83 percent probability of a strong El Niño: what did the satellites show?
According to satellite observations, the 2026 El Niño resembles the powerful 1997–1998 event in terms of warm water distribution in the Pacific Ocean. According to forecasts by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is an 83 percent probability that El Niño will be strong or very strong in the first three months of 2027.
**Probability of a strong El Niño is 83 percent: what did the satellites show?**
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that recurs approximately every two to seven years and is associated with rising water temperatures in the equatorial regions of the Pacific Ocean.
Its particularly strong phases in 1997–1998 and 2015–2016 had a serious impact on the weather in various regions of the world. The consequences manifested in forest fires in Indonesia and the Amazon basin, reduced crop yields due to drought in southern Africa, and heavy rainfall and flooding in Southern California.
In the new comparison, the deviation of the Pacific Ocean surface height from average indicators was studied. The maps show the status as of October 13, 1997, and October 12, 2026.
Data for the first period was obtained from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, and for the second from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite. They were processed by scientists from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Ocean surface height helps track where heat is accumulating: as water warms, it expands. For this reason, an above-normal rise in water levels in the central and eastern parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can indicate heat accumulation associated with El Niño.
On the maps, the color red indicates areas where the water level is above average, white is normal, and blue indicates lower levels. To see short-term natural phenomena more clearly, the effects of seasonal cycles and long-term trends were removed from the data.
Usually, trade winds push warm water toward the western part of the Pacific Ocean. When the winds weaken, this water begins to shift to the east. As a result of the interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, the winds weaken further, increasing the accumulation of warm water in the central and eastern regions.
As reported in the publication, the 2026 El Niño developed faster compared to the 1997–1998 event. By October, a similar picture was observed in both periods: the water level decreased in the west of the ocean and rose in the east, with warm water masses reaching the coast of South America.
The strong El Niño of 2015–2016, however, proceeded differently. At that time, warm waters along the equator did not reach the coast of South America to the extent they do now. This also led to differences in the regional distribution of rainfall.
Although NOAA's forecast of October 8, 2026, shows a high probability of a strong El Niño early next year, this does not mean that floods or droughts will definitely occur in specific areas.