are significantly lower than last year's volumes, leading to a reduction in foreign exchange earnings.

The analyst also points out the risk associated with the high share of gold in reserves. A decline in global gold prices could lead to a decrease in their valuation.

According to Bodrova, the factors supporting and undermining the national currency are currently balanced, and there are no signs of a sharp breakout of the USD/UZS pair beyond its current range.